12:00 PM: Temple at Hofstra (-1.5)
Game Context:
Hofstra is a slight favorite at home, thanks to their efficient offense and ability to control tempo. Temple’s defense is solid, but their inconsistent scoring makes this game competitive. Hofstra thrives on perimeter shooting, and Temple will need to limit Hofstra’s open looks.
Key Matchups:
- Hofstra’s three-point shooting vs. Temple’s perimeter defense.
- Temple’s rebounding edge against Hofstra’s smaller lineup.
- Late-game free-throw shooting, where Hofstra has the edge.
Why This Matters:
Hofstra’s ability to score efficiently and defend their home court gives them the edge. Temple’s inconsistency on offense limits their ability to pull away late.
Best Bet: Hofstra (-1.5). Their offensive efficiency at home makes them the better pick.
12:00 PM: Navy at Virginia Tech (-12.5)
Game Context:
Virginia Tech’s talent gap and home-court advantage make them heavy favorites, but Navy’s slower tempo and defensive discipline could keep this closer than expected. Virginia Tech excels at perimeter shooting but struggles when forced into contested shots.
Key Matchups:
- Virginia Tech’s three-point shooting vs. Navy’s perimeter defense.
- Navy’s ability to slow the game and limit possessions.
- Rebounding, where Virginia Tech has a slight edge.
Why This Matters:
Virginia Tech is the better team, but Navy’s ability to control tempo and force low-scoring possessions makes covering this large spread difficult.
Best Bet: Navy (+12.5). Their pace control and defensive intensity provide strong underdog value.
12:00 PM: South Alabama (-8.5) at Texas A&M-Commerce
Game Context:
South Alabama’s athleticism and offensive efficiency make them the clear favorites. Texas A&M-Commerce struggles on defense and has limited scoring options, which will make it hard to keep pace with South Alabama’s tempo.
Key Matchups:
- South Alabama’s transition scoring vs. Texas A&M-Commerce’s weak defensive rotations.
- South Alabama’s rebounding edge, creating second-chance opportunities.
Why This Matters:
South Alabama’s fast pace and scoring efficiency align well with the spread. Texas A&M-Commerce doesn’t have the tools to slow down the Jaguars.
Best Bet: South Alabama (-8.5). Their offensive firepower should lead to a double-digit win.
1:00 PM: Nebraska Omaha at Iowa State (-35.5)
Game Context:
Iowa State’s size, talent, and defensive dominance make them heavy favorites against Nebraska Omaha. However, Iowa State plays at a slower tempo, which could make covering this massive spread a challenge. Omaha’s offense is inefficient, but their ability to limit turnovers could help them avoid a total blowout.
Key Matchups:
- Iowa State’s defensive pressure vs. Omaha’s half-court offense.
- Tempo: Iowa State’s slower pace could limit possessions.
Why This Matters:
While Iowa State will win convincingly, their slower pace and Omaha’s ability to slow down play make the spread too large.
Best Bet: Nebraska Omaha (+35.5). The tempo dynamic favors the underdog to cover.
1:00 PM: Norfolk State at Northern Kentucky (-2.5)
Game Context:
Northern Kentucky’s home-court advantage and disciplined defense make them slight favorites. Norfolk State relies heavily on their interior scoring, but Northern Kentucky’s ability to control the boards and force turnovers will play a key role.
Key Matchups:
- Northern Kentucky’s perimeter defense vs. Norfolk State’s scoring inside.
- Turnovers: Northern Kentucky thrives on defensive pressure.
Why This Matters:
This game should stay close, but Northern Kentucky’s defense and home-court energy give them the slight edge.
Best Bet: Northern Kentucky (-2.5). Their defense will create enough stops to secure a cover.
1:00 PM: Northeastern (-6.5) at Old Dominion
Game Context:
Northeastern’s balanced scoring and rebounding make them strong road favorites. Old Dominion struggles with scoring consistency, particularly against teams with solid half-court defenses like Northeastern.
Key Matchups:
- Northeastern’s rebounding dominance vs. Old Dominion’s interior defense.
- Old Dominion’s scoring struggles vs. Northeastern’s disciplined half-court play.
