Quick Pick: Texas Tech -8.5 (-105)
Baylor is facing major backcourt concerns, with two key starters—VJ Edgecombe (14.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.2 APG) and Jeremy Roach (11.9 PPG, 3.5 APG)—both leaning out. Edgecombe is Baylor’s second-leading scorer, while Roach has been a key playmaker and perimeter defender. Losing both guards significantly weakens Baylor’s offensive flow and defensive pressure against a high-powered Texas Tech offense.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is fully healthy and thrives at home (11-2 SU, 12-9 ATS overall). Their offensive efficiency (81.4 PPG, 37th nationally, 48.8% FG, 23rd) and three-point shooting (38.2% 3P, 21st nationally) should exploit Baylor’s defensive weaknesses, especially given their lack of perimeter depth. Without Edgecombe and Roach, Baylor will likely struggle to keep up in a tough road environment. Texas Tech should control the pace and cover the spread.
Game Preview: Texas Tech vs Baylor
Baylor Bears (14-7, 8-11-1 ATS, 12-8 O/U, 2-5 Away, 10-1 Home)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (17-4, 12-9-0 ATS, 12-8-1 O/U, 5-0 Away, 11-2 Home)
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | +8.5 (-115) | Over 142.5 (-115) | +300 |
| Texas Tech | -8.5 (-105) | Under 142.5 (-105) | -375 |
Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Scoring Efficiency: 81.4 PPG (37th), 48.8% FG (23rd), 38.2% 3P (21st) – Elite offensive efficiency.
- Ball Movement & Control: 16.7 APG (36th), 1.5 AST/TO (28th), 10.9 TO per game (73rd) – Moves the ball well, limits mistakes.
- Defensive Strengths: Opponent PPG (65.4, 36th), Opponent FG% (41.4%, 76th) – Can contain Baylor’s short-handed offense.
- Rebounding Edge: 33.0 RPG (144th), 23.2 DREB (16th) – Strong defensive rebounding should limit Baylor’s second-chance points.
Baylor Bears (Missing Edgecombe & Roach)
- Scoring Efficiency: 80.4 PPG (46th), 46.1% FG (110th), 36.8% 3P (58th) – Offensive firepower takes a hit without two key guards.
- Rebounding: 34.4 RPG (79th), 12.0 OREB (18th) – Strong offensive rebounding, but Texas Tech’s defensive glass could neutralize them.
- Defensive Concerns: Opponent FG% (43.9%, 208th), Opponent 3P% (35.8%, 318th) – Will struggle to stop Texas Tech’s perimeter shooting.
- Depth Issues: Missing two primary ball handlers will force role players into expanded offensive roles against a strong defense.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offensive Comparison
| Metric | Baylor | Rank | Texas Tech | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 80.4 | 46th | 81.4 | 37th |
| FG% | 46.1% | 110th | 48.8% | 23rd |
| 3P% | 36.8% | 58th | 38.2% | 21st |
| FT% | 73.2% | 132nd | 76.0% | 43rd |
| Total Rebounds | 34.4 | 79th | 33.0 | 144th |
| Offensive Rebounds | 12.0 | 18th | 9.8 | 121st |
Defensive Comparison
| Metric | Baylor | Rank | Texas Tech | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 69.1 | 111th | 65.4 | 36th |
| Opponent FG% | 43.9% | 208th | 41.4% | 76th |
| Opponent 3P% | 35.8% | 318th | 31.6% | 94th |
| Defensive Rebounds | 29.6 | 94th | 28.0 | 25th |
| Steals Per Game | 6.0 | 71st | 6.5 | 171st |
| Blocks Per Game | 4.6 | 178th | 2.4 | 264th |
Why Texas Tech Can Cover the Spread (-8.5)
Baylor’s Injuries Severely Impact Offense & Perimeter Defense
- Edgecombe (14.9 PPG) and Roach (11.9 PPG) are both GTD leaning out.
- That’s two of Baylor’s top four scorers, primary ball handlers, and playmakers missing.
- Why It Matters: Baylor will be forced to rely on unproven depth in a difficult road environment, likely leading to inefficient offensive possessions.
Texas Tech’s Elite Shooting vs. Baylor’s Poor Perimeter Defense
- Texas Tech ranks 21st in 3P% (38.2%), while Baylor ranks 318th in opponent 3P% (35.8%).
- Why It Matters: Even without injuries, Baylor was already a poor perimeter defensive team. Now, Texas Tech’s shooters should have even more clean looks.
Texas Tech’s Home-Court Dominance & Baylor’s Road Struggles
- Texas Tech is 11-2 at home and 5-0 SU on the road, proving they’re battle-tested.
- Baylor is just 2-5 SU on the road and now missing two starters.
- Why It Matters: Road struggles combined with missing starters make it unlikely Baylor can compete for 40 minutes.
Texas Tech’s Defense Should Disrupt Baylor’s Makeshift Lineup
- Texas Tech forces teams into tough shots (41.4% opponent FG, 76th nationally) and limits possessions.
- Baylor’s backup guards could struggle to create efficient looks under defensive pressure.
- Why It Matters: Baylor already turns the ball over at a moderate rate (11.2 TO per game, 106th). A weakened backcourt could lead to costly mistakes.
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score:
Texas Tech 82, Baylor 67
Spread Pick:
- Texas Tech’s home-court dominance, offensive efficiency, and Baylor’s injuries make this a great spot for the Red Raiders.
- Baylor’s short-handed backcourt won’t be able to handle Texas Tech’s pressure or keep pace offensively.
- Pick: Texas Tech -8.5 (-105)
Confidence Level:
High – The injuries to Baylor’s backcourt make this a strong bet for Texas Tech to cover.
Total (O/U) Lean:
Lean: Over 142.5 (-115)
- Texas Tech should push the pace, and Baylor’s defense will struggle to contain them.
Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Texas Tech -8.5 (-105)
Lean: Over 142.5 (-115)
Predicted Score: Texas Tech 82, Baylor 67
Watch the injury report closer to game time. Without Edgecombe and Roach, Baylor’s offense and perimeter defense will take a huge hit. Texas Tech healthy and dominant at home, should control the game and win by double digits comfortably.
