Quick Pick: Arizona +2.5 (-110)
Arizona has a strong edge in rebounding (37.0 RPG, 16th) and free-throw shooting (76.4%, 36th), two key factors in close games. BYU is an elite three-point shooting team (37.5% 3P, 39th), but Arizona’s perimeter defense (32.4% opponent 3P, 133rd) should be enough to limit their efficiency. While BYU boasts an impressive 11-1 home record, Arizona has proven they can win on the road (4-2 SU). With a more balanced attack and superior defense, the Wildcats are the stronger side in this matchup, and the additional half-point provides extra value on the spread.
Game Preview: BYU vs. Arizona
Arizona Wildcats (15-6, 12-9 ATS, 12-9 O/U, 4-2 Away, 10-1 Home)
BYU Cougars (15-6, 11-9-1 ATS, 10-10-1 O/U, 2-4 Away, 11-1 Home)
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | +2.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-110) | +120 |
| BYU | -2.5 (-110) | u152.5 (-110) | -140 |
Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
Arizona
- Scoring Efficiency: 82.8 PPG (24th), 47.4% FG (59th), 32.6% 3P (258th) – Strong inside but weak from deep.
- Rebounding Advantage: 37.0 RPG (16th), 11.0 ORPG (49th) – Big edge on the boards.
- Ball Movement: 17.0 APG (26th) – Creates high-quality shots.
- Defensive Strengths: Allows 40.1% FG (33rd), 32.4% opponent 3P (133rd) – Solid defensive metrics.
- Weakness: Inconsistent three-point shooting, reliance on interior scoring.
BYU
- Elite Perimeter Scoring: 81.0 PPG (41st), 48.5% FG (33rd), 37.5% 3P (39th) – High-volume and efficient from deep.
- Rebounding Concerns: 34.4 RPG (78th), 6.7 ORPG (200th) – Below average inside presence.
- Ball Movement: 17.2 APG (19th) – Similar to Arizona in offensive fluidity.
- Defensive Strengths: Opponent FG% at 41.8% (93rd), but weak against threes (34.5% opponent 3P, 249th).
- Weakness: Free-throw shooting (68.9%, 278th) could be costly in a close game.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offensive Comparison
| Metric | Arizona | Rank | BYU | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 82.8 | 24th | 81.0 | 41st |
| FG% | 47.4% | 59th | 48.5% | 33rd |
| 3P% | 32.6% | 258th | 37.5% | 39th |
| FT% | 76.4% | 36th | 68.9% | 278th |
| Total Rebounds | 37.0 | 16th | 34.4 | 78th |
| Offensive Rebounds | 11.0 | 49th | 9.9 | 115th |
Defensive Comparison
| Metric | Arizona | Rank | BYU | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 69.3 | 114th | 67.7 | 69th |
| Opponent FG% | 40.1% | 33rd | 41.8% | 93rd |
| Opponent 3P% | 32.4% | 133rd | 34.5% | 249th |
| Defensive Rebounds | 28.8 | 62nd | 26.4 | 7th |
| Steals Per Game | 6.2 | 46th | 6.4 | 126th |
| Blocks Per Game | 2.6 | 69th | 2.5 | 179th |
Why Arizona Can Cover the Spread (+2.5)
Rebounding Edge
- Arizona averages 37.0 RPG (16th) vs. BYU’s 34.4 RPG (78th).
- Arizona’s offensive rebounding advantage could lead to extra possessions.
Defensive Advantage
- Arizona holds opponents to 40.1% FG (33rd), making it difficult for BYU to score inside.
- BYU relies heavily on the three-ball, and Arizona limits opponents to 32.4% opponent 3P (133rd).
Free-Throw Advantage
- Arizona 76.4% FT (36th) vs. BYU’s 68.9% FT (278th).
- In a tight game, Arizona is more reliable from the line.
Extra Value with the Line Shift
- Arizona opened as a +1.5 underdog, but the move to +2.5 provides extra insurance in a close game.
- If this comes down to late-game free throws, Arizona has the clear advantage.
Why BYU Can Cover (-2.5)
Three-Point Shooting
- BYU hits 37.5% 3P (39th), making 10.7 per game (10th nationally).
- If they shoot well, Arizona’s lack of perimeter firepower could hurt them.
Home Court Factor
- BYU’s 11-1 home record suggests they thrive in their environment.
Arizona’s First-Half Struggles
- Arizona averages 40.4 first-half PPG (317th), often starting slow.
- If BYU builds an early lead, Arizona may struggle to catch up.
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score
Arizona 77, BYU 74
Spread Pick: Arizona +2.5 (-110)
- Arizona’s rebounding and defensive edge should be enough to limit BYU’s three-point shooting.
- Free-throw shooting is a major factor—Arizona’s 76.4% FT (36th) vs. BYU’s 68.9% (278th) could be the difference in a close game.
Confidence Level: High – Arizona has the statistical advantages to pull off a road win or stay within the number.
Total (O/U) Lean: Under 152.5 (-110)
- If Arizona controls tempo and forces BYU into tougher shots, this could land under the total.
- Arizona’s defense and rebounding should limit second-chance points.
Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Arizona +2.5 (-110)
Value Play: Arizona ML (+120)
Lean: Under 152.5 (-110)
Arizona’s defense, rebounding, and free-throw advantage make them the right side in a close matchup. BYU’s home-court and three-point shooting give them a chance, but Arizona’s ability to control possessions should be the deciding factor. Expect the Wildcats to win outright or cover as underdogs.
