(4) Penn State vs. (9) Boise State
Date/Time: Dec 31, 2024, 4:30 PM
Channel: ESPN
Spread: Penn State -10.5
Overview
The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2, 2nd in Big Ten) and Boise State Broncos (12-1, 1st in MWC) clash in a matchup between a stout Penn State defense and a high-powered Boise State offense. Penn State enters as a 10.5-point favorite, leveraging their elite defensive metrics and balanced offensive production. Boise State’s potent rushing attack makes them a dangerous opponent capable of pulling off an upset or at least keeping the game close.
Penn State: Strengths and Weaknesses
- Strengths:
- Defense: Ranked 5th in total yards allowed (298.8 YPG) and 6th in points allowed (15.8 PPG), Penn State excels against both the run (100.3 YPG, 7th) and pass (179.6 YPG, 17th).
- Offensive Balance: Their combination of 201.2 rushing yards per game (19th) and 238.6 passing yards (54th) creates a well-rounded attack.
- Efficiency: With a 47.6% third-down conversion rate (T-12th), Penn State sustains drives and limits opponents’ opportunities.
- Weaknesses:
- Scoring Gap: While they average 33.9 PPG, their offense isn’t as explosive as their defensive dominance, which could make covering large spreads a challenge.
Boise State: Strengths and Weaknesses
- Strengths:
- Elite Rushing Game: The Broncos average 250.5 rushing yards per game (5th), using their ground game to dominate time of possession.
- High-Scoring Offense: At 39.1 PPG (3rd), Boise State consistently puts pressure on opposing defenses.
- Third-Down Success: Their 49.1% conversion rate (T-6th) keeps the chains moving and the offense on the field.
- Weaknesses:
- Defensive Vulnerabilities: Ranking 75th in total defense (389.1 YPG) and 110th in passing defense (246.8 YPG), Boise State could struggle against Penn State’s balanced attack.
- Quality of Competition: Boise State has yet to face a defense as disciplined and talented as Penn State’s.
Key Matchup Metrics
- Run Defense vs. Rushing Offense: Penn State’s defense (100.3 YPG, 7th) matches up directly with Boise State’s rushing attack (250.5 YPG, 5th). If Penn State can slow the Broncos on the ground, Boise State’s passing game may not be able to compensate.
- Third-Down Efficiency: Both teams excel offensively, but Penn State has the defensive edge, allowing conversions at just 33.2% (T-25th) compared to Boise’s 38.1% (T-62nd).
- Late-Game Factors: Boise State’s reliance on the run could limit big plays, while Penn State’s defensive efficiency will be critical in securing the win.
Prediction
Winner: Penn State
Final Score Prediction: Penn State 34, Boise State 21
Best Bet: Penn State (-10.5)
Analysis:
Penn State’s defense is simply too strong for Boise State’s one-dimensional rushing attack to consistently overcome. While Boise State will have moments of success on the ground, the Nittany Lions’ balanced offense and ability to exploit the Broncos’ poor pass defense will allow them to build and maintain a lead. Penn State’s efficiency on both sides of the ball makes them a strong pick to cover the 10.5-point spread.
