Citadel @ Central Arkansas
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Central Arkansas -3.5
The Citadel Bulldogs travel to Conway, Arkansas, to face the Central Arkansas Bears in a matchup that could go down to the wire. Both teams are looking to gain momentum early in the season, but their statistical profiles suggest very different strengths and weaknesses. Let’s dive into the matchup.
Team Breakdown
Central Arkansas Bears (4-6)
The Bears have struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom of Division I in field goal percentage (38.5%, 355th) and three-point shooting (27.5%, 350th). They rely on getting to the free-throw line, where they shoot a respectable 71.5% (168th). However, their defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially in protecting the rim, as they average only 1.6 blocks per game (353rd).
One bright spot is their rebounding effort (37 RPG, 151st), which has helped them stay competitive in games. Playing at home, Central Arkansas will look to leverage their physicality and limit second-chance opportunities for Citadel.
Citadel Bulldogs (6-4)
The Bulldogs bring a more potent offense, scoring 76.11 points per game (184th) while shooting a solid 46.0% from the field (149th). However, their Achilles’ heel is free-throw shooting, as they rank dead last in Division I (60.1%). This inefficiency could hurt them in a close game.
On the glass, Citadel has a significant edge, pulling down 40.56 rebounds per game (36th). Their ability to control possessions could frustrate a Central Arkansas team that relies on hustle and effort to stay competitive. The Bulldogs also have a slight edge in assists per game (14.56 to Central Arkansas’s 14.10), indicating more fluid ball movement.
Key Factors to Watch
- Rebounding Advantage:
Citadel’s top-tier rebounding (36th in the country) could be the deciding factor. If they control missed shots, they’ll limit Central Arkansas’s second-chance points and create fast-break opportunities. - Three-Point Struggles:
Both teams rank near the bottom in three-point shooting, with Citadel at 28.0% and Central Arkansas at 27.5%. Whichever team can find a hot hand from deep could gain a critical edge. - Free-Throw Efficiency:
Central Arkansas has a notable advantage at the charity stripe (71.5% vs. 60.1%). In a game projected to be close, this could be the deciding factor late.
Prediction
Central Arkansas enters as a 3.5-point favorite at home, but the numbers suggest this game will be closer than the spread indicates. Citadel’s superior shooting, rebounding, and overall offensive efficiency should keep them competitive throughout. While Central Arkansas’s free-throw shooting and home-court advantage are notable, their inability to score efficiently from the field raises concerns.
Prediction: Citadel +3.5
Look for Citadel to cover the spread, and they could even pull off the upset if they continue to dominate possession and capitalize on Central Arkansas’s shooting struggles.
Grand Canyon @ Louisiana Tech
Time: 7:30 PM
Spread: Grand Canyon -2.5
The Grand Canyon Antelopes hit the road to take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in what promises to be a competitive matchup. Both teams bring strong records and contrasting styles to the court, setting the stage for an exciting game. Here’s a breakdown of how these teams stack up and what to watch for.
Team Breakdown
Grand Canyon Antelopes (6-3)
The Antelopes have been solid offensively, averaging 80.22 points per game (86th in the nation). Their scoring is supported by decent free-throw shooting at 74.3% (95th) and effective ball movement with 14.78 assists per game (140th). However, their three-point shooting has been inconsistent, connecting on just 32.0% from beyond the arc (259th).
Rebounding has been an area of concern, as Grand Canyon ranks 286th nationally with only 34 rebounds per game. While they’re a capable defensive team, they could struggle against the physicality of Louisiana Tech. Their 3.89 blocked shots per game (119th) highlight their ability to protect the rim, but they’ll need to step up on the glass to compete.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-2)
The Bulldogs come into this game with an impressive 9-2 record and an undefeated mark at home. They’re a highly efficient offensive team, ranking 20th in field goal percentage (50.1%) and 55th in three-point shooting (37.6%). Louisiana Tech also moves the ball exceptionally well, averaging 16.82 assists per game (46th).
Defensively, they’re one of the best shot-blocking teams in the country, averaging 5.55 blocks per game (13th). They hold a slight edge in rebounding over Grand Canyon, grabbing 36.36 boards per game (190th). Louisiana Tech’s ability to control possessions and create second-chance opportunities could be a deciding factor.
