Quick Pick: Saint Mary’s -4.5
Saint Mary’s dominant defense (40.1% opponent FG, 29th nationally) and rebounding advantage (26.6 DRPG, 23rd nationally) give them the upper hand in this matchup. The Gaels play a slow, methodical style and capitalize on efficient scoring, particularly inside the arc. While their offense is not elite, their ability to control tempo and force opponents into tough shots makes them a difficult team to break down.
San Francisco is a capable offensive team (46.1% FG, 109th nationally) with strong three-point shooting (34.6%, 138th nationally). However, they struggle with consistency and rebounding (32.4 RPG, 177th nationally), which could be a major problem against Saint Mary’s disciplined interior defense and elite rebounding unit. Despite their 14-0 home record, the Dons will be challenged by Saint Mary’s ability to dictate pace and limit second-chance opportunities.
Saint Mary’s defensive dominance, rebounding edge, and ability to slow the game down should allow them to control the matchup and cover the spread.
Game Preview: San Francisco vs Saint Mary’s
Saint Mary’s Gaels (20-3, 11-11 ATS, 10-11-1 O/U, 6-0 Away, 12-1 Home)
San Francisco Dons (18-6, 10-12-1 ATS, 11-12 O/U, 2-4 Away, 14-0 Home)
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary’s | -4.5 (-118) | Over 131.5 (-110) | -225 |
| San Francisco | +4.5 (-102) | Under 131.5 (-110) | +185 |
Offensive Comparison
| Category | Saint Mary’s | Rank | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game (PPG) | 75.6 | (130th) | 76.0 | (135th) |
| FG% | 45.7% | (134th) | 46.1% | (109th) |
| 3P% | 34.1% | (167th) | 34.6% | (138th) |
| FT% | 69.1% | (276th) | 69.7% | (251st) |
| Total Rebounds | 37.5 | (5th) | 32.4 | (177th) |
| Offensive Rebounds | 13.1 | (1st) | 9.0 | (197th) |
| Assists Per Game | 16.7 | (13th) | 14.3 | (138th) |
| Turnovers Per Game | 10.0 | (52nd) | 12.3 | (223rd) |
Offensive Breakdown
Saint Mary’s Gaels
- Elite Rebounding: 37.5 RPG (5th nationally) gives them a major edge inside.
- Methodical Offense: Efficient but not high-scoring; relies on controlling tempo.
- Turnover Discipline: Just 10.0 TO per game (52nd nationally), limiting opponents’ transition opportunities.
- Inconsistent Perimeter Play: 34.1% 3P shooting (167th) is a concern.
San Francisco Dons
- Solid Offense: 46.1% FG (109th nationally) but lacks elite efficiency.
- Good from Three: 34.6% 3P (138th nationally), but relies on volume.
- Turnover Issues: 12.3 TO per game (223rd nationally) could be costly.
- Weak on the Glass: 32.4 RPG (177th), struggles to secure second chances.
Defensive Comparison
| Category | Saint Mary’s | Rank | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 60.8 | (7th) | 67.0 | (55th) |
| Opponent FG% | 40.1% | (29th) | 42.5% | (116th) |
| Opponent 3P% | 31.4% | (77th) | 29.4% | (20th) |
| Defensive Rebounds | 26.6 | (23rd) | 29.5 | (89th) |
| Steals Per Game | 5.5 | (193rd) | 7.1 | (238th) |
| Blocks Per Game | 2.7 | (80th) | 3.8 | (31st) |
Defensive Breakdown
Saint Mary’s Gaels
- Elite Defense: Only allows 60.8 PPG (7th nationally), making them one of the toughest teams to score against.
- Stifling Interior Presence: Opponents shoot just 40.1% from the field (29th nationally).
- Great Defensive Rebounding: 26.6 DRPG (23rd), preventing second chances.
- Struggles Generating Turnovers: Just 5.5 SPG (193rd nationally).
San Francisco Dons
- Decent Defense: Opponent FG% at 42.5% (116th), not elite but serviceable.
- Strong Perimeter Defense: 29.4% opponent 3P% (20th nationally).
- Good Shot-Blocking: 3.8 BPG (31st nationally), which could be useful inside.
- Weak on the Defensive Glass: 29.5 DRPG (89th), could struggle against Saint Mary’s rebounding dominance.
Why Saint Mary’s Can Cover the Spread
- Defensive Dominance
- The Gaels hold opponents to 60.8 PPG (7th), while San Francisco allows 67.0 PPG (55th).
- Why It Matters: The Dons may struggle to generate enough offense.
- Rebounding Edge
- Saint Mary’s is one of the best rebounding teams in the country (37.5 RPG, 5th nationally).
- Why It Matters: They can control possession and limit San Francisco’s second chances.
- Turnover Discipline
- Saint Mary’s commits just 10.0 TO per game (52nd), compared to San Francisco’s 12.3 TO (223rd).
- Why It Matters: The Gaels should be able to control the tempo and avoid costly mistakes.
- Proven Road Success
- Saint Mary’s is undefeated on the road (6-0), while San Francisco has struggled against top-tier teams.
- Why It Matters: The Gaels have been battle-tested away from home.
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Score: Saint Mary’s 68, San Francisco 61
Best Bet: Saint Mary’s -4.5
Saint Mary’s elite defense and rebounding should allow them to control the game and grind out a cover. Expect the Gaels to slow the tempo, limit San Francisco’s scoring opportunities, and win comfortably on the road.
