Quick Pick: Mississippi State -6.5
Mississippi State has dominated this matchup, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. Missouri. Their physicality, rebounding edge (36.0 RPG, 32nd), and home-court advantage (8-2 SU at home) give them a strong edge against a Missouri team that has struggled on the road (1-3 SU). Missouri’s strength lies in their perimeter shooting (37.3% 3P%, 43rd), but Mississippi State’s size and tempo control have consistently disrupted the Tigers. Expect Mississippi State to win the battle inside, control the pace, and cover the spread.
Game Preview: Mississippi State vs. Missouri
Missouri Tigers (16-4, 11-9 ATS, 10-10 O/U, 1-3 Away, 15-0 Home)
Mississippi State Bulldogs (16-5, 9-12 ATS, 11-10 O/U, 4-2 Away, 8-2 Home)
1. Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
Missouri Tigers
- Shooting Efficiency: 48.2% FG (38th), 37.3% 3P% (43rd), 71.9% FT (183rd) – Great shooting, but relies on the perimeter.
- Rebounding Struggles: 32.0 RPG (209th), 9.4 ORPG (155th) – A major concern against Mississippi State.
- Ball Movement: 13.7 APG (196th) – Below average in assists.
- Turnovers: 11.1 TO per game (96th) – Decent ball security.
- Defensive Strengths: Opponents shoot 42.1% FG (106th), 33.6% 3P% (209th) – Solid but not elite.
- Defensive Pressure: 10.1 SPG (134th) – Can force turnovers but struggles inside.
- Interior Defense: 3.0 BPG (220th) – Poor rim protection.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Shooting Efficiency: 46.0% FG (122nd), 32.1% 3P% (278th), 69.6% FT (258th) – Struggles from deep but dominates inside.
- Rebounding Dominance: 36.0 RPG (32nd), 11.9 ORPG (24th) – A key factor in this matchup.
- Ball Movement: 15.9 APG (65th) – Creates high-percentage looks.
- Turnovers: 10.4 TO per game (41st) – Disciplined with the ball.
- Defensive Strengths: Opponents shoot 42.4% FG (118th), 35.2% 3P% (292nd) – Weak perimeter defense but strong in the paint.
- Defensive Pressure: 9.7 SPG (86th) – Can force mistakes.
- Interior Defense: 4.5 BPG (214th) – Not elite but better than Missouri’s.
2. Key Metrics Comparison
| Metric | Missouri | National Rank | Mississippi State | National Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 83.2 | 23rd | 80.8 | 44th |
| FG% | 48.2% | 38th | 46.0% | 122nd |
| 3P% | 37.3% | 43rd | 32.1% | 278th |
| FT% | 71.9% | 183rd | 69.6% | 258th |
| Rebounds | 32.0 | 209th | 36.0 | 32nd |
| Offensive Rebounds | 9.4 | 155th | 11.9 | 24th |
Defensive Comparison
| Metric | Missouri | National Rank | Mississippi State | National Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 69.0 | 100th | 70.4 | 144th |
| Opponent FG% | 42.1% | 106th | 42.4% | 118th |
| Opponent 3P% | 33.6% | 209th | 35.2% | 292nd |
| Defensive Rebounds | 29.6 | 99th | 32.3 | 246th |
| Steals | 10.1 | 134th | 9.7 | 86th |
| Blocks | 3.0 | 220th | 4.5 | 214th |
3. Pace & Tempo
- Missouri likes to play fast, thriving on transition offense and perimeter shooting.
- Mississippi State controls tempo, slowing the game down and winning the rebounding battle.
- Edge: Mississippi State – They can dictate pace with rebounding and physicality.
4. Home/Away Performance
| Team | Record (SU) | ATS | O/U | Home Record (SU) | Road Record (SU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 16-5 | 9-12 | 11-10 | 8-2 | 4-2 |
| Missouri | 16-4 | 11-9 | 10-10 | 15-0 | 1-3 |
- Mississippi State plays well at home (8-2 SU).
- Missouri is just 1-3 SU on the road and struggles against physical teams.
- Edge: Mississippi State, especially given their 9-1 ATS record vs. Missouri.
5. Matchup-Specific Factors
- Perimeter Play: Missouri’s 37.3% 3P% (43rd) vs. Mississippi State’s 35.2% opponent 3P% (292nd) – Advantage Missouri.
- Rebounding Edge: Mississippi State’s 36.0 RPG (32nd) vs. Missouri’s 32.0 RPG (209th) – Major advantage Mississippi State.
- Turnover Battle: Missouri’s 10.1 SPG (134th) vs. Mississippi State’s 10.4 TO per game (41st) – Even.
- Free Throws: Neither team is great, but Mississippi State struggles more (69.6% FT, 258th).
6. Game Odds & Betting Insights
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | +6.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-105) | +225 |
| Mississippi State | -6.5 (-110) | u149.5 (-115) | -285 |
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score:
Mississippi State 78, Missouri 70
Spread Pick: Mississippi State -6.5
- Mississippi State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. Missouri.
- Missouri struggles on the road, while Mississippi State is strong at home.
- Mississippi State’s rebounding and physicality should give them full control of this game.
Confidence Level: High
Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Mississippi State -6.5
Lean: Under 149.5
Predicted Score: Mississippi State 78, Missouri 70
Mississippi State’s ATS dominance, rebounding, and ability to control the pace make them the best bet to cover at home. Missouri’s perimeter shooting could keep them competitive, but the Bulldogs’ physicality will wear them down.