Key Factors to Watch
- Offensive Efficiency:
Grand Canyon can score in bunches, but Louisiana Tech’s superior shooting efficiency (50.1% vs. 45.0%) gives the Bulldogs a clear edge. If the Bulldogs maintain their hot shooting, they could take control of the game early. - Battle in the Paint:
Louisiana Tech’s 5.55 blocks per game and slight rebounding advantage could make things difficult for Grand Canyon’s interior players. The Antelopes will need to find ways to create high-percentage looks and limit turnovers. - Three-Point Shooting:
Louisiana Tech has the advantage from beyond the arc, shooting 37.6% compared to Grand Canyon’s 32.0%. If Louisiana Tech gets going from deep, it could stretch the Antelopes’ defense and open up driving lanes. - Home-Court Advantage:
Louisiana Tech has been dominant at home, going 5-0 so far. Playing in a familiar environment could give the Bulldogs the confidence they need to execute in a close game.
Prediction
This matchup pits Grand Canyon’s high-scoring offense against Louisiana Tech’s efficient, well-rounded team. The Bulldogs’ ability to shoot efficiently, control the glass, and protect the paint gives them an edge in key areas. Grand Canyon may keep it close with their offensive firepower, but their struggles in rebounding and inconsistent perimeter shooting are concerning.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech +2.5
Expect Louisiana Tech to cover the spread and potentially win outright behind their efficient offense, home-court dominance, and defensive prowess. Grand Canyon will need a near-perfect game to come away with a victory here.
California Baptist @ Middle Tennessee
Time: 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Middle Tennessee -4.5
The California Baptist Lancers travel east to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in an intriguing non-conference matchup. Both teams come into the game with respectable records but rely on very different strengths. Let’s break down the game and determine which team is likely to cover the spread.
Team Breakdown
California Baptist Lancers (5-5)
The Lancers have had an up-and-down season and are still searching for their first road win. They average 77.40 points per game (146th) but struggle with shooting efficiency, ranking 225th in field goal percentage (44.0%) and 285th in three-point shooting (31.3%).
A bright spot for California Baptist is their free-throw shooting, where they rank 24th nationally at 78.2%. This could be crucial in keeping the game close if it comes down to late-game foul situations. However, their rebounding (35.50 per game, 237th) and assist numbers (12.30 per game, 294th) highlight their challenges in controlling the tempo and creating easy scoring opportunities.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-3)
Middle Tennessee has been dominant at home and boasts a high-powered offense, scoring 82.80 points per game (49th). Their shooting efficiency is solid, ranking 76th in field goal percentage (47.8%), but their three-point shooting (31.5%, 275th) remains a work in progress.
The Blue Raiders are excellent on the boards, grabbing 40.20 rebounds per game (41st), which gives them a distinct edge over the Lancers in controlling possessions. Their 4.40 blocked shots per game (68th) also underline their strong defensive presence, especially in the paint. While their free-throw percentage (69.9%, 219th) isn’t great, their ability to score efficiently in transition and off second-chance opportunities should give them an advantage.
Key Factors to Watch
- Rebounding Edge:
Middle Tennessee’s superior rebounding (40.20 vs. 35.50) could be a deciding factor. If the Blue Raiders control the glass, they’ll limit California Baptist’s chances to capitalize on second opportunities and fast breaks. - Free-Throw Advantage:
California Baptist is one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the country, converting 78.2% of their attempts. If the game remains close late, this efficiency could help them stay within the spread or even pull off the upset. - Home-Court Dominance:
Middle Tennessee is 4-0 at home this season and plays much more confidently in their arena. Their balanced offense and defensive intensity have been difficult for opponents to handle on their turf. - Shooting Consistency:
While Middle Tennessee has the edge in shooting efficiency, California Baptist’s defensive effort could slow down the Blue Raiders’ pace. Whichever team can get hot from beyond the arc might swing the game in their favor.
Prediction
This game is shaping up to be competitive, but Middle Tennessee’s dominance at home and their edge in rebounding and defense give them a clear advantage. While California Baptist’s free-throw shooting is a strength, their struggles on the road and inconsistency in creating offense make it hard to back them here.
