Quick Pick: Creighton -3.5 (-110)
Creighton’s efficient offense and disciplined defense give them the edge in this matchup. The Bluejays rank 44th in FG% (47.9%) and move the ball exceptionally well (17.0 APG, 19th nationally), creating high-quality scoring opportunities. Defensively, they hold opponents to 40.5% shooting (41st nationally) and limit three-point efficiency (30.2%, 56th nationally).
Providence’s offensive struggles (44.0% FG, 230th nationally) and poor free-throw shooting (70.3%, 235th nationally) could make it difficult to keep pace. While Providence is 9-2 at home, Creighton’s elite offensive execution, defensive efficiency, and superior ball movement should allow them to control the game and cover the spread.
Game Preview: Creighton vs. Providence
Creighton Bluejays (16-6, 13-7-2 ATS, 9-13 O/U, 4-3 Away, 11-1 Home)
Providence Friars (11-11, 11-11 ATS, 11-10-1 O/U, 2-5 Away, 9-2 Home)
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Creighton | -3.5 (-110) | Over 143.5 (-110) | -165 |
| Providence | +3.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110) | +135 |
Offensive Comparison
| Category | Creighton | Providence |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 75.4 (143rd) | 71.6 (255th) |
| FG% | 47.9% (44th) | 44.0% (230th) |
| 3P% | 34.9% (105th) | 35.0% (123rd) |
| FT% | 74.9% (55th) | 70.3% (235th) |
| Total Rebounds | 34.7 (75th) | 34.7 (70th) |
| Offensive Rebounds | 7.0 (325th) | 9.9 (108th) |
| Assists Per Game | 17.0 (19th) | 12.2 (294th) |
| Turnovers Per Game | 13.1 (265th) | 12.8 (258th) |
Offensive Breakdown
Creighton Bluejays
- Elite Efficiency: 47.9% FG (44th nationally), significantly better than Providence’s 44.0% (230th).
- Ball Movement: 17.0 APG (19th nationally), a major strength that allows them to create open looks.
- Perimeter Shooting: 34.9% 3P (105th), slightly better than Providence, but not a huge edge.
- Turnover Control: 13.1 TO per game (265th), a bit high but Providence doesn’t pressure ball handlers well.
- Weakness: Offensive rebounding (7.0 OREB, 325th nationally) – They don’t generate many second-chance opportunities.
Providence Friars
- Inefficient Offense: 44.0% FG (230th), well below Creighton’s shooting numbers.
- Limited Ball Movement: 12.2 APG (294th) – Struggles to create open looks.
- Rebounding Edge: 9.9 OREB (108th nationally) – This is one area they can exploit.
- Free Throw Woes: 70.3% FT (235th nationally) – Poor in clutch situations.
Defensive Comparison
| Category | Creighton | Providence |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 68.3 (97th) | 69.3 (112th) |
| Opponent FG% | 40.5% (41st) | 41.5% (81st) |
| Opponent 3P% | 30.2% (56th) | 30.5% (49th) |
| Defensive Rebounds | 30.6 (163rd) | 29.2 (79th) |
| Steals Per Game | 8.5 (361st) | 4.9 (265th) |
| Blocks Per Game | 2.9 (28th) | 3.8 (118th) |
Defensive Breakdown
Creighton Bluejays
- Elite Defense: 40.5% opponent FG% (41st nationally), making them one of the toughest defenses in the country.
- Three-Point Defense: 30.2% opponent 3P% (56th nationally) – They limit perimeter efficiency well.
- Defensive Rebounding: 30.6 DRPG (163rd) – Strong but not elite.
- Weakness: Forces very few turnovers (361st in steals, 8.5 per game).
Providence Friars
- Solid Defense: 41.5% opponent FG% (81st nationally), slightly worse than Creighton’s but still strong.
- Good Three-Point Defense: 30.5% opponent 3P% (49th nationally) – Can limit Creighton’s perimeter attack.
- Decent Rim Protection: 3.8 BPG (118th nationally), better than Creighton’s 2.9 BPG.
- Weakness: Low steal rate (4.9 SPG, 265th) – Won’t disrupt Creighton’s offense much.
Why Creighton Can Cover the Spread
1. Offensive Efficiency
- Creighton ranks 44th in FG% (47.9%), while Providence is just 230th (44.0%).
- Why It Matters: Creighton is far more efficient, and Providence doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up.
2. Turnover Battle
- Creighton commits 13.1 turnovers per game (265th nationally) but Providence is weak at forcing mistakes (265th in steals).
- Why It Matters: Providence won’t be able to disrupt Creighton’s offense.
3. Superior Shooting from the Line
- Creighton shoots 74.9% from the free-throw line (55th nationally), while Providence is at 70.3% (235th).
- Why It Matters: Late-game free throws could be the difference in covering the spread.
Home/Away Performance
| Category | Creighton | Providence |
|---|---|---|
| Home Record | 11-1 SU | 9-2 SU |
| Away Record | 4-3 SU | 2-5 SU |
| ATS Record | 13-7-2 | 11-11 |
| O/U Record | 9-13 | 11-10-1 |
- Creighton is better on the road (4-3 SU) than Providence is (2-5 SU).
- Creighton has covered more often (13-7-2 ATS).
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Score: Creighton 75, Providence 69
Best Bet: Creighton -3.5 (-110)
Lean: Under 143.5 (-110)
Creighton’s offensive efficiency, defensive discipline, and superior ball movement should allow them to control the game and cover the spread. Expect the Bluejays to pull away late and secure a road win.
