Quick Pick: Oregon -6.5
Oregon’s balanced offense (76.7 PPG, 94th) and strong free-throw shooting (75.2%, 57th) give them an edge against Nebraska’s defense, which has struggled in key areas. Nebraska’s biggest weakness is its three-point defense (30.0 opponent 3PA, 362nd), meaning Oregon will get plenty of perimeter looks. While Nebraska’s offense is solid (75.6 PPG, 157th), Oregon’s defense holds opponents to 70.7 PPG (142nd) and 42.5% FG (102nd). The Ducks also have a strong home-court record (8-3 SU) and should be able to control the tempo. Given Nebraska’s poor road performance (2-5 SU) and Oregon’s superior efficiency, the Ducks are in a great position to win and cover.
Game Preview: Oregon vs. Nebraska
Nebraska Cornhuskers (13-8, 11-10 ATS, 9-12 O/U, 2-5 Away, 9-2 Home)
Oregon Ducks (16-5, 9-12 ATS, 11-10 O/U, 4-2 Away, 8-3 Home)
1. Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Balanced Scoring: 75.6 PPG (157th), 45.4% FG (154th), 32.8% 3P% (239th) – Decent inside efficiency but inconsistent from deep.
- Perimeter Defense Issues: Opponents attempt 30.0 threes per game (362nd), one of the worst marks nationally.
- Rebounding Struggles: 33.7 RPG (115th), 7.9 ORPG (278th) – Could struggle against Oregon’s more physical frontcourt.
- Turnover Control: 11.9 TO per game (184th), 1.2 AST/TO ratio (181st) – Averages more assists than turnovers but not by much.
- Defensive Challenges: 71.1 PPG allowed (178th), 41.4% opponent FG (77th) – Not terrible, but not elite enough to slow Oregon down.
Oregon Ducks
- More Efficient Offense: 76.7 PPG (94th), 46.3% FG (93rd), 33.4% 3P% (166th) – Strong shooting team, slightly better from deep than Nebraska.
- Strong Free-Throw Shooting: 75.2% FT (57th), 15.7 FTM per game (53rd) – Can close out games from the line.
- Rebounding Edge: 31.4 RPG (220th), 23.6 DRPG (76th) – Not elite, but should control the boards against Nebraska.
- Forcing Mistakes: 7.0 SPG (146th), 3.5 BPG (98th) – Can disrupt Nebraska’s offense.
- Home-Court Advantage: 8-3 SU at home, proving they perform well in Eugene.
2. Key Metrics Comparison
Offense Comparison
MetricNebraskaRank NEBOregonRank OREPoints Per Game75.6157th76.794thFG%45.4%154th46.3%93rd3P%32.8%239th33.4%166thFT%74.3%91st75.2%57thRebounds33.7115th31.4220thOffensive Rebounds7.9278th7.8281st
Defense Comparison
MetricNebraskaRank NEBOregonRank OREOpponent PPG71.1178th70.7142ndOpponent FG%41.4%77th42.5%102ndOpponent 3P%33.4%193rd32.0%74thDefensive Rebounds32.8269th30.3141stSteals7.968th7.0146thBlocks3.0232nd3.598th
3. Pace & Tempo
- Oregon plays a more efficient offensive game, generating better shooting percentages and taking advantage of free-throw opportunities.
- Nebraska prefers a slightly faster pace, but Oregon’s defense is strong enough to slow them down and force inefficient possessions.
- Edge: Oregon – They should control the pace with their more disciplined play and home-court advantage.
4. Home/Away Performance
TeamRecord (SU)ATSO/UHome Record (SU)Road Record (SU)Nebraska13-811-109-129-22-5Oregon16-59-1211-108-34-2
- Nebraska is just 2-5 on the road, showing they struggle away from home.
- Oregon is 8-3 at home, proving they capitalize on their home-court advantage.
- Edge: Oregon – They have been far better in their own arena, while Nebraska has struggled on the road.
5. Matchup-Specific Factors
- Oregon’s Free-Throw Edge: They shoot 75.2% FT (57th) and get to the line frequently.
- Nebraska’s Poor Three-Point Defense: Opponents attempt 30.0 threes per game against them (362nd), which Oregon can exploit.
- Turnover Battle: Nebraska takes care of the ball relatively well, but Oregon forces enough steals (7.0 SPG, 146th) to create extra possessions.
6. Game Odds & Betting Insights
TeamSpreadTotalMoneylineNebraska+6.5 (-102)o145.5 (-115)+240Oregon-6.5 (-118)u145.5 (-105)-300
- Oregon is 8-3 SU at home, while Nebraska is just 2-5 on the road.
- Nebraska’s ATS record is slightly better (11-10 vs. Oregon’s 9-12), but their road struggles are a major concern.
- Oregon’s strong free-throw shooting and Nebraska’s defensive weaknesses make the Ducks the better bet.
7. Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner & Final Score:
Oregon 78, Nebraska 69
Spread Pick: Oregon -6.5
- Oregon’s balanced offense and defensive discipline make them the superior team.
- Nebraska’s road struggles and perimeter defense issues play right into Oregon’s strengths.
- Oregon’s ability to control tempo and free-throw shooting will help them cover the spread.
Confidence Level: Moderate
- Oregon is the better team and plays well at home, but their ATS record (9-12) makes this a medium-confidence play.
- The over (145.5) is also worth considering, given both teams’ scoring capabilities.
Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Oregon -6.5
Lean: Over 145.5
Predicted Score: Oregon 78, Nebraska 69
Oregon’s home dominance, efficient scoring, and Nebraska’s defensive weaknesses should allow them to control this game and cover the spread. Expect the Ducks to win comfortably at home.
