DePaul Blue Demons (8-2) at St. John’s Red Storm (8-2)
Spread: St. John’s -13
Overview
Two 8-2 teams meet as the DePaul Blue Demons head to New York to face the St. John’s Red Storm in what promises to be an exciting matchup. St. John’s has been dominant on the boards and defensively this season, while DePaul’s sharp shooting and efficient offense pose a challenge for the Red Storm.
Team Strengths
DePaul Blue Demons
DePaul boasts an efficient offense, ranking:
- 13th in Three-Point Percentage (40.4%)
- 5th in Assists per Game (19.9)
Their ability to share the ball and knock down shots has propelled them to an impressive start. However, their free throw struggles (68.1%, 266th) and middle-tier rebounding (39.1 RPG, 70th) could be a liability against a physical St. John’s team.
Key Focus: DePaul will need to rely on its perimeter shooting and ball movement to keep pace.
St. John’s Red Storm
St. John’s thrives on athleticism and interior dominance:
- 15th in Rebounds per Game (42.4 RPG)
- 7th in Blocked Shots (6.0 BPG)
The Red Storm are elite on the glass and in protecting the paint. While their Three-Point Percentage (32.9%, 223rd) leaves room for improvement, their transition offense and second-chance opportunities often compensate for inefficiencies from deep.
Key Focus: Winning the rebounding battle and limiting DePaul’s three-point attempts will be crucial for St. John’s to cover the spread.
Matchup Breakdown
- Offense: St. John’s has a slight edge, scoring 84.4 PPG (32nd) compared to DePaul’s 83.2 PPG (43rd).
- Shooting Efficiency: DePaul is more efficient from three (40.4%), but St. John’s dominates inside, fueled by rebounding and second-chance points.
- Defense: St. John’s excels defensively with 6.0 blocks per game (7th) and strong rebounding. DePaul will struggle inside if their shooters go cold.
Prediction
St. John’s superior rebounding and paint presence will wear down DePaul, especially on second-chance opportunities. While DePaul’s offense can keep things close early with its shooting, St. John’s depth and physicality should take over in the second half.
Prediction: St. John’s wins 84-70
Best Bet
St. John’s -13
Despite the large spread, St. John’s interior dominance, defensive prowess, and home-court advantage make them the clear choice to cover. DePaul’s reliance on three-point shooting may not be enough against St. John’s physical defense.
James Madison Dukes (6-4) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-3)
Spread: Wake Forest -8
Tip-off: 7:00 PM | Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Overview
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will host the James Madison Dukes in a game where contrasting styles meet. Wake Forest enters with an 8-3 record but struggles offensively, while James Madison is a more efficient scoring team despite being inconsistent on defense. This game will come down to Wake Forest’s ability to slow down James Madison’s offense and win the rebounding battle.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
James Madison Dukes
James Madison relies on balanced scoring and efficient three-point shooting:
- 36.8% from Three-Point Range (78th in the nation).
- 14.4 Assists per Game (167th) highlight their team-oriented offense.
While the Dukes can score at a respectable clip (76.7 PPG, 168th), they lack elite defense and rim protection:
- 3.2 Blocks per Game (192nd).
- Struggles to dominate the glass (37.1 RPG, 148th).
Key Focus: James Madison will need to rely on its perimeter shooting and play at a faster pace to challenge Wake Forest’s defense.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest’s record of 8-3 masks significant offensive inefficiencies:
- 67.4 Points per Game (325th).
- Poor shooting from beyond the arc (26.4% Three-Point Percentage, 357th).
Where Wake Forest excels is in its free-throw shooting (73.6%, 112th) and ability to block shots (4.4 BPG, 74th). However, their rebounding has been subpar (34.4 RPG, 272nd), leaving them vulnerable to second-chance opportunities.
Key Focus: Wake Forest must lean on its defense and shot-blocking to disrupt James Madison’s offense and capitalize on opportunities at the free-throw line.
Matchup Breakdown
- Offense: James Madison has a significant edge offensively, scoring nearly 10 points more per game.
- Defense: Wake Forest’s ability to protect the rim (4.4 blocks) gives them a defensive edge.
- Rebounding: Neither team is dominant, but James Madison holds a slight edge.