Prediction: Middle Tennessee -4.5
Expect the Blue Raiders to cover the spread, using their rebounding and transition play to control the game and pull away late. California Baptist will keep it close early, but Middle Tennessee’s home-court advantage and scoring efficiency should secure the win.
South Alabama @ TCU
Time: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: TCU -11.5
The South Alabama Jaguars head to Fort Worth to face the TCU Horned Frogs in what looks to be a challenging road test. While both teams have struggled with offensive efficiency this season, TCU comes in as a double-digit favorite, largely due to their superior athleticism and home-court advantage. Let’s break down the matchup and evaluate which team is most likely to cover the spread.
Team Breakdown
South Alabama Jaguars (5-5)
The Jaguars have been inconsistent, particularly in road games, where they remain winless this season. They average 74.20 points per game (219th) on 44.6% shooting (204th). Their three-point shooting (33.3%, 202nd) and free-throw percentage (70.0%, 216th) are middle-of-the-road, but their ball movement has been a bright spot, as they rank 92nd in assists per game (15.60).
Rebounding has been a weakness, as they pull down just 34.60 boards per game (265th), making it difficult to control possessions. Their defense, with 2.90 blocked shots per game (236th), has struggled against athletic teams, which could pose a problem against TCU’s physicality.
TCU Horned Frogs (7-3)
The Horned Frogs enter this matchup as heavy favorites, but their offensive struggles can’t be overlooked. They average just 73.00 points per game (242nd) on 44.1% shooting (222nd). TCU’s three-point shooting is slightly better than South Alabama’s at 34.5% (145th), but their dismal free-throw percentage of 60.1% (360th) is a glaring weakness.
On the boards, TCU holds a slight edge with 35.22 rebounds per game (248th) and complements that with solid rim protection, averaging 4.00 blocked shots per game (88th). Their defensive prowess and athleticism give them an advantage, especially against South Alabama’s subpar rebounding.
Key Factors to Watch
- Rebounding Battle:
Both teams rank poorly in rebounding, but TCU’s slight edge (35.22 to 34.60) could be enough to control possessions and limit South Alabama’s second-chance opportunities. - Free-Throw Shooting:
TCU’s inability to capitalize at the charity stripe (60.1%) could leave the door open for South Alabama to stay in the game, especially if the Jaguars shoot well from the line (70.0%). - Defensive Edge:
TCU’s shot-blocking ability (4.00 per game, 88th) could disrupt South Alabama’s offense in the paint. The Jaguars will need to rely on perimeter shooting to generate points. - Road Struggles:
South Alabama is winless on the road this season (0-3), and their inability to perform away from home gives TCU a clear advantage in this matchup.
Prediction
South Alabama’s offensive potential and solid ball movement suggest they can compete for stretches, but their inability to rebound and defend the paint will likely allow TCU to control the game. While TCU’s poor free-throw shooting is concerning, their home-court dominance and defensive intensity make them the safer pick.
Prediction: TCU -11.5
Expect TCU to cover the spread as their athleticism and defense overwhelm South Alabama in the second half. The Jaguars’ road woes and rebounding struggles will be too much to overcome against the Horned Frogs.
Oral Roberts @ Texas Tech
Time: 8:00 PM
Spread: Texas Tech -27.5
The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles travel to Lubbock, Texas, to face the red-hot Texas Tech Red Raiders in a lopsided matchup on paper. With a massive 27.5-point spread, this game will test whether Oral Roberts can compete with the offensive firepower and efficiency of Texas Tech or if the Red Raiders will dominate as expected. Let’s analyze the matchup.
Team Breakdown
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (3-7)
Oral Roberts has struggled this season, particularly on the road, where they remain winless (0-5). Their offense averages a modest 74.60 points per game (211th) and struggles with efficiency, ranking 270th in field goal percentage (43.1%). However, their three-point shooting (36.3%, 89th) and free-throw percentage (77.2%, 35th) are bright spots, giving them a chance to stay competitive if they get hot from outside.
