Balanced Scoring Attack: Marquette averages 79.2 PPG (72nd), a strong mark against a Butler defense allowing 71.7 PPG (194th).
Turnover Efficiency:9.1 TO per game (3rd) and a 1.6 AST/TO ratio (18th) make them one of the most disciplined teams in the nation.
Volume Three-Point Shooting: Despite shooting just 32.7% from deep (248th), they attempt 29.5 threes per game (14th), stretching defenses.
Free Throw Reliability:74.3% FT (101st) ensures they can close games effectively.
Transition Play: Their ability to push tempo and create easy baskets makes them a nightmare matchup for teams that struggle defensively in transition.
Defensive Strengths:
Elite Turnover Pressure: They force 10.4 steals per game (46th), ranking 3rd in the nation in total steals.
Perimeter Defense: They hold opponents to 31.0% from three (70th), limiting efficient outside shooting.
Shot Blocking Presence:3.9 blocks per game (49th) protects the rim.
Defensive Intensity: Marquette’s aggressive full-court pressure forces opponents into difficult possessions, leading to fast-break opportunities.
Butler Bulldogs (9-11, 7-5 Home)
Offensive Strengths:
Reliable Three-Point Shooting: Butler shoots 36.7% from three (53rd), a clear advantage over Marquette’s 32.7%.
Free Throw Dependability:74.4% FT (93rd), ensuring they take advantage of foul-line opportunities.
Ball Security: Butler’s 11.1 TO per game (89th) is respectable, but they haven’t faced many elite defensive pressure teams like Marquette.
Defensive Strengths:
Strong Perimeter Defense: Opponents shoot just 30.5% from three (59th), making it difficult for teams reliant on outside shooting.
Shot Defense: They allow opponents to shoot 42.2% FG (113th), a respectable number.
Rebounding Struggles: They allow 31.4 RPG (190th) and do not generate enough second-chance stops.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offense
Metric
Marquette (Rank)
Butler (Rank)
FG%
44.8% (180)
45.1% (166)
3P%
32.7% (248)
36.7% (53)
FT%
74.3% (101)
74.4% (93)
Assists
14.5 (133)
13.9 (172)
Turnovers
9.1 (3)
11.1 (89)
Points Per Game
79.2 (72)
73.2 (226)
Defense
Metric
Marquette (Rank)
Butler (Rank)
Opponent FG%
42.2% (113)
43.8% (209)
Opponent 3P%
31.0% (70)
30.5% (59)
Defensive Rebounds
21.9 (52)
23.6 (314)
Steals
10.4 (46)
6.5 (362)
Points Allowed
66.8 (55)
71.7 (194)
Pace and Tempo
Marquette: Plays at an up-tempo pace, ranking 72nd in scoring (79.2 PPG) and excelling in transition offense.
Butler: Prefers a slower pace, relying on three-point shooting and half-court execution.
Edge:Marquette – They will dictate the pace, forcing Butler into a style they are uncomfortable with.
Home/Away Performance
Team
Home Record
Away Record
Marquette
11-1
5-2
Butler
7-5
0-5
Marquette has won 5 of 7 road games and has been effective in tough environments.
Butler has been solid at home (7-5), but they have yet to beat a team of Marquette’s caliber.
Edge:Marquette – Their strong road play gives them the advantage.
Matchup-Specific Factors
Marquette’s Turnover Pressure vs. Butler’s Ball Security: Marquette ranks 3rd in steals nationally, and Butler has not faced a team that pressures the ball this well.
Three-Point Shooting Battle: Butler is the better three-point shooting team (36.7%), but Marquette’s defense limits opponents to 31.0%.
Rebounding Concerns: Butler holds a rebounding edge, ranking 52nd in defensive rebounds per game, while Marquette struggles (314th in defensive rebounds allowed).
Transition Play: Marquette thrives in fast-break situations, which will be a significant issue for Butler, as they struggle to force turnovers and defend in transition.
Game Odds (Updated)
Team
Spread
Total
Moneyline
Marquette
-7.5 (-110)
o146.5 (-110)
-325
Butler
+7.5 (-110)
u146.5 (-110)
+260
Prediction and Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score
Predicted Score:Marquette 81, Butler 72
Winner:Marquette
Spread Pick
Pick:Marquette -7.5
Why?
Marquette’s elite defensive pressure will disrupt Butler’s offense.
Turnovers will be a deciding factor, as Butler does not generate enough defensive stops to slow Marquette.
Marquette’s transition scoring will exploit Butler’s lack of interior defense.
Marquette is 5-2 on the road, proving they can win away from home.
Betting Insights
Confidence Level:Medium-High
Trends to Note:
Marquette is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers.
Butler has lost all 5 of their road games, and while they are home here, they have struggled against elite teams.
Marquette’s aggressive playstyle should allow them to dictate tempo and control the game.
Over 146.5 is worth consideration if Marquette’s offense fires on all cylinders.
Final Conclusion
Marquette is simply the better team, with elite defensive pressure, fast-paced scoring, and superior ball security. Butler’s home-court advantage and three-point shooting may keep them in the game early, but Marquette’s transition game and defensive intensity will wear them down over 40 minutes. Expect Marquette to pull away late and cover the -7.5 spread, with a final score around 81-72.