- Shooting: James Madison is far more efficient, especially from three (36.8% vs. 26.4%).
Prediction
This game feels closer than the 8-point spread suggests. James Madison’s superior offensive efficiency and three-point shooting will keep them competitive, especially if Wake Forest’s offense continues to sputter. While Wake Forest’s defense and home-court advantage give them an edge, it’s unlikely they’ll win by a large margin unless they find scoring consistency.
Prediction: Wake Forest wins 72-67
Best Bet
James Madison +8
James Madison’s efficient offense and Wake Forest’s inability to score consistently make the Dukes the better play to cover the spread. Wake Forest should still win outright, but it’s unlikely they’ll pull away by double digits.
#7 Florida Gators (10-0) at North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4)
Spread: Florida -3.5
Overview
The undefeated Florida Gators head to North Carolina to face the 6-4 Tar Heels in a battle of high-powered offenses. Florida is looking to maintain their perfect record, while North Carolina hopes to bounce back and grab a key win on their home turf. The matchup will center around Florida’s elite rebounding and interior defense against North Carolina’s efficiency at the free-throw line and steady scoring.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
Florida Gators
Florida’s dominance stems from their athleticism, rebounding, and shot-blocking:
- Rebounds per Game: 43.4 (7th in the nation).
- Blocked Shots: 5.5 per game (13th).
Offensively, they rank 17th in Points per Game (86.2) and share the ball well with 15.7 Assists per Game (87th). However, their Three-Point Percentage (33.6%, 190th) is slightly below average, leaving room for improvement from long range.
Key Focus: Florida will need to dominate the glass and control the tempo, limiting North Carolina’s opportunities for second-chance points.
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina also features a potent offense, slightly edging Florida in scoring:
- Points per Game: 86.8 (14th).
- Free Throw Percentage: 75.5% (64th), a key edge late in close games.
The Tar Heels, however, struggle defensively with Blocked Shots per Game at just 3.9 (117th), and they rank 222nd in Three-Point Percentage (32.9%). Their rebounding (39.5 RPG, 60th) is solid but not on par with Florida’s elite effort on the boards.
Key Focus: North Carolina must shoot well from the field and rely on their free-throw advantage to stay competitive, especially if they get into late-game foul situations.
Matchup Breakdown
- Offense: Both teams are high-scoring, with North Carolina (86.8) holding a slight edge over Florida (86.2).
- Rebounding: Florida has a significant advantage, grabbing 43.4 rebounds per game (7th), compared to North Carolina’s 39.5 (60th).
- Defense: Florida’s ability to block shots (5.5 BPG, 13th) could make a big difference in protecting the paint against the Tar Heels.
- Shooting: North Carolina has a slight edge in free-throw efficiency (75.5%), while neither team excels from three-point range.
Prediction
Florida’s ability to dominate the glass and protect the rim will make the difference in this game. North Carolina’s scoring is solid, but they lack the interior presence to match Florida’s size and physicality. Florida should also capitalize on extra possessions created through rebounding dominance.
Prediction: Florida wins 82-75
Best Bet
Florida -3.5
Florida’s rebounding edge and ability to control the paint give them a significant advantage. With a balanced offense and solid defensive presence, the Gators are poised to cover the spread and remain undefeated.
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (5-4) at #22 Dayton Flyers (9-2)
Spread: Dayton -11
Overview
The Dayton Flyers (9-2) are hosting the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (5-4) in a matchup where Dayton’s balanced offensive attack and superior ball movement will likely pose problems for an inconsistent UNLV team. Dayton enters as a significant 11-point favorite, and for good reason—this matchup favors their strengths, especially in shooting efficiency and playmaking.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
UNLV has been inconsistent offensively this season, ranking:
- 246th in Points per Game (72.8).
- 207th in Field Goal Percentage (44.5%).
Despite their struggles to score efficiently, UNLV is a respectable three-point shooting team at 37.9% (52nd in the nation). However, they lack rebounding presence, ranking 325th in Rebounds per Game (32.6), which could be a major issue against Dayton.
Key Focus: UNLV will need to stay hot from beyond the arc and limit second-chance opportunities to keep this game competitive.
