Game Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders
- Date/Time: January 12, 2025, 5:00 PM (NBC)
- Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- Spread: Buccaneers -3 Favorites
Team Overview
Washington Commanders (12-5-0, 2nd NFC East)
Washington comes into this matchup with a balanced offense and a strong rushing attack, ranking 3rd in the NFL with 154.1 rushing yards per game. They average 28.5 points per game (5th), supported by efficient third-down play (45.6%, 6th in the league). However, their 17th-ranked passing attack lacks the firepower of their ground game.
Defensively, Washington shines in pass coverage, allowing just 189.5 passing yards per game (3rd). However, they are vulnerable on the ground, ranking 30th in rushing defense and surrendering 137.5 yards per game. This imbalance could be exploited by Tampa Bay’s multifaceted offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7-0, 1st NFC South)
The Buccaneers boast one of the league’s most explosive offenses, ranking 3rd in total yards (414.2) and 4th in points per game (29.5). Their passing game is elite, averaging 250.4 yards per game (3rd), while their rushing attack is also a strength, ranking 4th with 149.2 yards per game. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in third-down efficiency (50.9%), making them difficult to stop in critical situations.
Defensively, Tampa Bay is strong against the run, allowing just 97.8 rushing yards per game (4th). However, their secondary is a weakness, giving up 243.9 passing yards per game (29th). Their ability to stop Washington’s ground game and force them into passing situations will be a key factor.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Commanders’ Rushing Attack vs. Buccaneers’ Run Defense
Washington’s success hinges on their ability to run the ball. Tampa Bay’s 4th-ranked run defense will need to step up to force the Commanders into third-and-long situations, where their passing game is less effective. - Buccaneers’ Passing Attack vs. Commanders’ Secondary
Tampa Bay’s prolific passing game will face one of the league’s top secondaries. Washington must find ways to pressure the quarterback to disrupt Tampa Bay’s rhythm. - Third-Down Efficiency
Both teams excel on third downs, with Tampa Bay ranking 1st and Washington 6th. Sustaining drives will be critical, especially in late-game situations.
Prediction
This game will likely be decided at the line of scrimmage, where Tampa Bay holds key advantages. The Buccaneers’ ability to shut down Washington’s 3rd-ranked rushing attack with their elite run defense will force the Commanders to rely on their less consistent passing game. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s balanced offense, led by their 3rd-ranked passing attack, is well-equipped to exploit Washington’s struggling run defense and keep their secondary on its heels.
With home-field advantage, superior third-down efficiency, and a more complete offensive arsenal, the Buccaneers should control the tempo and find success in critical moments. While Washington’s strong defense could keep it close, Tampa Bay’s playmakers give them the edge to secure the win and cover the spread.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Commanders 23
Pick: Buccaneers -3 (Confidence Level: High)
