Quick Pick: St. John’s -2.5 (-110)
St. John’s holds a strong advantage in rebounding, defensive efficiency, and home-court dominance. Marquette, while excellent at forcing turnovers (16.0 per game, 12th nationally), struggles on the boards (30.4 RPG, 296th). Meanwhile, St. John’s ranks 23rd in total rebounds and is undefeated at home (14-0 SU). Marquette’s perimeter shooting (32.8% 3P, 242nd) gives them a slight edge over St. John’s (30.0% 3P, 338th), but St. John’s ability to control possessions and limit second-chance points makes them the better play.
Game Preview: St. John’s vs. Marquette
St. John’s Red Storm (19-3, 13-8-1 ATS, 10-11-1 O/U, 4-1 Away, 14-0 Home)
Marquette Golden Eagles (18-4, 11-11 ATS, 10-12 O/U, 6-2 Away, 11-2 Home)
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | +2.5 (-110) | Over 148.5 (-110) | +125 |
| St. John’s | -2.5 (-110) | Under 148.5 (-110) | -150 |
Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
St. John’s Red Storm
- Scoring Efficiency: 79.3 PPG (70th), 45.3% FG (156th), 30.0% 3P (338th) – Struggles from beyond the arc.
- Rebounding Edge: 36.5 RPG (23rd) – A major strength against Marquette’s weak rebounding.
- Ball Movement: 15.6 APG (74th) – Moves the ball well, but relies on inside scoring.
- Turnovers: 11.4 TO per game (119th) – Decent ball control but could struggle vs. Marquette’s pressure.
- Weakness: Poor three-point shooting (30.0%, 338th) – Limits their ability to stretch defenses.
Marquette Golden Eagles
- Scoring Efficiency: 78.7 PPG (78th), 44.9% FG (177th), 32.8% 3P (242nd) – Slight shooting advantage.
- Turnover Pressure: Forces 16.0 TO per game (12th) – A key strength.
- Steals & Fast Breaks: 10.2 SPG (27th) – Can create transition opportunities.
- Home/Away Split: 11-2 SU at home, 6-2 SU away – Solid on the road but faces an undefeated home team.
- Weakness: Rebounding (30.4 RPG, 296th) – Could struggle against St. John’s on the boards.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offensive Comparison
| Metric | St. John’s | Rank | Marquette | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 79.3 | 70th | 78.7 | 78th |
| FG% | 45.3% | 156th | 44.9% | 177th |
| 3P% | 30.0% | 338th | 32.8% | 242nd |
| FT% | 69.7% | 254th | 73.1% | 140th |
| Total Rebounds | 36.5 | 23rd | 30.4 | 296th |
| Offensive Rebounds | 11.7 | 29th | 9.4 | 160th |
Defensive Comparison
| Metric | St. John’s | Rank | Marquette | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 65.2 | 31st | 67.4 | 60th |
| Opponent FG% | 39.4% | 16th | 44.2% | 228th |
| Opponent 3P% | 33.7% | 209th | 31.7% | 97th |
| Defensive Rebounds | 24.8 | 114th | 23.7 | 331st |
| Steals Per Game | 9.5 | 191st | 10.2 | 27th |
| Blocks Per Game | 5.8 | 251st | 2.8 | 104th |
Why St. John’s Can Cover the Spread
Rebounding Edge
- St. John’s averages 36.5 rebounds per game (23rd nationally).
- Marquette ranks 296th in rebounding.
- Why It Matters: St. John’s should control the glass, limiting Marquette’s extra possessions.
Elite Home Record
- St. John’s is 14-0 at home this season.
- Marquette is 6-2 away, but St. John’s has played dominant basketball at home.
- Why It Matters: St. John’s thrives in their building and plays at a higher level.
Defensive Efficiency
- St. John’s holds opponents to 39.4% shooting (16th nationally).
- Marquette’s offense ranks 177th in FG% (44.9%).
- Why It Matters: Marquette will struggle to get clean looks against an elite defensive unit.
Home/Away Performance
| Category | St. John’s | Marquette |
|---|---|---|
| Home Record | 14-0 SU | 11-2 SU |
| Away Record | 4-1 SU | 6-2 SU |
| ATS Record | 13-8-1 | 11-11 |
| O/U Record | 10-11-1 | 10-12 |
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score:
St. John’s 77, Marquette 71
Spread Pick:
- St. John’s rebounding, defense, and home-court advantage make them the stronger team in this matchup.
- Marquette’s strength in forcing turnovers is a factor, but St. John’s should win the rebounding battle and control possessions.
- Pick: St. John’s -2.5 (-110)
Confidence Level:
Moderate to High – St. John’s undefeated home record and rebounding edge make them the more reliable side.
Total (O/U) Lean:
- Lean: Under 148.5 (-110) – Both teams play solid defense, and St. John’s could slow the pace down.
Final Betting Verdict
- Best Bet: St. John’s -2.5 (-110)
- Lean: Under 148.5 (-110)
- Predicted Score: St. John’s 77, Marquette 71
St. John’s undefeated home record, rebounding advantage, and strong defensive play give them a major edge in this game. Marquette’s ability to force turnovers may keep the game competitive, but St. John’s should control the tempo and dominate inside. Expect the Red Storm to pull away late and remain unbeaten at home.