Dayton Flyers
Dayton has been elite in shooting efficiency and playmaking:
- 26th in Field Goal Percentage (49.8%).
- 24th in Assists per Game (17.7).
Their ability to share the ball and find high-percentage shots has powered their offense to 79.8 Points per Game (94th). While Dayton isn’t dominant on the glass (35.8 RPG, 223rd), they are still far better than UNLV in that department. Free throw shooting (69.6%, 236th) remains a weakness, but their offensive efficiency compensates.
Key Focus: Dayton must take advantage of UNLV’s rebounding struggles to control possessions and maintain their efficient scoring pace.
Matchup Breakdown
- Offense: Dayton has a clear edge in scoring (79.8 PPG vs. 72.8 PPG) and shooting efficiency (49.8% FG vs. 44.5% FG).
- Three-Point Shooting: Both teams are strong from beyond the arc, with UNLV at 37.9% (52nd) and Dayton at 37.5% (59th).
- Rebounding: Dayton holds an edge, though neither team is elite. UNLV’s struggles (32.6 RPG, 325th) could cost them significantly.
- Defense: Dayton’s shot-blocking is average (3.6 BPG, 149th), but UNLV’s slightly better mark of 4.1 BPG (92nd) gives them a minor edge here.
Prediction
Dayton’s combination of efficient shooting, superior ball movement, and rebounding advantage makes them the clear favorite in this matchup. UNLV’s reliance on three-point shooting will keep them in the game early, but their lack of presence on the boards will ultimately lead to their downfall. Dayton should pull away in the second half and cover the spread comfortably.
Prediction: Dayton wins 81-67
Best Bet
Dayton -11
Dayton’s offensive efficiency, superior rebounding, and ability to control the pace make them a strong play to cover the double-digit spread. UNLV’s inconsistencies and struggles on the glass will be too much to overcome on the road.
George Mason Patriots (7-3) at #5 Duke Blue Devils (8-2)
Spread: Duke -19
Overview
The Duke Blue Devils look to continue their strong start to the season as they host George Mason. Duke’s talent, depth, and rebounding dominance present a significant challenge for the Patriots, who will need near-perfect offensive execution to keep this game competitive. The key battle will be on the boards and whether George Mason can limit Duke’s second-chance opportunities.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
George Mason Patriots
George Mason enters the game as a solid offensive team:
- Field Goal Percentage: 48.4% (52nd in the nation), showing their ability to find high-quality shots.
- Rebounds per Game: 39.2 (68th), a respectable number but still slightly behind Duke.
However, their weaknesses are glaring:
- Blocked Shots: 2.5 per game (294th), which highlights their lack of rim protection.
- Assists per Game: 13.6 (214th), indicating limited ball movement against stronger defenses.
Key Focus: George Mason will need to slow the tempo, hit shots consistently, and avoid getting overwhelmed on the glass.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke enters this matchup as the superior team in nearly every metric, led by:
- Points per Game: 79.7 (97th), powered by balanced scoring and efficient ball movement.
- Rebounds per Game: 40.2 (41st), giving them a strong edge on the boards.
- Assists per Game: 16.2 (63rd), reflecting their ability to share the ball effectively.
Duke’s defense, while solid, has room for improvement in shot-blocking (3.7 BPG, 133rd). However, their depth and ability to control pace at home will make life difficult for George Mason.
Key Focus: Duke must dominate the paint and take advantage of George Mason’s limited interior defense.
Matchup Breakdown
- Scoring: Duke holds the edge (79.7 PPG vs. 78.7 PPG), with deeper talent and more consistent execution.
- Rebounding: Duke’s 40.2 RPG (41st) is a clear advantage over George Mason’s 39.2 RPG (68th).
- Shooting Efficiency: George Mason is slightly better in field goal percentage (48.4% vs. 46.3%), but Duke’s defense will challenge that.
- Ball Movement: Duke’s 16.2 APG (63rd) far surpasses George Mason’s 13.6 APG (214th), showcasing their offensive cohesion.
Prediction
Duke’s talent, rebounding dominance, and home-court advantage will be too much for George Mason to overcome. While George Mason shoots well from the field, their lack of interior defense and rim protection will allow Duke to control the paint and build a comfortable lead.