Why This Matters:
Northeastern’s efficiency and ability to exploit Old Dominion’s offensive weaknesses make them the better pick.
Best Bet: Northeastern (-6.5). Their rebounding and scoring depth should lead to a comfortable win.
2:00 PM: New Orleans at Iowa (-31.5)
Game Context:
Iowa’s offensive firepower makes them heavy favorites against New Orleans, a team that struggles defensively. Iowa will look to push the pace and score in transition, but the large spread could be tough to cover if they slow down late.
Key Matchups:
- Iowa’s tempo and transition offense vs. New Orleans’s defense.
- New Orleans’s ability to limit turnovers and slow possessions.
Why This Matters:
While Iowa will dominate, the spread is too large given the potential for Iowa to pull back late in a blowout.
Best Bet: New Orleans (+31.5). Their ability to limit possessions should help them cover.
2:00 PM: Presbyterian at Miami (-15.5)
Game Context:
Miami’s superior athleticism and offensive depth give them a significant edge. Presbyterian struggles to score efficiently, and Miami’s defense should capitalize on their weaknesses.
Key Matchups:
- Miami’s scoring versatility vs. Presbyterian’s inconsistent defense.
- Turnovers: Miami should generate extra possessions.
Why This Matters:
Miami’s fast pace and scoring efficiency align well with the spread, and Presbyterian doesn’t have the tools to compete.
Best Bet: Miami (-15.5). Their offensive firepower should lead to a decisive win.
2:00 PM: Vermont (-1.5) at Colgate
Game Context:
This game features two disciplined teams with strong half-court execution. Vermont’s defense gives them a slight edge, but Colgate’s home-court advantage and perimeter shooting will keep this close.
Key Matchups:
- Vermont’s defense vs. Colgate’s three-point shooting.
- Late-game execution and free-throw shooting.
Why This Matters:
In a tight matchup, Vermont’s defensive consistency makes them the better pick to edge out a win.
Best Bet: Vermont (-1.5). Their defense will be the difference late.
3:00 PM: Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas (-41.5)
Game Context:
Texas is a massive favorite against Arkansas-Pine Bluff due to their superior talent, size, and efficiency on both ends. However, the 41.5-point spread is extremely large, and Texas may pull back late if they build an early lead. Pine Bluff will struggle to score against Texas’s elite defense, but a slower second half could help them cover.
Key Matchups:
- Texas’s transition scoring vs. Pine Bluff’s weak defensive rotations.
- Pine Bluff’s ability to manage turnovers and limit possessions.
- Texas’s bench usage in the second half during a potential blowout.
Why This Matters:
Texas will dominate, but covering 41.5 points requires relentless tempo and scoring throughout the game. Pine Bluff’s effort in garbage time could sneak them within the margin.
Best Bet: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (+41.5). The massive spread combined with a likely slow second half favors the underdog.
3:00 PM: UTSA (-1.5) at North Dakota
Game Context:
UTSA enters as a slight road favorite, relying on their fast pace and transition offense to create an edge. North Dakota, however, has been solid at home and could frustrate UTSA by slowing the game down and controlling the boards. This matchup comes down to tempo control and execution.
Key Matchups:
- UTSA’s tempo and transition game vs. North Dakota’s half-court defense.
- North Dakota’s rebounding advantage and ability to limit second-chance points.
- Free-throw shooting, which could be decisive in a tight game.
Why This Matters:
UTSA’s pace gives them the edge, but North Dakota’s rebounding and ability to slow the game make this too close to call confidently.
Best Bet: North Dakota (+1.5). Their rebounding and home-court advantage provide underdog value.
4:00 PM: Georgia Tech at Northwestern (-6.5)
Game Context:
Northwestern’s defensive discipline and home-court edge make them the favorite here. Georgia Tech’s offense has been inconsistent, especially against strong defensive teams like Northwestern. The Wildcats will look to slow the pace, dominate the boards, and force Georgia Tech into tough shots.
Key Matchups:
- Northwestern’s defense vs. Georgia Tech’s half-court offense.
- Rebounding battles, where Northwestern has the clear edge.
- Georgia Tech’s perimeter shooting, which will need to be strong to stay close.
