Quick Pick: Kansas -2
Kansas’ defensive dominance (38.5% Opp FG, 11th) and home-court advantage (10-2) give them a strong edge against Iowa State. The Jayhawks’ ability to limit perimeter scoring (29.6% Opp 3P, 25th) matches up well against an Iowa State team that shoots efficiently but lacks high volume from deep (35.1% 3P, 115th). Kansas also limits turnovers (11.1 TO per game, 97th), while Iowa State thrives on defensive pressure (7.0 SPG, 12th).
Iowa State has won three of the last four meetings, but all three victories came at home. Kansas holds a 7-3 record in the last 10 matchups, making Allen Fieldhouse a tough place for the Cyclones to steal a win. Expect Kansas to control the game with its defense and extend its home dominance in this series.
Game Preview: Kansas vs. Iowa State
Kansas Jayhawks (15-6, 10-11 ATS, 5-16 O/U, 3-4 Away, 10-2 Home)
Iowa State Cyclones (17-4, 12-9 ATS, 10-11 O/U, 4-2 Away, 11-1 Home)
Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
Kansas Jayhawks
- Shooting Efficiency: 47.7% FG (48th), 33.9% 3P (180th), 72.6% FT (160th) – Strong inside scoring, but inconsistent from deep.
- Rebounding Issues: 35.7 RPG (44th), 9.2 ORPG (174th) – Not dominant on the offensive glass.
- Ball Movement: 17.9 APG (13th), 1.6 AST/TO (15th) – Moves the ball well and protects possessions.
- Turnovers: 11.1 TO per game (97th) – Takes care of the basketball.
- Defensive Strengths: 38.5% Opp FG (11th), 29.6% Opp 3P (25th) – One of the best defensive teams in the nation.
- Interior Defense: 3.0 BPG (35th), 6.8 SPG (233rd) – Solid rim protection but lacks elite turnover creation.
Iowa State Cyclones
- Shooting Efficiency: 48.6% FG (29th), 35.1% 3P (115th), 75.2% FT (71st) – Balanced offense with solid efficiency.
- Rebounding: 34.1 RPG (100th), 9.5 ORPG (148th) – Slightly better offensive rebounding than Kansas.
- Ball Movement: 15.3 APG (86th), 1.4 AST/TO (68th) – Moves the ball well but can be turnover-prone.
- Turnovers: 11.1 TO per game (99th) – Nearly identical to Kansas in taking care of the ball.
- Defensive Strengths: 41.3% Opp FG (71st), 7.0 SPG (12th) – Forces mistakes and applies defensive pressure.
- Interior Defense: 3.3 BPG (139th), 24.6 DRPG (47th) – Decent rim protection but not elite.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offensive Comparison
| Metric | Kansas | Rank | Iowa State | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 77.2 | 108th | 83.0 | 20th |
| FG% | 47.7% | 48th | 48.6% | 29th |
| 3P% | 33.9% | 180th | 35.1% | 115th |
| FT% | 72.6% | 160th | 75.2% | 71st |
| Rebounds | 35.7 | 44th | 34.1 | 100th |
| Offensive Rebounds | 9.2 | 174th | 9.5 | 148th |
Defensive Comparison
| Metric | Kansas | Rank | Iowa State | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 66.7 | 52nd | 67.6 | 64th |
| Opponent FG% | 38.5% | 11th | 41.3% | 71st |
| Opponent 3P% | 29.6% | 25th | 33.6% | 205th |
| Defensive Rebounds | 22.8 | 17th | 24.6 | 47th |
| Steals | 6.8 | 233rd | 7.0 | 12th |
| Blocks | 3.0 | 35th | 3.3 | 139th |
Pace & Tempo
- Kansas plays at a moderate pace (62.3 FGA per game, 52nd).
- Iowa State slows the game down (59.8 FGA per game, 136th).
Edge: Kansas – If the Jayhawks can speed up the game and force Iowa State into transition, they will have a significant advantage. If Iowa State dictates a slower tempo, Kansas’ elite half-court defense should limit its efficiency.
Home/Away Performance
| Team | Record (SU) | ATS | O/U | Home Record (SU) | Road Record (SU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | 17-4 | 12-9 | 10-11 | 11-1 | 4-2 |
| Kansas | 15-6 | 10-11 | 5-16 | 10-2 | 3-4 |
- Kansas has won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
- Kansas plays significantly better at home (10-2), while Iowa State is solid but less dominant on the road (4-2).
- ATS Trends: Kansas is 5-16 to the Under, suggesting their defense keeps games lower-scoring.
Matchup-Specific Factors
Edge for Kansas:
- Perimeter Defense: Kansas holds teams to 29.6% from deep (25th), a key against Iowa State’s 35.1% 3P shooting (115th).
- Home-Court Advantage: Kansas has won 7 of the last 10 meetings, showing consistent success in this matchup.
Edge for Iowa State:
- Turnover Battle: Iowa State forces 7.0 steals per game (12th), while Kansas lacks defensive pressure (233rd in steals).
- Free Throw Volume: Iowa State gets to the line much more (27th in FTA vs. Kansas 351st).
Game Odds & Betting Insights
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | -2 (-110) | u144.5 (-105) | -145 |
| Iowa State | +2 (-110) | o144.5 (-115) | +120 |
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score:
Kansas 72, Iowa State 67
Spread Pick: Kansas -2 (Moderate Confidence)
- Kansas has won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
- Kansas’ defense and home-court edge should be the difference.
Total (O/U) Lean: Under 144.5 (High Confidence)
- Kansas has hit the Under in 16 of 21 games this season.
- Both teams have strong defenses and play at a moderate pace.
Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Kansas -2
Lean: Under 144.5
Predicted Score: Kansas 72, Iowa State 67