Prediction: Duke wins 85-63
Best Bet
Duke -19
Duke’s superior rebounding, ball movement, and defensive pressure make them the clear choice to cover the spread. George Mason’s lack of size and defensive presence will prevent them from keeping pace in this one.
#25 Clemson Tigers (9-2) at South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3)
Spread: Clemson -2.5
Overview
A heated rivalry game between the Clemson Tigers and the South Carolina Gamecocks is set to be tightly contested. Clemson, ranked #25, enters as a slight 2.5-point favorite on the road, backed by their efficient three-point shooting and free-throw accuracy. South Carolina, while solid, will need to address its offensive inconsistencies and poor free-throw shooting to pull off the upset.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
Clemson Tigers
Clemson’s balanced scoring and perimeter efficiency are their key strengths:
- Three-Point Percentage: 37.5% (55th), providing a reliable scoring threat from deep.
- Free Throw Percentage: 74.2% (97th), critical for late-game situations.
While their offense averages a respectable 77.5 PPG (146th), their rebounding (37.6 RPG, 121st) and blocked shots (3.6 BPG, 137th) are just average.
Key Focus: Clemson will need to lean on their perimeter shooting and capitalize on South Carolina’s weaknesses at the free-throw line to maintain control late in the game.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina struggles offensively compared to Clemson:
- Points per Game: 74.9 (204th).
- Free Throw Percentage: 66.7% (303rd), a glaring issue that could cost them in a close game.
Their strengths lie in their field goal efficiency (45.8%, 154th) and steady assists (14.4 APG, 167th). However, their rebounding (36.9 RPG, 163rd) and shot-blocking (3.2 BPG, 192nd) lack the edge needed to dominate inside.
Key Focus: South Carolina must play physical defense, limit Clemson’s open three-point looks, and find scoring consistency to keep this game close.
Matchup Breakdown
- Offense: Clemson has the edge with more efficient scoring (77.5 PPG vs. 74.9 PPG) and superior shooting from deep.
- Free Throws: Clemson holds a significant advantage (74.2% vs. 66.7%), which could decide the game late.
- Defense and Rebounding: Both teams are middle of the pack in rebounds and blocks, giving neither a distinct edge inside.
- X-Factor: Clemson’s three-point shooting (37.5%) versus South Carolina’s inability to defend or match that efficiency could be the deciding factor.
Prediction
Clemson’s ability to knock down threes and capitalize on free-throw opportunities gives them a decisive edge in this matchup. South Carolina’s scoring inconsistencies and free-throw struggles make it difficult to trust them in a close game, especially against a ranked opponent.
Prediction: Clemson wins 74-68
Best Bet
Clemson -2.5
Clemson’s three-point shooting, free-throw accuracy, and overall offensive efficiency will allow them to pull away late and cover the small spread. South Carolina’s inability to capitalize at the line will prove costly in crunch time.
Winthrop Eagles (9-3) at Florida State Seminoles (8-3)
Spread: Florida State -11
Overview
The Florida State Seminoles host the Winthrop Eagles in a matchup of contrasting styles. Winthrop brings a high-powered offense and elite rebounding into this game, while Florida State’s strengths lie in their athletic defense and rim protection. The outcome will hinge on whether Florida State can slow down Winthrop’s scoring and dominate on the boards to justify the 11-point spread.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
Winthrop Eagles
Winthrop excels in two critical areas:
- Points per Game: 86.8 (15th in the nation), showcasing their potent offense.
- Rebounds per Game: 42.6 (11th), which gives them an edge on second-chance opportunities.
However, their shooting efficiency beyond the arc (30.3%, 308th) and free-throw struggles (67.7%, 274th) are major weaknesses. They also lack elite ball movement (12.7 Assists per Game, 269th), which could make it difficult to break down Florida State’s defense.
Key Focus: Winthrop must use their rebounding advantage to create extra possessions and hope their offense can offset poor three-point shooting.
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State has the defensive edge in this matchup:
- Blocked Shots: 5.0 per game (32nd), highlighting their ability to protect the rim.
- Field Goal Percentage Defense: A strong interior presence allows them to limit easy scoring opportunities.
Offensively, they are less dominant but still respectable:
- Points per Game: 78.1 (135th).
