Quick Pick: Michigan -8.5
Michigan’s highly efficient offense (49.8% FG, 8th nationally) and strong interior defense (40.4% opponent FG, 38th nationally) give them a decisive edge in this matchup. The Wolverines excel at ball movement (17.9 APG, 9th nationally) and three-point shooting (37.0%, 56th nationally), making them a tough team to slow down. They also dominate the defensive glass (26.2 DRPG, 6th nationally), limiting opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Oregon’s offensive efficiency is mediocre (46.0% FG, 118th nationally), and they struggle from three (33.1%, 235th nationally). Their rebounding issues (31.4 RPG, 238th nationally) could be a major problem against Michigan’s elite rebounding unit. While Oregon is solid from the free-throw line (75.5%, 54th nationally), their defensive struggles (71.0 opponent PPG, 164th nationally) make it difficult to keep up with Michigan’s firepower.
Michigan’s 10-0 home record and Oregon’s struggles on the boards and from deep suggest the Wolverines can control the game and cover the spread.
Game Preview: Michigan vs. Oregon
Michigan Wolverines (16-5, 11-10 ATS, 12-9 O/U, 4-2 Away, 10-0 Home)
Oregon Ducks (16-6, 9-13 ATS, 12-10 O/U, 4-2 Away, 8-4 Home)
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | -8.5 | Under 153.5 | -375 |
| Oregon | +8.5 | Over 153.5 | +290 |
Offensive Comparison
| Category | Michigan | Rank | Oregon | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game (PPG) | 82.3 | (25th) | 76.4 | (122nd) |
| FG% | 49.8% | (8th) | 46.0% | (118th) |
| 3P% | 37.0% | (56th) | 33.1% | (235th) |
| FT% | 72.2% | (177th) | 75.5% | (54th) |
| Total Rebounds | 35.1 | (57th) | 31.4 | (238th) |
| Offensive Rebounds | 8.9 | (204th) | 7.9 | (281st) |
| Assists Per Game | 17.9 | (9th) | 14.8 | (112th) |
| Turnovers Per Game | 14.8 | (346th) | 11.6 | (146th) |
Offensive Breakdown
Michigan Wolverines
- Elite Efficiency: 49.8% FG (8th nationally) is a significant advantage over Oregon’s 46.0% (118th).
- High-Scoring Attack: 82.3 PPG (25th nationally), fueled by excellent ball movement.
- Strong Perimeter Play: 37.0% 3P (56th nationally), significantly better than Oregon’s 33.1% (235th).
- Turnover Issue: 14.8 TO per game (346th), a major concern, but Oregon does not pressure ball handlers much.
- Rebounding Edge: Michigan averages 35.1 RPG (57th) compared to Oregon’s 31.4 RPG (238th).
Oregon Ducks
- Inconsistent Scoring: 76.4 PPG (122nd nationally), lacking the efficiency of Michigan.
- Struggles from Three: 33.1% 3P (235th), significantly worse than Michigan.
- Ball Movement is Solid: 14.8 APG (112th nationally), but turnovers are a concern (11.6 TO per game, 146th).
- Weak Rebounding: 31.4 RPG (238th) and only 7.9 offensive rebounds per game (281st) – struggles to create second chances.
Defensive Comparison
| Category | Michigan | Rank | Oregon | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 70.3 | (142nd) | 71.0 | (164th) |
| Opponent FG% | 40.4% | (38th) | 42.8% | (136th) |
| Opponent 3P% | 30.6% | (53rd) | 31.3% | (72nd) |
| Defensive Rebounds | 26.2 | (6th) | 21.2 | (161st) |
| Steals Per Game | 6.1 | (307th) | 6.4 | (167th) |
| Blocks Per Game | 4.3 | (15th) | 2.9 | (161st) |
Defensive Breakdown
Michigan Wolverines
- Tough Interior Defense: Opponents shoot just 40.4% FG (38th nationally).
- Elite Defensive Rebounding: 26.2 DRPG (6th nationally) – limits Oregon’s second chances.
- Strong Shot Blocking: 4.3 BPG (15th nationally), compared to Oregon’s 2.9 BPG (161st).
- Turnover Struggles: Only 6.1 SPG (307th), meaning they don’t generate many takeaways.
Oregon Ducks
- Mediocre Defense: Opponent FG% at 42.8% (136th nationally).
- Perimeter Defense is Decent: 31.3% opponent 3P% (72nd).
- Struggles on the Boards: Only 21.2 DRPG (161st) – a major problem against Michigan.
Why Michigan Can Cover the Spread
1. Offensive Efficiency
- Michigan’s offense is far superior (49.8% FG, 8th) compared to Oregon’s (46.0%, 118th).
- Why It Matters: Oregon won’t be able to keep up if Michigan shoots at a high percentage.
2. Perimeter Advantage
- Michigan shoots 37.0% from deep (56th), while Oregon is at 33.1% (235th).
- Why It Matters: Michigan’s three-point shooting could stretch Oregon’s defense.
3. Rebounding Domination
- Michigan averages 35.1 RPG (57th) vs. Oregon’s 31.4 RPG (238th).
- Why It Matters: Oregon won’t get many second-chance points.
4. Home Court Edge
- Michigan is 10-0 at home, while Oregon is 4-2 on the road.
- Why It Matters: Oregon has yet to face a team this dominant on the road.
Home/Away Performance
| Category | Michigan | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Home Record | 10-0 SU | 8-4 SU |
| Away Record | 4-2 SU | 4-2 SU |
| ATS Record | 11-10 | 9-13 |
| O/U Record | 12-9 | 12-10 |
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Score: Michigan 79, Oregon 68
Best Bet: Michigan -8.5
Michigan’s offensive efficiency, defensive rebounding, and home-court dominance make them the clear favorite. Expect the Wolverines to control the tempo, dominate the glass, and cover the spread comfortably.