Why This Matters:
Northwestern’s defense and home-court consistency give them a significant edge. Georgia Tech’s offensive struggles on the road will likely prevent them from keeping this close.
Best Bet: Northwestern (-6.5). Their defensive edge and rebounding dominance should secure a cover.
4:00 PM: Stonehill at Boston College (-15.5)
Game Context:
Boston College’s superior talent and size make them clear favorites against Stonehill. However, Boston College has struggled with consistency, particularly on offense, which could allow Stonehill to keep this closer than the spread indicates.
Key Matchups:
- Boston College’s interior scoring vs. Stonehill’s undersized defense.
- Stonehill’s perimeter shooting vs. Boston College’s defensive rotations.
Why This Matters:
While Boston College will likely win comfortably, their inconsistent scoring makes a 15.5-point spread risky. Stonehill’s ability to hit shots late could keep them within the margin.
Best Bet: Stonehill (+15.5). Boston College’s inconsistency gives the underdog value.
6:00 PM: Stephen F. Austin at Oregon (-21.5)
Game Context:
Oregon’s size, athleticism, and home-court advantage make them heavy favorites. Stephen F. Austin’s high-pressure defense could disrupt Oregon early, but Oregon’s talent and depth should ultimately wear them down.
Key Matchups:
- Oregon’s rebounding and interior scoring vs. Stephen F. Austin’s smaller lineup.
- Turnovers: Stephen F. Austin’s defensive pressure vs. Oregon’s ball-handling.
Why This Matters:
While Stephen F. Austin’s defense could frustrate Oregon initially, Oregon’s talent and ability to dominate the boards make them likely to pull away late.
Best Bet: Oregon (-21.5). Their size and depth should lead to a comfortable win.
6:00 PM: Arkansas State at UAB (-3.5)
Game Context:
UAB’s balanced scoring and home-court edge give them the advantage here, but Arkansas State’s perimeter shooting and ability to control tempo will make this a close matchup. UAB will need to dominate the boards and take advantage of their scoring depth to pull away.
Key Matchups:
- UAB’s rebounding advantage vs. Arkansas State’s outside shooting.
- Arkansas State’s tempo control vs. UAB’s transition scoring.
Why This Matters:
UAB’s home-court edge and rebounding give them the upper hand. Arkansas State’s shooting will keep it close, but UAB should cover late.
Best Bet: UAB (-3.5). Their balance and ability to control the boards make them the better pick.
6:30 PM: San Francisco (-3.5) vs. Loyola-Chicago
Game Context:
San Francisco’s scoring efficiency and defensive intensity make them slight favorites against Loyola-Chicago. Loyola will look to slow the game down and rely on their half-court execution to keep this competitive.
Key Matchups:
- San Francisco’s transition offense vs. Loyola’s half-court defense.
- Loyola’s ability to generate second-chance points against San Francisco’s rebounding.
Why This Matters:
San Francisco’s offense gives them the edge, but Loyola’s defensive style and ability to grind out possessions make this a tough call.
Best Bet: San Francisco (-3.5). Their scoring depth and ability to force turnovers should secure the win.
7:00 PM: UC San Diego (-8.5) at Idaho
Game Context:
UC San Diego’s efficient offense and ability to control tempo make them road favorites against an Idaho team that struggles defensively. Idaho’s only chance to keep this close is to hit perimeter shots and limit turnovers.
Key Matchups:
- UC San Diego’s scoring efficiency vs. Idaho’s weak defense.
- Idaho’s rebounding vs. UC San Diego’s ability to dominate the boards.
Why This Matters:
UC San Diego’s offensive consistency and Idaho’s defensive struggles make this a mismatch. San Diego should control the game and win comfortably.
Best Bet: UC San Diego (-8.5). Their scoring efficiency and tempo control make them the better team.
Final Summary of Best Bets
- Hofstra (-1.5)
- South Alabama (-8.5)
- Northwestern (-6.5)
- Oregon (-21.5)
- UAB (-3.5)
- San Francisco (-3.5)
- UC San Diego (-8.5)
- Navy (+12.5)
- Nebraska Omaha (+35.5)
- North Dakota (+1.5)
- Stonehill (+15.5)
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff (+41.5)
