Cincinnati vs. Dayton
Spread: Cincinnati -3
Matchup Analysis
- Rebounding Advantage:
Cincinnati holds a strong rebounding edge with 38.3 RPG (90th) compared to Dayton’s 35.3 RPG (241st). The Bearcats also dominate defensive rebounding, limiting second-chance opportunities for opponents. - Free-Throw Efficiency:
Dayton is average at 70.3% (207th), while Cincinnati is abysmal at 62.1% (355th). This could impact late-game execution in a close spread. - Three-Point Shooting and Defense:
Cincinnati shoots efficiently from deep at 37.9% (49th) and limits opponents to 28.5%. Dayton is solid at 36.4% (87th) but less effective defensively, allowing 32.1%. - Tempo and Scoring Efficiency:
Cincinnati’s pace and 80.4 PPG align well with its efficient shooting (50.3%, 17th). Dayton is slower-paced but efficient at 49.5% (31st) FG%.
Prediction
Cincinnati 78, Dayton 71
Best Bet: Cincinnati -3
Providence vs. St. John’s
Spread: St. John’s -6
Matchup Analysis
- Rebounding Advantage:
St. John’s dominates on the glass with 42.3 RPG (13th), compared to Providence’s 39.8 RPG (45th). Offensive rebounding is a key strength for St. John’s, which should generate extra possessions. - Free-Throw Efficiency:
Neither team excels, with St. John’s at 70% (213th) and Providence at 67.8% (281st). - Three-Point Shooting and Defense:
St. John’s struggles from deep (32.8%, 225th), but Providence isn’t much better at 33.6% (193rd). However, Providence limits opponents to 30.4%, a potential edge. - Tempo and Scoring Efficiency:
St. John’s plays at a much faster pace, scoring 84.8 PPG (28th), while Providence averages a more modest 70.5 PPG (292nd).
Prediction
St. John’s 82, Providence 73
Best Bet: St. John’s -6
Yale vs. Akron
Spread: Yale -4.5
Matchup Analysis
- Rebounding Advantage:
Akron edges out Yale with 40 RPG (40th) vs. 38.4 RPG (89th). Both teams are strong on offensive rebounds, but Akron’s size may pose challenges. - Free-Throw Efficiency:
Both teams are respectable, with Yale at 72.6% (144th) and Akron at 72.7% (141st). - Three-Point Shooting and Defense:
Akron thrives from deep, shooting 36.8% (77th) and making 12.1 threes per game. Yale is strong at 38.5% (32nd), but their perimeter defense allows 8.5 threes per game. - Tempo and Scoring Efficiency:
Akron has a slight scoring edge with 85.2 PPG (23rd) vs. Yale’s 82.1 PPG (53rd).
Prediction
Akron 77, Yale 75
Best Bet: Akron +4.5
Siena vs. Holy Cross
Spread: Siena -5
Matchup Analysis
- Rebounding Advantage:
Both teams are weak on the boards, with Siena at 31.9 RPG (336th) and Holy Cross at 30.8 RPG (350th). - Free-Throw Efficiency:
Holy Cross has a slight edge, shooting 75.2% (68th) vs. Siena’s 71% (191st). - Three-Point Shooting and Defense:
Holy Cross is more dangerous from deep at 37.8% (51st), while Siena struggles at 33.7% (184th). Siena’s perimeter defense is shaky, allowing opponents to shoot 35.5%. - Tempo and Scoring Efficiency:
Neither team scores efficiently, but Holy Cross holds a slight shooting edge at 44.6% FG% vs. Siena’s 40.9%.
Prediction
Holy Cross 68, Siena 65
Best Bet: Holy Cross +5
Seattle vs. UIC
Spread: Seattle -6
Matchup Analysis
- Rebounding Advantage:
UIC has a major rebounding edge with 41.4 RPG (24th) compared to Seattle’s 35.5 RPG (227th). - Free-Throw Efficiency:
Seattle shoots 73.7% (112th), slightly better than UIC’s 71.4% (181st). - Three-Point Shooting and Defense:
Seattle is strong at 37.1% (67th) from deep, but UIC has a balanced attack and a solid defense, limiting opponents to 34.4%. - Tempo and Scoring Efficiency:
UIC scores more efficiently with 80.7 PPG (77th) compared to Seattle’s 76 PPG (183rd).
Prediction
UIC 78, Seattle 74
Best Bet: UIC +6
North Texas vs. App State
Spread: North Texas -11.5
Matchup Analysis
- Rebounding Advantage:
App State has a clear edge with 40 RPG (40th) vs. North Texas’ 33.1 RPG (312th). - Free-Throw Efficiency:
North Texas has a major edge at 74.4% (91st), while App State struggles at 62.3% (354th). - Three-Point Shooting and Defense:
North Texas defends the perimeter well (31.5% allowed), while App State shoots poorly at 34% (172nd). - Tempo and Scoring Efficiency:
North Texas slows games down and thrives defensively, allowing just 56.8 PPG (4th).
Prediction
North Texas 68, App State 55
Best Bet: North Texas -11.5
Loyola Marymount vs. Southern University
Spread: Loyola Marymount -8
Matchup Analysis
- Rebounding Advantage:
Southern has a significant edge at 38.3 RPG (93rd) vs. Loyola’s 35.4 RPG (236th). - Free-Throw Efficiency:
Both teams are average, with Loyola at 71.4% (175th) and Southern at 69.5% (239th). - Three-Point Shooting and Defense:
Southern shoots slightly better from three (34.4%) compared to Loyola (31.7%). However, Loyola defends the perimeter more effectively. - Tempo and Scoring Efficiency:
Southern’s pace and scoring (82.5 PPG, 51st) should create challenges for Loyola.
Prediction
Southern 77, Loyola Marymount 75
Best Bet: Southern +8
Summary of Best Bets:
- Cincinnati -3
- St. John’s -6
- Akron +4.5
- Holy Cross +5
- UIC +6
- North Texas -11.5
- Southern +8
