(5) Notre Dame vs. (8) Indiana
Time: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -7.5
Total Points (O/U): 51.5
Offensive Overview
Indiana and Notre Dame both bring dynamic offenses to this CFP matchup. Indiana, the 8-seed, ranks 2nd nationally in scoring offense (43.3 points per game), featuring a balanced attack of 265.2 passing YPG (28th) and 173.6 rushing YPG (T-51st). On the other hand, Notre Dame, the 5-seed, relies on its ground game, averaging 224.8 rushing YPG (10th nationally) to power an offense scoring 39.8 PPG (3rd). While Indiana excels in balance, Notre Dame’s passing game struggles, ranking just 101st nationally at 196.4 YPG. For bettors, watch how Indiana’s balance and Notre Dame’s rushing tempo clash in this primetime showdown.
Defensive Overview
Defensively, Indiana holds a statistical edge. The Hoosiers are 2nd nationally in total defense, allowing just 265.4 YPG. Their rushing defense tops the nation at 70.8 YPG, backed by a strong 2.46 yards per carry allowed. Meanwhile, Notre Dame ranks 11th in total defense (314.8 YPG), but their 138.8 rushing YPG allowed (51st) raises questions against a balanced offense like Indiana’s. Indiana’s defense excels at forcing teams into tough situations, making this matchup critical for Notre Dame’s rushing game to thrive.
Key Matchup
Notre Dame’s Rushing Attack vs. Indiana’s Rush Defense
Notre Dame’s success depends on their ability to break through Indiana’s top-ranked run defense. Averaging 224.8 rushing YPG, the Fighting Irish will face a defensive unit that has shut down most opponents. However, Indiana’s elite rushing stats are partially influenced by blowout game scripts. This game will reveal whether Indiana’s defense is truly dominant or if Notre Dame’s ground game can take control.
Strength of Schedule Comparison
Notre Dame enters with a slightly tougher schedule on paper, having faced opponents like Texas A&M and USC. However, underwhelming seasons from teams like Florida State have diminished their strength of schedule. Indiana’s schedule featured Big Ten powerhouses like Ohio State and Michigan, proving they’ve faced tough competition as well. Both teams have battled quality opponents, but neither holds a distinct edge in terms of preparation.
Prediction
This game will be a battle of strengths: Notre Dame’s ground game against Indiana’s elite rush defense. If Indiana can force Notre Dame to pass, the Hoosiers will have a clear edge. However, Notre Dame’s talent and rushing efficiency make this a close contest.
Pick: Indiana +7.5
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Indiana 24