Defensively, the Golden Eagles are a liability, particularly in rim protection, as they average just 1.50 blocks per game (356th, near the bottom of Division I). They also rank poorly in rebounding, pulling down only 33.60 boards per game (299th), which could be disastrous against a physical Texas Tech squad.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-2)
Texas Tech enters this matchup with an explosive offense, averaging 84.67 points per game (28th). Their shooting efficiency is elite, ranking 5th in field goal percentage (51.0%) and 11th in three-point shooting (40.6%). They are also highly effective from the free-throw line, shooting 79.7% (15th), making them a complete offensive team.
The Red Raiders dominate on the boards with 37.11 rebounds per game (142nd) and move the ball well, ranking 31st in assists per game (17.33). While their shot-blocking (3.00 per game, 193rd) isn’t elite, their overall defensive intensity and size often overwhelm smaller or less athletic teams like Oral Roberts.
Key Factors to Watch
- Offensive Efficiency:
Texas Tech’s shooting efficiency, both inside and beyond the arc, is a massive advantage over Oral Roberts. If the Red Raiders start strong offensively, they could put the game out of reach early. - Rebounding Advantage:
Texas Tech’s rebounding edge (37.11 vs. 33.60) should allow them to dominate second-chance opportunities and control the tempo of the game. Oral Roberts will need a team effort to compete on the glass. - Three-Point Shooting:
While Texas Tech’s three-point shooting (40.6%) is excellent, Oral Roberts (36.3%) also poses a threat from deep. The Golden Eagles will need to hit consistently from beyond the arc to avoid falling too far behind. - Depth and Home-Court Advantage:
Texas Tech is undefeated at home (6-0) and has a deep rotation capable of wearing down an Oral Roberts team that lacks depth and size.
Prediction
This matchup heavily favors Texas Tech in every aspect, from efficiency to rebounding to defensive intensity. Oral Roberts’ only hope to stay within the spread is to catch fire from three and hope Texas Tech has an off-night. However, the Red Raiders’ balance and dominance on both ends of the floor make that unlikely.
Prediction: Texas Tech -27.5
Expect Texas Tech to cover the spread. Their offensive efficiency, rebounding dominance, and home-court advantage should lead to a blowout win over an outmatched Oral Roberts team.
Montana @ Northern Iowa
Spread: UNI -11
Time: 8:00 PM EST
The Montana Grizzlies, leaders of the Big Sky Conference, travel to Cedar Falls to face the UNI Panthers, who sit atop the Missouri Valley Conference. This matchup pits two first-place teams against each other, with UNI coming in as the 11-point favorite. Let’s break down the game and predict which team is most likely to cover the spread.
Team Breakdown
Montana Grizzlies (7-4)
Montana enters this game with a solid 7-4 record and has shown the ability to score efficiently, averaging 77.27 points per game (149th). They shoot 47.5% from the field (83rd), but their three-point shooting (31.3%, 287th) is well below average, limiting their perimeter scoring threats.
The Grizzlies are solid on the boards, averaging 35.91 rebounds per game (218th), which gives them an edge over UNI’s 33.20 rebounds (312th). Their rim protection is also strong, with 4.00 blocks per game (88th). If they can take advantage of their defensive presence and control the tempo, Montana has a chance to compete. However, free-throw shooting remains a concern at just 70.0% (212th), which could prove costly in a close game.
Northern Iowa Panthers (6-4)
The Panthers boast one of the most efficient offenses in the country, shooting 51.6% from the field (3rd) and 40.3% from beyond the arc (15th). This elite shooting has been the foundation of their success, allowing them to average 76.40 points per game (176th) despite below-average rebounding (33.20 per game, 312th).
Their ball movement is another strength, as they rank 105th in assists per game (15.40). UNI’s ability to create open looks and convert at a high rate could overwhelm Montana’s defense. However, their weakness on the glass and relatively average free-throw percentage (71.5%, 170th) could leave the door open for the Grizzlies if the game is closer than expected.
Key Factors to Watch
- Shooting Efficiency:
UNI’s shooting percentages—51.6% from the field and 40.3% from three—are among the best in the country. Montana’s defense will need to disrupt their rhythm to have a chance. - Rebounding Battle:
Montana has a slight edge in rebounding (35.91 vs. 33.20), which could help them generate second-chance points and limit UNI’s scoring opportunities. - Pace of Play:
UNI thrives when they can move the ball quickly and create open looks. Montana must slow the game down and force the Panthers into contested shots. - Perimeter Scoring:
UNI’s three-point shooting (40.3%) is a major strength, while Montana struggles from beyond the arc (31.3%). The disparity in perimeter scoring could be a decisive factor.
