Illinois’ dominance on the boards, strong defensive efficiency, and historical success against Nebraska (9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings) make them the stronger side. Nebraska’s home record (8-2) could keep it close, but Illinois has the edge in key areas like rebounding and interior scoring.
Strong Free-Throw Shooting: Nebraska converts 74.4% of FTs (#92 nationally), which is crucial in tight games.
Capable Three-Point Shooting: They hit 33.2% from beyond the arc (#217 nationally), which will be important against Illinois’ defense.
Ball Security: Nebraska’s 12.2 turnovers per game (#214 nationally) are manageable.
Offensive Weaknesses
Limited Shot Volume: Nebraska attempts only 57.2 FGA per game (#252 nationally), meaning efficiency is key.
Weak Inside Presence: Nebraska secures just 7.8 offensive rebounds per game (#284 nationally), which could be a problem against Illinois’ size.
Defensive Strengths
Three-Point Defense: Nebraska holds opponents to 34.1% from three (#228 nationally), limiting perimeter success.
Forces Turnovers: They generate 7.8 steals per game (#87 nationally), creating transition opportunities.
Defensive Weaknesses
Rebounding Struggles: Nebraska ranks #210 in total rebounds per game (33.5) and will likely get outworked inside.
Limited Rim Protection: They average just 3.2 blocks per game (#245 nationally), allowing easier scoring opportunities.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offense
Metric
Illinois (Rank)
Illinois Value
Nebraska (Rank)
Nebraska Value
Points Per Game (PPG)
6th
85.8
168th
75.3
FG%
199th
44.5%
138th
45.8%
3P%
285th
31.9%
217th
33.2%
FT%
60th
75.6%
92nd
74.4%
Rebounds
1st
42.0
129th
33.5
Defense
Metric
Illinois (Rank)
Illinois Value
Nebraska (Rank)
Nebraska Value
Opponent PPG
172nd
71.0
114th
69.5
Opponent FG%
27th
39.7%
92nd
41.7%
Opponent 3P%
13th
28.5%
228th
34.1%
Defensive Rebounds
1st
29.9
36th
22.9
Steals
112th
4.8
87th
7.8
Blocks
144th
4.3
245th
3.2
Pace & Tempo
Illinois plays at a fast pace, averaging 85.8 PPG and ranking high in shot attempts.
Nebraska prefers a slower tempo, with 75.3 PPG and fewer field goal attempts.
Advantage: Illinois – If they dictate tempo, Nebraska will struggle to keep up.
Home/Away Performance
Team
Record
ATS
O/U
Road Record
Home Record
Illinois
14-6
10-9-1
12-8-0
3-2
9-3
Nebraska
12-8
10-10
9-11
2-5
8-2
Nebraska is much stronger at home (8-2), while Illinois is 3-2 on the road.
Illinois’ dominance in this matchup (9-1 SU vs. Nebraska) is a significant factor.
Matchup-Specific Factors
Illinois’ rebounding dominance (42.0 RPG vs. Nebraska’s 33.5 RPG) is the biggest factor.
Nebraska must hit threes (33.2% 3P) to stay competitive against Illinois’ strong interior defense.
Illinois’ ability to control the paint and get to the free-throw line should be the difference.
Game Odds
Team
Spread
Total
Moneyline
Illinois
-3.5 (-110)
o153.5 (-110)
-175
Nebraska
+3.5 (-110)
u153.5 (-110)
+145
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score: Illinois 78, Nebraska 72
Spread Pick: Illinois -3.5 – Rebounding edge and tempo advantage should push them to cover.
Confidence Level: Moderate
O/U Lean: Over 153.5 – Illinois’ tempo and offensive rebounding should lead to extra points.
Trend to Consider: Illinois is 9-1 SU against Nebraska in their last 10 meetings.
Final Conclusion
Best Bet: Illinois -3.5 Illinois’ rebounding dominance, defensive efficiency, and fast-paced style make them the stronger pick. Nebraska’s home-court advantage (8-2) could keep it close, but Illinois’ control of the paint should be the deciding factor.
