Game Preview: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Date: January 9, 2025
Time: 4:30 PM EST
Broadcast: ESPN
Spread: Notre Dame (-1.5)
Overview
Two powerhouse programs, Notre Dame and Penn State, face off in a high-stakes clash of elite defenses and physical rushing attacks. Both teams have been dominant throughout the season, with Penn State boasting a 13-2 record and a second-place finish in the Big Ten, while Notre Dame enters the game at 13-1 as the top Independent team in the nation. With only 1.5 points separating these squads on the spread, the game promises to be a tightly contested battle of wills.
Team Breakdown
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1, 5th)
- Strengths:
Notre Dame excels in defensive efficiency, ranking 2nd nationally in points allowed per game (13.6) and 5th in passing yards allowed (167.4). On offense, they lean on a dominant rushing attack that averages 217.5 yards per game (11th). Their ability to control the clock and wear down opponents has been a key to their success. - Weaknesses:
While their rushing game is elite, the passing attack leaves much to be desired, ranking 109th in the nation with only 189.1 yards per game. They’ve also struggled on third downs, converting just 38.7% (81st nationally).
Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2, 4th)
- Strengths:
Penn State brings a balanced approach to the game, ranking 24th in total yards per game (445.2). Defensively, they excel at stopping the run, allowing only 100.9 rushing yards per game (8th). Their efficiency on both sides of the ball is highlighted by their strong third-down conversion rate of 47% (15th) and their ability to limit opponents to just 15.7 points per game (7th). - Weaknesses:
The passing defense, while solid, is not as dominant as their run-stopping ability, allowing 187.9 yards per game (27th). Offensively, while balanced, they lack the explosive scoring ability of Notre Dame, averaging 33.7 points per game (25th).
Key Matchups
Notre Dame Rushing Attack vs. Penn State Rushing Defense
Notre Dame’s offense thrives on the ground, but they face one of their toughest challenges yet in Penn State’s defensive front. The Nittany Lions allow just 100.9 rushing yards per game (8th), and their physicality in the trenches could neutralize Notre Dame’s biggest strength. If the Fighting Irish are unable to establish the run, their passing game will need to step up—a task that could be difficult against a disciplined Penn State defense.
Penn State’s Balanced Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Stout Defense
Penn State’s offense is one of the most balanced in the nation, but Notre Dame’s defense is built to disrupt. The Irish allow only 314.9 yards per game (9th), including just 167.4 passing yards (5th). For Penn State to succeed, they’ll need to find a way to sustain drives against Notre Dame’s elite third-down defense (29.7%, 5th).
Prediction
This game will likely be a grind, with both teams leaning on their defenses to set the tone. While Notre Dame’s defense has been more consistent throughout the season, Penn State’s ability to stop the run and their balanced offensive attack give them a slight edge in this matchup.
Final Score Prediction:
Penn State 20, Notre Dame 17
Pick Against the Spread:
Penn State (+1.5)
Why Penn State Covers the Spread
- Run Defense Advantage: Penn State’s ability to stop the run could force Notre Dame into uncomfortable passing situations, limiting their offensive effectiveness.
- Balanced Offense: With the ability to move the ball effectively through the air and on the ground, Penn State has more options to attack Notre Dame’s defense.
- Third-Down Efficiency: Penn State’s superior third-down conversion rate (47%, 15th nationally) could help them sustain drives and control field position.
In a game where both defenses will shine, Penn State’s balance and ability to contain Notre Dame’s rushing attack make them the smarter pick to cover.
