Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Date: Jan 11, 2025
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Network: Amazon Prime Video
Matchup Overview
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers renew their fierce AFC North rivalry in the playoffs. The Ravens, with the league’s top-ranked offense and rushing attack, are heavy 10-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers bring a gritty defense and opportunistic offense into what should be a hard-fought matchup.
Team Breakdown
Baltimore Ravens (12-5, 1st in AFC North)
The Ravens boast the NFL’s best offense, leading the league in total yards (434 per game) and rushing yards (187.6 per game). Their ability to dominate the ground game has translated to 30.5 points per game (3rd) and an impressive 48.2% third-down conversion rate (3rd).
Defensively, the Ravens allow 342.9 yards per game (T-11th) but rank 1st against the run (80.1 yards per game). Their weakness lies in their pass defense, which ranks 31st in the league (244.1 yards per game allowed).
Key Strengths:
- Dominant rushing offense.
- Efficient third-down offense and defense.
- Physicality and game control.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 2nd in AFC North)
The Steelers are built around a strong defense, particularly against the run, where they rank 6th (98.7 rushing yards allowed per game). Their pass defense has struggled, allowing 228 yards per game (25th), but they excel in keeping points off the board, ranking 8th in points allowed (20.4).
Offensively, the Steelers are inconsistent, ranking 21st in total yards (339.6 per game). They rely on their 11th-ranked rushing attack (127.4 yards per game) to establish tempo, but their passing game struggles, ranking 27th (192 yards per game).
Key Strengths:
- Strong run defense.
- Efficient red-zone defense.
- Balanced offensive approach when clicking.
Key Matchups
- Ravens’ Rushing Attack vs. Steelers’ Run Defense
The Ravens lead the league in rushing yards, but the Steelers have a top-10 run defense. Whichever team wins this battle will control the tempo and dictate the game. - Steelers’ Offense vs. Ravens’ Pass Defense
The Ravens’ biggest vulnerability is their pass defense. The Steelers must find a way to exploit this weakness if they want to keep pace with Baltimore’s high-scoring offense. - Third-Down Efficiency
The Ravens rank 3rd in third-down conversions offensively and defensively, while the Steelers are mid-tier. Success on third downs could swing momentum significantly.
Prediction and Best Bet
The Ravens are heavy 10-point favorites, and their high-powered offense gives them a clear advantage. However, the Steelers’ strong run defense and rivalry familiarity could keep this closer than expected. While Baltimore is likely to win, Pittsburgh has a chance to cover the spread.
Prediction:
- Winner: Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Steelers +10
Best Bet:
Take the Steelers +10. The rivalry, combined with Pittsburgh’s strong defense, should keep this game closer than the double-digit spread suggests. Confidence Level: Medium.
