NFC Championship Game Preview
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders
Date: January 26, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Channel: FOX
Game Overview
The NFC Championship Game brings together two NFC East powerhouses, the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Both teams have dominated their respective strengths this season, setting the stage for an intense, physical matchup.
Game Odds (via Sports Interaction):
- Spread: Eagles -6.5 (-105) | Commanders +6.5 (-125)
- Moneyline: Eagles -300 | Commanders +240
- Total: 47.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Team Records and Trends
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U | Away Record | Home Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 14-5-0 | 12-6-1 | 12-7-0 | 7-3-0 | 7-2-0 |
| PHI | 16-3-0 | 12-7-0 | 8-11-0 | 6-2-0 | 10-1-0 |
Washington Commanders (14-5)
The Commanders are riding high after an impressive playoff run, but this game presents their toughest test yet. Washington boasts a balanced offense and a secondary capable of limiting big plays, but their glaring weakness against the run (30th in the league) could prove costly against the Eagles.
- ATS Trends: Washington has been reliable against the spread this season, covering in 12 of 19 games. They’ve also been strong on the road, going 7-3 straight up and consistently covering spreads.
- Key to Success: Washington’s ability to keep this game close depends on its run game and secondary. If they can control time of possession and limit Jalen Hurts’ big-play ability, they’ll have a shot to cover.
Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
The Eagles have looked like the NFC’s most complete team all season, ranking 5th in total offense and 1st in total defense. They’ve been dominant at home, posting a 10-1 record and routinely covering large spreads.
- ATS Trends: Philadelphia has been consistent against the spread as well, going 12-7 ATS overall and an impressive 10-1 straight up at home. Their defensive metrics (1st in yards per game, 2nd in points allowed) give them an edge.
- Key to Success: Philadelphia’s game plan will center on dominating the trenches. Their 2nd-ranked rushing offense will look to exploit Washington’s 30th-ranked rushing defense, and their defensive front will aim to shut down the Commanders’ run game.
Key Matchups
- Eagles’ Rushing Attack vs. Commanders’ Run Defense:
Philadelphia’s 2nd-ranked rushing offense (179.3 YPG) is tailor-made to exploit Washington’s 30th-ranked rushing defense (137.5 YPG allowed). The Eagles will look to control the clock and wear down Washington’s defensive front. - Commanders’ Secondary vs. Eagles’ Passing Game:
Washington’s pass defense (3rd in the league, 189.5 YPG allowed) has the tools to slow down Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ aerial attack. If the Commanders can keep DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown in check, they can force Philadelphia into longer drives. - Third-Down Efficiency:
The Eagles (41.7%, 10th) and Commanders (45.6%, 6th) both excel on third downs. Winning these critical moments will determine which team controls momentum and field position.
Prediction
This game will likely come down to the Eagles’ ability to exploit Washington’s run defense. Philadelphia’s balanced attack and elite defense should give them the upper hand, especially at home, where they’ve been nearly unbeatable (10-1 straight up). However, Washington has been a resilient team, covering the spread consistently on the road and keeping games close with their strong run game and defense.
Final Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 20
Best Bet:
- Eagles -6.5 (-105): Philadelphia’s dominance at home, combined with their significant advantage in the trenches, makes them the safer pick to cover the spread.
- Confidence Level: High
