Quick Pick: Memphis -10.5
Memphis’ efficient offense (78.4 PPG, 79th) and elite three-point shooting (39.5% 3P%, 8th) give them a strong edge against a Rice team that struggles offensively (41.7% FG, 326th). Memphis also thrives in transition and forces turnovers (8.0 SPG, 114th), a potential problem for Rice, which lacks a strong ball movement game. While Rice is a solid rebounding team (35.6 RPG, 46th), Memphis’ defensive intensity and superior perimeter shooting should allow them to pull away late. Memphis has been dominant on the road (6-1 SU) and should control this game.
Game Preview: Rice vs. Memphis
Memphis Tigers (17-4, 11-10 ATS, 10-11 O/U, 6-1 Away, 8-2 Home)
Rice Owls (11-10, 10-10 ATS, 10-10 O/U, 3-4 Away, 6-4 Home)
1. Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
Memphis Tigers
- Scoring Efficiency: 78.4 PPG (79th), 47.2% FG (60th), 39.5% 3P% (8th) – One of the best three-point shooting teams in the country.
- Rebounding Struggles: 32.5 RPG (183rd), 9.5 ORPG (140th) – Below average on the glass, could be an issue against Rice.
- Turnover Concerns: 14.5 TO per game (338th) – One of the worst turnover rates in the nation.
- Defensive Strengths: 41.3% opponent FG% (86th), 31.9% opponent 3P% (155th) – Strong perimeter defense.
- Forcing Turnovers: 8.0 SPG (114th), 3.8 BPG (80th) – Creates extra possessions with defensive pressure.
Rice Owls
- Offensive Struggles: 70.0 PPG (285th), 41.7% FG (326th), 32.4% 3P% (262nd) – Struggles to score efficiently.
- Rebounding Edge: 35.6 RPG (46th), 11.0 ORPG (52nd) – One of their few strengths.
- Weak Ball Movement: 11.8 APG (319th) – Struggles to generate good looks.
- Defensive Strengths: 40.7% opponent FG% (47th), 31.0% opponent 3P% (68th) – Defends well but faces an elite Memphis shooting team.
- Turnover Creation Issues: 4.8 SPG (325th) – Won’t be able to exploit Memphis’ biggest weakness (turnovers).
2. Key Metrics Comparison
MetricMemphisRankRiceRankPoints Per Game78.479th70.0285thFG%47.2%60th41.7%326th3P%39.5%8th32.4%262ndFT%71.9%181st68.3%291stRebounds32.5183rd35.646thOffensive Rebounds9.5140th11.052nd
Defensive Comparison
MetricMemphisRankRiceRankOpponent PPG72.4234th68.798thOpponent FG%41.3%86th40.7%47thOpponent 3P%31.9%155th31.0%68thDefensive Rebounds31.4194th31.0166thSteals8.0114th4.8325thBlocks3.880th3.250th
3. Pace & Tempo
- Memphis prefers a fast tempo, attacking in transition and relying on quick ball movement for open threes. Their turnover-forcing defense also fuels fast breaks.
- Rice plays slower, relying on offensive rebounds to generate extra opportunities rather than quick possessions.
- Edge: Memphis – Their ability to push the pace will force Rice into uncomfortable situations, limiting their second-chance scoring.
4. Home/Away Performance
TeamRecord (SU)ATSO/UHome Record (SU)Road Record (SU)Memphis17-411-1010-118-26-1Rice11-1010-1010-106-43-4
- Memphis has been dominant on the road (6-1 SU), proving they can handle tough environments.
- Rice is just 6-4 at home, meaning their home-court edge is minimal.
- Edge: Memphis – Their road form suggests they won’t be fazed by Rice’s crowd.
5. Matchup-Specific Factors
- Perimeter Shooting Edge: Memphis is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country (39.5%), while Rice struggles offensively from deep (32.4% 3P%, 262nd).
- Turnover Battle: Memphis is prone to turnovers, but Rice ranks 325th in steals, meaning they are unlikely to exploit this weakness.
- Rebounding Edge for Rice: Rice is much better on the glass (46th in rebounding vs. Memphis’ 183rd ranking), which could help them stay competitive for a while.
- Memphis’ Ability to Control Pace: Memphis thrives in transition, whereas Rice plays slower. If Memphis can force Rice to speed up, they will dominate.
6. Game Odds & Betting Insights
TeamSpreadTotalMoneylineMemphis-10.5 (-110)o145.5 (-110)-550Rice+10.5 (-110)u145.5 (-110)+400
- Memphis has been slightly profitable ATS (11-10), while Rice is 10-10 ATS, showing no clear betting trend.
- Over/Under is a toss-up as both teams are 10-11 O/U.
7. Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner & Final Score
Memphis 78, Rice 66
Spread Pick: Memphis -10.5
- Memphis has a significant shooting edge and road dominance (6-1 SU).
- Rice lacks the firepower to keep up, especially if Memphis controls the pace.
- The biggest concern is Memphis’ turnover issues, but Rice doesn’t force many, limiting their ability to capitalize.
Confidence Level: Moderate
- Memphis should cover, but their turnover struggles make this a medium-confidence pick rather than a high-confidence play.
Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Memphis -10.5
Lean: Under 145.5
Predicted Score: Memphis 78, Rice 66
Memphis’ elite three-point shooting, defensive intensity, and ability to push the tempo should allow them to pull away in the second half. Rice’s rebounding edge might keep them close early, but their inefficient offense makes it hard to trust them to cover. Memphis -10.5 is the best play.
