Quick Pick: Bradley +1.5
Bradley’s elite shooting (48.7% FG, 25th; 39.9% 3P%, 4th) and efficient defense (39.8% opponent FG%, 30th) give them the edge in this tight MVC matchup. Northern Iowa has been strong at home (10-2 SU), but they lack interior dominance, ranking 314th in rebounding and 349th in offensive boards. Bradley’s ability to control tempo and their 5-1 SU road record suggest they’re in a great position to steal this one.
Game Preview: Northern Iowa vs. Bradley
Bradley Braves (18-4, 9-11-1 ATS, 13-8 O/U, 5-1 Away, 10-2 Home)
Northern Iowa Panthers (13-9, 13-8 ATS, 7-13-1 O/U, 3-4 Away, 10-2 Home)
1. Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
Northern Iowa Panthers
- Scoring Efficiency: 74.7 PPG (183rd), 49.9% FG (7th), 37.1% 3P% (48th) – Highly efficient but doesn’t take many shots (350th in FGA).
- Rebounding Issues: 29.7 RPG (314th), 6.5 ORPG (349th) – One of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country.
- Turnover Discipline: 10.6 TO per game (56th) – Takes care of the ball well.
- Defensive Concerns: 67.6 PPG allowed (70th), 35.0% opponent 3P% (279th) – Struggles against strong perimeter teams.
Bradley Braves
- Elite Shooting: 79.7 PPG (64th), 48.7% FG (25th), 39.9% 3P% (4th) – One of the most efficient shooting teams in the country.
- Strong Defense: 68.3 PPG allowed (90th), 39.8% opponent FG% (30th), 29.6% opponent 3P% (29th) – Locks down perimeter shooters.
- Free Throw Advantage: 78.7% FT (13th) vs. UNI’s 71.1% FT (208th) – Could be key in a close game.
- Rebounding Edge: 32.3 RPG (187th) vs. UNI’s 29.7 RPG (314th) – Not elite, but should win the battle on the boards.
2. Key Metrics Comparison
| Metric | Bradley | National Rank | Northern Iowa | National Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 79.7 | 64th | 74.7 | 183rd |
| FG% | 48.7% | 25th | 49.9% | 7th |
| 3P% | 39.9% | 4th | 37.1% | 48th |
| FT% | 78.7% | 13th | 71.1% | 208th |
| Rebounds | 32.3 | 187th | 29.7 | 314th |
| Offensive Rebounds | 7.5 | 307th | 6.5 | 349th |
Defensive Comparison
| Metric | Bradley | National Rank | Northern Iowa | National Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 68.3 | 90th | 67.6 | 70th |
| Opponent FG% | 39.8% | 30th | 44.1% | 225th |
| Opponent 3P% | 29.6% | 29th | 35.0% | 279th |
| Defensive Rebounds | 31.2 | 181st | 23.3 | 91st |
| Steals | 7.6 | 141st | 6.4 | 197th |
| Blocks | 2.0 | 116th | 3.0 | 23rd |
3. Pace & Tempo
- Bradley plays at a moderate pace, prioritizing efficient shot selection.
- Northern Iowa runs a slower tempo (350th in FGA), relying on shot efficiency over volume.
- Edge: Bradley – Their superior shooting should outlast UNI’s slower, methodical offense.
4. Home/Away Performance
| Team | Record (SU) | ATS | O/U | Home Record (SU) | Road Record (SU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley | 18-4 | 9-11-1 | 13-8 | 10-2 | 5-1 |
| Northern Iowa | 13-9 | 13-8 | 7-13-1 | 10-2 | 3-4 |
- Bradley has been dominant on the road (5-1 SU).
- Northern Iowa is strong at home (10-2 SU) but has struggled ATS at times.
- Edge: Bradley, based on road performance and matchup advantages.
5. Matchup-Specific Factors
- Perimeter Play: Bradley’s elite 3P shooting (39.9%, 4th) vs. UNI’s weak 3P defense (35.0%, 279th).
- Rebounding Edge: Neither team is elite, but Bradley has a clear advantage (32.3 RPG vs. 29.7 RPG).
- Turnover Battle: Bradley is slightly more turnover-prone, but UNI doesn’t force many mistakes.
- Free Throws: Bradley has a major FT% edge (78.7% vs. 71.1%), which could decide a close game.
6. Game Odds & Betting Insights
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley | +1.5 (-102) | o139.5 (-105) | +110 |
| Northern Iowa | -1.5 (-118) | u139.5 (-115) | -135 |
7. Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score:
Bradley 73, Northern Iowa 69
Spread Pick: Bradley +1.5
- Bradley’s superior perimeter shooting and defensive efficiency make them the better team.
- Northern Iowa’s home-court advantage is strong, but their weaknesses (rebounding, 3P defense) align too well with Bradley’s strengths.
- Bradley is 5-1 SU on the road, proving they can win away from home.
Confidence Level: Moderate-High
8. Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Bradley +1.5
Lean: Over 139.5
Predicted Score: Bradley 73, Northern Iowa 69
Bradley’s elite shooting, road dominance, and defensive advantage make them a strong bet despite playing in a tough road environment. Northern Iowa’s lack of rebounding and inability to defend the three-point line should be the difference-maker, allowing Bradley to win outright.