- Three-Point Percentage: 31.7% (269th), which is below average but slightly better than Winthrop.
Their rebounding (34.4 RPG, 272nd) is a glaring weakness, which could pose problems against a strong Winthrop frontcourt.
Key Focus: Florida State must use their length and athleticism to control the paint defensively and capitalize on transition opportunities created by forced turnovers.
Matchup Breakdown
- Offense: Winthrop holds a clear advantage, scoring 86.8 PPG compared to Florida State’s 78.1.
- Defense: Florida State’s shot-blocking (5.0 BPG, 32nd) and overall defensive athleticism give them the edge.
- Rebounding: Winthrop’s dominance on the boards (42.6 RPG, 11th) poses a significant challenge for Florida State.
- Shooting: Neither team is strong from three, but Florida State has a slight edge (31.7% vs. 30.3%).
Prediction
This game will be closer than the spread suggests. Winthrop’s rebounding dominance and scoring ability give them a chance to hang around against Florida State’s inconsistent offense. However, Florida State’s superior defense, shot-blocking, and home-court advantage will ultimately prove decisive in the second half.
Prediction: Florida State wins 79-72
Best Bet
Winthrop +11
Winthrop’s rebounding and scoring potential should keep this game closer than the double-digit spread. While Florida State will likely win outright, their struggles on the boards and inconsistent offense make it difficult for them to pull away by 11 points.
acksonville State Gamecocks (6-4) at Missouri Tigers (9-1)
Spread: Missouri -11
Overview
Missouri, off to an impressive 9-1 start, hosts Jacksonville State in a matchup between a dominant offensive team and a gritty, well-rounded opponent. Missouri’s elite scoring efficiency and tempo will clash with Jacksonville State’s strong rebounding and above-average shooting. The Gamecocks will look to control the pace and dominate the boards to stay within striking distance, but Missouri’s high-powered offense poses a significant challenge.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State excels in efficiency, particularly:
- Three-Point Shooting: 37.7% (54th in the nation).
- Free Throw Shooting: 78.2% (25th), which could be key in a closer-than-expected game.
- Rebounding: 41.5 RPG (22nd), giving them an edge on the glass over Missouri.
However, they are not great facilitators, averaging just 12.9 Assists per Game (257th), which may limit their offensive flow against a solid defensive team like Missouri.
Key Focus: Jacksonville State must crash the boards, slow the pace, and take advantage of their superior free-throw shooting to keep the game close.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri is an offensive juggernaut, excelling in multiple key areas:
- Points per Game: 89.3 (4th in the nation).
- Field Goal Percentage: 52.2% (2nd), highlighting their ability to score efficiently both inside and out.
- Blocked Shots: 4.2 per game (82nd), giving them a slight defensive edge in the paint.
Their rebounding, however, is a weakness at just 35.6 RPG (231st), which could allow Jacksonville State to create second-chance opportunities.
Key Focus: Missouri must maintain their high offensive efficiency and limit Jacksonville State’s second-chance points to cover the spread comfortably.
Matchup Breakdown
- Scoring: Missouri holds a decisive edge (89.3 PPG vs. 78.6 PPG).
- Shooting Efficiency: Missouri is elite at 52.2% FG (2nd), while Jacksonville State shoots well at 47.9% (72nd).
- Rebounding: Jacksonville State has the edge (41.5 RPG vs. 35.6 RPG), which could keep them competitive.
- Free Throws: Jacksonville State has a significant advantage (78.2% vs. 71.6%).
Prediction
While Jacksonville State’s rebounding and free-throw shooting are impressive, Missouri’s scoring power and efficiency will likely overwhelm the Gamecocks. Jacksonville State might hang around early by dominating the boards, but Missouri’s ability to push the tempo and score at will should allow them to pull away late.
Prediction: Missouri wins 85-71
Best Bet
Missouri -11
Missouri’s elite offense and efficiency should allow them to control the game and pull away in the second half. Jacksonville State’s rebounding will help them stay competitive early, but they lack the firepower to keep pace for 40 minutes. Missouri covers the spread.
