Quick Pick: Northern Iowa -4.5
Northern Iowa’s offensive efficiency and Missouri State’s defensive struggles set up a strong spot for the Panthers to cover. UNI ranks 5th in FG% (49.8%), 46th in 3P% (37.5%), and takes smart, high-quality shots. Missouri State’s defense is porous, allowing 46.8% FG (332nd nationally) and struggling to defend the three (35.3%, 293rd).
Missouri State’s offense is inconsistent, shooting 44.8% FG (181st) and struggling at the free-throw line (65.7%, 344th nationally). With Northern Iowa’s superior shot-making, defensive rebounding advantage, and Missouri State’s struggles against efficient offenses, the Panthers should control this game and cover the spread.
Game Preview: Missouri State vs Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa Panthers (14-9, 14-8-0 ATS, 8-13-1 O/U, 3-4 Away, 11-2 Home)
Missouri State Bears (8-15, 12-9-0 ATS, 11-10-0 O/U, 1-8 Away, 6-5 Home)
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | -4.5 | Over 131.5 | -200 |
| Missouri State | +4.5 | Under 131.5 | +165 |
Offensive Comparison
| Category | Northern Iowa | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 75.0 (177th) | 69.8 (287th) |
| FG% | 49.8% (5th) | 44.8% (181st) |
| 3P% | 37.5% (46th) | 37.0% (53rd) |
| FT% | 71.0% (207th) | 65.7% (344th) |
| Total Rebounds | 29.7 (316th) | 29.6 (323rd) |
| Offensive Rebounds | 6.5 (346th) | 9.0 (193rd) |
| Assists Per Game | 14.2 (170th) | 12.2 (297th) |
| Turnovers Per Game | 10.4 (56th) | 13.6 (311th) |
Offensive Breakdown
Northern Iowa Panthers
- Highly Efficient Offense: UNI’s 49.8% FG ranks 5th nationally, a major edge over Missouri State’s weaker defense.
- Elite Three-Point Shooting: 37.5% from deep (46th nationally) makes them a strong perimeter team.
- Low Turnovers: They average just 10.4 turnovers per game (56th nationally), limiting opponents’ transition opportunities.
- Weakness: Poor offensive rebounding (6.5 ORPG, 346th), meaning they rely on first-shot efficiency.
Missouri State Bears
- Mediocre Offense: 44.8% FG (181st) and subpar free-throw shooting (65.7%, 344th), a major concern in close games.
- Three-Point Shooting Strength: 37.0% from deep (53rd nationally) is a plus, but they don’t attempt many (20.4 per game, 285th).
- Turnover-Prone: They commit 13.6 turnovers per game (311th nationally), giving opponents extra possessions.
Defensive Comparison
| Category | Northern Iowa | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 67.7 (65th) | 71.8 (197th) |
| Opponent FG% | 44.2% (219th) | 46.8% (332nd) |
| Opponent 3P% | 35.1% (281st) | 35.3% (293rd) |
| Defensive Rebounds | 23.2 (88th) | 20.5 (47th) |
| Steals Per Game | 6.3 (198th) | 7.5 (174th) |
| Blocks Per Game | 3.0 (19th) | 2.2 (326th) |
Defensive Breakdown
Northern Iowa Panthers
- Average Defense: UNI allows 44.2% FG (219th nationally) but is strong at limiting second-chance points (23.2 DRPG, 88th nationally).
- Rim Protection: 3.0 blocks per game (19th nationally) gives them a clear shot-blocking advantage over Missouri State.
- Three-Point Defense Weakness: Allow 35.1% opponent 3P (281st nationally), which could be exploited if Missouri State shoots well from deep.
Missouri State Bears
- Weak Overall Defense: 46.8% opponent FG (332nd nationally) is a major liability against an efficient UNI offense.
- Struggles to Defend the Perimeter: Opponents hit 35.3% of threes (293rd nationally), which plays into UNI’s strength.
- Poor Rim Protection: Just 2.2 blocks per game (326th nationally), allowing easy scoring inside.
Why Northern Iowa Can Cover the Spread
1. Significant Offensive Edge
- UNI ranks 5th in FG% (49.8%), compared to Missouri State’s 332nd-ranked FG% defense (46.8%).
- Why It Matters: Missouri State’s defense struggles against efficient teams, and UNI fits that profile.
2. Missouri State’s Turnover Problems
- Missouri State commits 13.6 turnovers per game (311th nationally), while UNI only gives up 10.4 per game (56th).
- Why It Matters: UNI will likely have more possessions and control the tempo.
3. Free Throw Advantage
- UNI shoots 71.0% FT (207th), while Missouri State is at 65.7% (344th).
- Why It Matters: Close games often come down to free-throw shooting, favoring UNI.
Home/Away Performance
| Category | Northern Iowa | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Home Record | 11-2 SU | 6-5 SU |
| Away Record | 3-4 SU | 1-8 SU |
| ATS Record | 14-8-0 | 12-9-0 |
| O/U Record | 8-13-1 | 11-10-0 |
- Missouri State is 1-8 on the road, but only 6-5 at home.
- Northern Iowa is 11-2 at home but just 3-4 on the road, meaning their edge isn’t as strong in away games.
- ATS Trends: Northern Iowa has been the more profitable team (14-8 ATS).
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Score: Northern Iowa 74, Missouri State 66
Best Bet: Northern Iowa -4.5
Lean: Over 131.5
Northern Iowa’s elite offensive efficiency and Missouri State’s defensive struggles create a strong edge for the Panthers. The Bears’ turnover issues and weak rim protection will make it difficult for them to stay within the number. While Missouri State is at home, UNI’s shooting edge and defensive rebounding advantage should allow them to control the game and cover the spread.
Best Bet: Northern Iowa -4.5
Lean: Over 131.5
