Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Kickoff: December 25, 2024, 10:00 AM
Broadcast: Netflix
Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Team Overview
The Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) enter this matchup atop the AFC West, looking to solidify their dominance in the conference. However, they’ll be without star defensive lineman Chris Jones, a key player who anchors their top-tier run defense. The Chiefs’ offense is led by their efficient third-down conversion rate (1st in the league at 51%), but their rushing game (15th in the league) could face challenges against Pittsburgh’s stout defensive front.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) sit atop the AFC North and are known for their balanced attack and physical style of play. While their passing game ranks near the bottom (25th), their rushing game (11th) has kept them competitive. Defensively, the Steelers are solid on third downs (5th in the league) and rank in the top 10 for both rushing defense and points allowed per game.
Key Matchups
- Chiefs’ Passing Game vs. Steelers’ Secondary
Kansas City’s 12th-ranked passing attack will rely heavily on its aerial efficiency without a dominant rushing threat. Pittsburgh’s secondary, while not elite, is respectable and should benefit from the absence of Chris Jones, potentially keeping the Chiefs’ offense one-dimensional. - Steelers’ Rushing Attack vs. Chiefs’ Run Defense
Without Chris Jones, Kansas City’s 3rd-ranked rushing defense takes a significant hit. Pittsburgh’s run game, led by a powerful offensive line and physical running backs, is well-equipped to exploit this absence. - Third-Down Efficiency
The Chiefs lead the NFL in third-down conversions, a critical advantage in close games. However, the Steelers’ 5th-ranked third-down defense presents a strong counter, especially with the home crowd behind them. - Late-Game Scenarios and Free Throws
With the spread at just 2.5 points, this game could come down to late-game execution. Pittsburgh’s defensive toughness and Kansas City’s efficiency on critical downs will likely play a pivotal role in deciding the outcome.
Prediction
The absence of Chris Jones tilts the balance slightly in Pittsburgh’s favor. Without their defensive leader, the Chiefs may struggle to contain the Steelers’ rushing attack, which could dominate time of possession and keep Kansas City’s high-powered offense off the field.
While the Chiefs have the edge in overall talent, Pittsburgh’s physicality, home-field advantage, and superior run game could help them cover the spread. Additionally, Kansas City’s reliance on late-game heroics may not suffice against a disciplined Steelers defense.
- Prediction: Steelers cover +2.5
- Final Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Chiefs 20