Seton Hall Pirates (5-6) at Villanova Wildcats (7-4)
Spread: Villanova -8.5
Overview
The struggling Seton Hall Pirates travel to face the Villanova Wildcats, a team that has performed well offensively but faces inconsistencies in other areas. Villanova’s sharp shooting and efficiency at the free-throw line make them the favorites, while Seton Hall’s lack of scoring and overall shooting struggles could prove disastrous on the road.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
Seton Hall Pirates
Seton Hall’s offensive production has been one of the worst in the country:
- Points per Game: 60.4 (359th in the nation).
- Field Goal Percentage: 40.9% (331st).
- Free Throw Percentage: 59.4% (361st), which will severely limit any chances of staying competitive late.
On the positive side, Seton Hall has been decent from three-point range (35.4%, 112th) and provides average rim protection with 3.3 Blocks per Game (183rd).
Key Focus: To have any chance of covering the spread, Seton Hall must slow the game down, rely on their three-point shooting, and avoid getting into foul trouble given their free throw woes.
Villanova Wildcats
Villanova’s offensive prowess makes them dangerous, especially at home:
- Field Goal Percentage: 48.4% (53rd).
- Three-Point Percentage: 40.5% (11th), highlighting their ability to shoot efficiently from beyond the arc.
- Free Throw Percentage: 79.9% (12th), a significant advantage that will close the door late in a tight game.
Their rebounding is below average (36.0 RPG, 211th), and they are not a shot-blocking force (2.6 BPG, 289th), but their offensive firepower and shooting efficiency will likely carry the day against a weak Seton Hall offense.
Key Focus: Villanova must continue to shoot efficiently and take advantage of Seton Hall’s scoring droughts to build an early lead and cruise to victory.
Matchup Breakdown
- Offense: Villanova holds a massive advantage, scoring 79.1 PPG (109th) versus Seton Hall’s 60.4 PPG (359th).
- Shooting Efficiency: Villanova is elite both from the field (48.4%) and from three (40.5%). Seton Hall struggles mightily (40.9%).
- Free Throws: Villanova’s 79.9% (12th) is a stark contrast to Seton Hall’s 59.4% (361st), which will be critical late in the game.
- Defense and Rebounding: Neither team dominates the glass or blocks shots, but Seton Hall’s offensive weaknesses outweigh any defensive edge they might hold.
Prediction
Villanova’s shooting and free-throw efficiency, combined with Seton Hall’s offensive struggles, make this matchup heavily tilted in Villanova’s favor. Seton Hall simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up, and unless they shoot exceptionally well from three, Villanova should cover this spread comfortably.
Prediction: Villanova wins 76-60
Best Bet
Villanova -8.5
Villanova’s offensive efficiency and Seton Hall’s scoring woes make this an easy call. Villanova should dominate both ends of the court and pull away early to cover the spread.
Drake Bulldogs (9-0) at Kansas State Wildcats (6-3)
Spread: Kansas State -1.5
Overview
The undefeated Drake Bulldogs take on the Kansas State Wildcats in a closely matched contest. Drake’s elite shooting efficiency will be tested against Kansas State’s balanced offense and superior rebounding. The Wildcats come in as slight favorites, but Drake’s consistency and discipline make this an intriguing battle.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
Drake Bulldogs
Drake’s offense thrives on efficiency, particularly inside the arc:
- Field Goal Percentage: 50.1% (19th in the nation), showcasing their ability to score efficiently.
- Assists per Game: 15.3 (107th), highlighting their ball movement and ability to generate open looks.
However, rebounding remains a major weakness (33.9 RPG, 292nd), which could hurt them against a more physical Kansas State team. Defensively, they struggle to block shots (2.4 BPG, 301st), leaving them vulnerable around the rim.
Key Focus: Drake must control the tempo, limit turnovers, and rely on their efficient offense to offset their rebounding struggles.
Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State brings a more well-rounded offense into the game:
- Points per Game: 80.4 (81st), providing a consistent scoring punch.
- Three-Point Shooting: 37.5% (55th), a key edge over Drake in perimeter scoring.
The Wildcats also have a moderate advantage on the boards (36.3 RPG, 193rd) and in ball distribution (17.0 APG, 41st), which highlights their ability to create high-percentage shots.
Key Focus: Kansas State must exploit Drake’s rebounding deficiencies, attack the paint, and win second-chance opportunities to wear down the Bulldogs.
