Quick Pick: Ohio State -2.5
Ohio State’s efficient three-point defense (28.9%, 12th nationally) and ability to generate turnovers (6.4 SPG, 1st nationally) provide a significant defensive edge against Maryland’s balanced offensive attack. The Buckeyes shoot 37.7% from three (31st nationally) and are efficient overall (47.5% FG, 55th), making them a tough matchup for Maryland’s solid, but not elite, perimeter defense.
Maryland has an efficient offense (48.4% FG, 32nd nationally), but they struggle on the boards (34.3 RPG, 77th) compared to Ohio State’s defensive rebounding ability. Additionally, Maryland’s road struggles (2-4 away) contrast with Ohio State’s respectable home performance (8-4).
With Ohio State’s ability to defend the three and create turnovers, they should control the tempo and capitalize on their home-court advantage.
Game Preview: Ohio State vs. Maryland
Ohio State Buckeyes (13-9, 13-9 ATS, 10-12 O/U, 3-4 Away, 8-4 Home)
Maryland Terrapins (17-5, 11-11 ATS, 13-8-1 O/U, 2-4 Away, 13-1 Home)
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | +2.5 (-105) | o146.5 (-115) | +125 |
| Ohio State | -2.5 (-115) | u146.5 (-105) | -155 |
Offensive Comparison
| Category | Ohio State | Rank | Maryland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game (PPG) | 80.0 | 52nd | 83.0 | 20th |
| FG% | 47.5% | 55th | 48.4% | 32nd |
| 3P% | 37.7% | 31st | 37.2% | 44th |
| FT% | 74.1% | 104th | 74.8% | 82nd |
| Total Rebounds | 32.1 | 197th | 34.3 | 77th |
| Offensive Rebounds | 8.0 | 266th | 9.5 | 138th |
| Assists Per Game | 13.5 | 212th | 15.4 | 80th |
| Turnovers Per Game | 11.1 | 99th | 10.3 | 35th |
Offensive Breakdown
Ohio State Buckeyes
- Strong Three-Point Shooting: 37.7% 3P (31st nationally) is a major edge over Maryland.
- Solid Efficiency: 47.5% FG (55th) helps them keep up with Maryland’s attack.
- Turnover Efficiency: Only 11.1 TO per game (99th), meaning they take care of the ball.
- Lack of Offensive Rebounding: 8.0 ORPG (266th) could limit second-chance opportunities.
Maryland Terrapins
- Elite Scoring: 83.0 PPG (20th nationally) shows their ability to put up points.
- Balanced Offense: 48.4% FG (32nd) and 37.2% 3P (44th) make them tough to defend.
- Ball Movement is Key: 15.4 APG (80th nationally) helps create high-quality looks.
- Rebounding Disadvantage: 34.3 RPG (77th), but they are stronger than Ohio State in this category.
Defensive Comparison
| Category | Ohio State | Rank | Maryland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 71.4 | 179th | 65.5 | 35th |
| Opponent FG% | 40.7% | 45th | 41.5% | 80th |
| Opponent 3P% | 28.9% | 12th | 31.5% | 85th |
| Defensive Rebounds | 30.2 | 124th | 29.4 | 83rd |
| Steals Per Game | 6.4 | 1st | 4.9 | 84th |
| Blocks Per Game | 3.8 | 238th | 2.2 | 51st |
Defensive Breakdown
Ohio State Buckeyes
- Elite Perimeter Defense: 28.9% opponent 3P% (12th nationally) could limit Maryland’s three-point attack.
- Turnover Pressure: 6.4 SPG (1st nationally) forces mistakes and disrupts opposing offenses.
- Defensive Rebounding Concerns: 30.2 DRPG (124th), which could give Maryland second-chance looks.
- Blocks are Limited: 3.8 BPG (238th), so interior defense isn’t dominant.
Maryland Terrapins
- Solid Overall Defense: 41.5% opponent FG% (80th nationally), meaning they force tough shots.
- Decent Three-Point Defense: 31.5% opponent 3P% (85th nationally), but not as strong as Ohio State’s.
- Rebounding Struggles: 29.4 DRPG (83rd), allowing teams to crash the boards.
- Steals & Blocks Are Mediocre: 4.9 SPG (84th) and 2.2 BPG (51st) won’t generate extra possessions.
Why Ohio State Can Cover the Spread
- Three-Point Defense Wins Games
- Ohio State allows just 28.9% from deep (12th nationally), a crucial advantage over Maryland’s 37.2% shooting.
- Why It Matters: Maryland relies on three-pointers, but Ohio State has the ability to neutralize that.
- Turnover Battle Favors Ohio State
- Ohio State forces 6.4 steals per game (1st nationally), while Maryland struggles in that area.
- Why It Matters: Extra possessions could be the difference in a close game.
- Home Court Advantage
- Ohio State is 8-4 at home, while Maryland is just 2-4 on the road.
- Why It Matters: Maryland has struggled away from home, which could be a key factor.
Home/Away Performance
| Category | Ohio State | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Home Record | 8-4 SU | 13-1 SU |
| Away Record | 3-4 SU | 2-4 SU |
| ATS Record | 13-9 | 11-11 |
| O/U Record | 10-12 | 13-8-1 |
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Score: Ohio State 74, Maryland 69
Best Bet: Ohio State -2.5
Ohio State’s elite perimeter defense, ability to force turnovers, and home-court advantage should be enough to control this game. Maryland’s road struggles and rebounding issues could lead to limited scoring opportunities, making the Buckeyes the better pick.
- Confidence Level: Moderate
- Total Lean: Under 146.5 (Ohio State’s defense could slow down Maryland’s offense)
- Key Trends:
- Ohio State is 8-4 at home this season.
- Maryland is just 2-4 on the road this season.
- Ohio State has the No. 1 steal rate in the country, which could disrupt Maryland’s offense.