Prediction
UNI’s elite shooting efficiency and ability to generate assists make them the clear favorite in this matchup. While Montana’s rebounding edge and shot-blocking could help them stay competitive early, the Grizzlies’ lack of perimeter scoring and inconsistent free-throw shooting will make it tough to keep up with UNI over 40 minutes.
Prediction: UNI -11
Expect the Panthers to cover the spread as their offensive firepower proves too much for Montana to handle. UNI’s home-court advantage and efficient scoring will allow them to pull away in the second half.
Air Force @ Northern Colorado
Time: 8:00 PM
Spread: Northern Colorado -9.5
The Air Force Falcons travel to Greeley, Colorado, to take on the Northern Colorado Bears in a clash of two teams with contrasting styles. Northern Colorado enters the game as a 9.5-point favorite, and based on the stats, they boast significant advantages in scoring and rebounding. Air Force, however, brings some defensive strengths that could help them keep this game competitive. Let’s break down the matchup.
Team Breakdown
Air Force Falcons (3-7)
The Falcons have struggled this season, especially on the offensive end, ranking 339th in the nation in points per game (65.30). While they shoot a respectable 46.5% from the field (127th) and an impressive 37.0% from three-point range (73rd), their free-throw shooting has been abysmal at 63.7% (342nd).
Rebounding is another glaring weakness, as Air Force ranks near the bottom of Division I, averaging just 30.90 rebounds per game (350th). However, their ball movement has been solid, with 15.60 assists per game (92nd), and they protect the paint decently with 3.60 blocks per game (144th). To compete with Northern Colorado, Air Force will need to slow the game down and lean on their perimeter shooting.
Northern Colorado Bears (6-5)
Northern Colorado has been a high-scoring team, averaging 83.36 points per game (43rd) while shooting an efficient 48.9% from the field (41st). They also hit 34.4% of their three-pointers (152nd) and 72.5% of their free throws (152nd), making them a balanced offensive threat.
On the boards, the Bears hold a significant edge over Air Force, pulling down 36.64 rebounds per game (177th). Their ball movement is excellent, ranking 42nd in assists per game (16.91). However, their defense leaves room for improvement, especially in rim protection, where they average only 2.55 blocks per game (256th).
Northern Colorado’s ability to control the pace and dominate on the glass gives them a clear advantage in this matchup.
Key Factors to Watch
- Scoring Pace:
Northern Colorado’s up-tempo style and high-scoring offense could overwhelm Air Force’s slower-paced, methodical approach. If Air Force can slow the game down, they might keep it closer than expected. - Rebounding Edge:
Northern Colorado’s rebounding advantage (36.64 vs. 30.90) could be decisive. The Bears are likely to control the glass, limiting Air Force’s possessions and generating second-chance points. - Free-Throw Shooting:
Air Force’s poor free-throw percentage (63.7%) could hurt them in a game where every possession matters. Northern Colorado’s superior accuracy at the line (72.5%) may help them pull away late. - Three-Point Shooting:
Both teams are capable from beyond the arc, but Air Force actually has the edge in percentage (37.0% vs. 34.4%). If the Falcons can get hot from deep, they could keep the game within reach.
Prediction
Northern Colorado’s offensive firepower, rebounding edge, and home-court advantage make them the clear favorite in this matchup. Air Force’s lack of size and scoring consistency on the road will likely be exposed over the course of the game. While the Falcons’ perimeter shooting could keep them competitive for stretches, they don’t have enough offensive or rebounding strength to match the Bears for 40 minutes.
Prediction: Northern Colorado -9.5
Expect Northern Colorado to cover the spread, using their superior scoring and rebounding to secure a double-digit victory at home. Air Force’s road struggles and lack of physicality on the boards will make it difficult for them to keep up.
Spread Best Bets
- Citadel +3.5
- Louisiana Tech +2.5
- Middle Tennessee -4.5
- TCU -11.5
- Texas Tech -27.5
- UNI -11
- Northern Colorado -9.5