Matchup Breakdown
- Offense: Kansas State scores more (80.4 PPG vs. 75.0 PPG) but Drake is far more efficient shooting from the field (50.1% vs. 47.2%).
- Shooting: Kansas State has the edge from three-point range (37.5% vs. 34.9%).
- Rebounding: Kansas State holds the clear advantage (36.3 RPG vs. 33.9 RPG), a critical factor in this matchup.
- Defense: Neither team excels defensively, but Kansas State’s slightly better shot-blocking gives them an edge.
Prediction
This game comes down to Drake’s efficiency versus Kansas State’s rebounding and scoring depth. Drake’s shooting will keep them competitive, but Kansas State’s physicality on the boards and ability to score both inside and out will ultimately tilt the game in their favor. The spread is tight, and Kansas State’s home-court-like advantage at the neutral T-Mobile Center gives them an edge.
Prediction: Kansas State wins 76-72
Best Bet
Kansas State -1.5
Kansas State’s edge in rebounding and three-point shooting will help them control the game late and cover the small spread. Drake’s offense is efficient but lacks the size and physicality to keep up for 40 minutes.
UC San Diego Tritons (9-2) at Utah State Aggies (10-0)
Spread: Utah State -8.5
Tip-off: 9:00 PM | Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
Overview
The undefeated Utah State Aggies host the impressive 9-2 UC San Diego Tritons in a matchup that pits Utah State’s dominant offense and rebounding against UC San Diego’s efficient, balanced play. Utah State’s ability to control the boards and move the ball effectively gives them a significant edge, but the Tritons’ perimeter shooting can keep them in the game if they get hot early.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
UC San Diego Tritons
UC San Diego has shown they can compete offensively:
- Three-Point Percentage: 36.0% (97th), providing a reliable perimeter scoring threat.
- Assists per Game: 15.2 (116th), reflecting solid ball movement and team-oriented play.
However, rebounding and interior defense are glaring weaknesses:
- Rebounds per Game: 34.0 (288th), which will be problematic against a Utah State team that dominates the glass.
- Blocked Shots: 1.6 per game (352nd), leaving them vulnerable around the rim.
Key Focus: UC San Diego must knock down threes at a high rate and limit second-chance opportunities to stay competitive.
Utah State Aggies
Utah State has been dominant on both ends of the court:
- Points per Game: 87.6 (9th in the nation), fueled by their efficient shooting and transition offense.
- Field Goal Percentage: 49.0% (38th), reflecting their ability to create and finish high-percentage shots.
- Rebounds per Game: 40.2 (41st), giving them a major advantage on the glass.
- Assists per Game: 18.4 (17th), showcasing their unselfish play and ball movement.
Defensively, they aren’t elite in shot-blocking (3.3 BPG, 178th), but they are solid enough to disrupt UC San Diego’s interior game.
Key Focus: Utah State must use their rebounding dominance and offensive efficiency to wear down UC San Diego and pull away late.
Matchup Breakdown
- Offense: Utah State’s scoring (87.6 PPG) far outpaces UC San Diego’s 78.7 PPG.
- Rebounding: Utah State has a clear edge (40.2 RPG vs. 34.0 RPG).
- Shooting: Utah State shoots efficiently overall (49.0%), but UC San Diego has the slight edge from three (36.0% vs. 34.7%).
- Defense: Utah State’s size and rebounding give them an advantage in limiting UC San Diego’s second-chance points.
Prediction
Utah State’s superior offense, rebounding, and home-court advantage will prove too much for UC San Diego. While the Tritons’ three-point shooting could keep them competitive early, Utah State’s physicality on the boards and offensive efficiency will allow them to pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Utah State wins 84-72
Best Bet
Utah State -8.5
Utah State’s dominance in rebounding and scoring efficiency should allow them to control the tempo and cover the spread. UC San Diego’s struggles on the glass and interior defense will be too much to overcome on the road.
Best Bets
- St. John’s -13
- James Madison +8
- Florida -3.5
- Dayton -11
- Missouri -11
- Villanova -8.5
- Kansas State -1.5
- Utah State -8.5
- Clemson -2.5
- Winthrop +11
- Duke -19
