Quick Pick: Auburn -5.5
Auburn’s high-powered offense (84.2 PPG, 13th) and efficient shooting (48.6% FG, 26th) give them a strong edge over Ole Miss. The Tigers dominate on the glass (35.8 RPG, 42nd), while the Rebels struggle with rebounding (31.0 RPG, 266th). Auburn’s ball security (9.3 TO per game, 6th) and elite interior defense (2.5 BPG, 1st) should neutralize Ole Miss’ home-court advantage. Expect Auburn’s pace and rebounding edge to overwhelm Ole Miss as the Tigers cover the spread.
Game Preview: Ole Miss vs. Auburn
Auburn Tigers (19-1, 12-8 ATS, 11-9 O/U, 4-1 Away, 9-0 Home)
Ole Miss Rebels (16-5, 13-8 ATS, 8-13 O/U, 3-3 Away, 10-1 Home)
1. Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
Auburn Tigers
- Shooting Efficiency: 48.6% FG (26th), 37.0% 3P% (55th), 74.3% FT (96th) – Balanced scoring with perimeter efficiency.
- Rebounding Advantage: 35.8 RPG (42nd), 10.9 ORPG (55th) – Consistently wins the rebounding battle.
- Ball Movement: 17.0 APG (27th) – Creates high-quality shots with strong passing.
- Turnovers: 9.3 TO per game (6th) – Takes care of the ball exceptionally well.
- Defensive Strengths: Opponents shoot just 39.4% FG (19th), 30.1% 3P% (44th) – Forces difficult shots.
- Interior Defense: 2.5 BPG (1st) – Best shot-blocking team in the nation.
- Defensive Pressure: 6.2 SPG (133rd) – Below average at forcing steals.
Ole Miss Rebels
- Shooting Efficiency: 44.5% FG (204th), 35.0% 3P% (128th), 73.2% FT (132nd) – Struggles with offensive efficiency.
- Rebounding Struggles: 31.0 RPG (266th), 7.6 ORPG (299th) – A major liability on the boards.
- Ball Movement: 15.6 APG (81st) – Moves the ball well but not elite.
- Turnovers: 9.3 TO per game (4th) – One of the best in the nation at protecting the ball.
- Defensive Strengths: Opponents shoot 40.6% FG (47th), 29.7% 3P% (32nd) – Strong perimeter defense.
- Defensive Pressure: 9.9 SPG (66th) – Great at forcing turnovers.
- Interior Defense: 4.6 BPG (315th) – Struggles in rim protection.
2. Key Metrics Comparison
MetricAuburnNational RankOle MissNational RankPoints Per Game84.213th77.5102ndFG%48.6%26th44.5%204th3P%37.0%55th35.0%128thFT%74.3%96th73.2%132ndRebounds35.842nd31.0266thOffensive Rebounds10.955th7.6299th
Defensive Comparison
MetricAuburnNational RankOle MissNational RankOpponent PPG65.840th66.349thOpponent FG%39.4%19th40.6%47thOpponent 3P%30.1%44th29.7%32ndDefensive Rebounds28.451st33.2293rdSteals6.2133rd9.966thBlocks2.51st4.6315th
3. Pace & Tempo
- Auburn plays at a faster pace, averaging 84.2 PPG (13th) and excelling in transition.
- Ole Miss prefers a slower tempo but struggles with rebounding, limiting second-chance opportunities.
- Edge: Auburn – Their ability to control pace and attack the glass should put Ole Miss on the back foot.
4. Home/Away Performance
TeamRecord (SU)ATSO/UHome Record (SU)Road Record (SU)Ole Miss16-513-88-1310-13-3Auburn19-112-811-99-04-1
- Ole Miss is strong at home (10-1 SU), but Auburn has been dominant on the road (4-1 SU).
- Edge: Auburn – Their ability to win away from home makes them a solid favorite.
5. Matchup-Specific Factors
- Perimeter Play: Auburn’s 37.0% 3P% (55th) vs. Ole Miss’ 29.7% opponent 3P% (32nd) – Slight defensive edge to Ole Miss.
- Rebounding Edge: Auburn’s 35.8 RPG (42nd) vs. Ole Miss’ 31.0 RPG (266th) – A clear Auburn advantage.
- Turnover Battle: Both teams protect the ball well, but Auburn’s 1.8 AST/TO ratio (4th) is elite.
- Free Throws: Auburn has a slight edge in FT% (74.3% vs. 73.2%), but it’s not a major factor.
6. Game Odds & Betting Insights
TeamSpreadTotalMoneylineOle Miss+5.5 (-110)u147.5 (-110)+195Auburn-5.5 (-110)o147.5 (-110)-235
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score:
Auburn 78, Ole Miss 70
Spread Pick: Auburn -5.5
- Auburn’s dominance in rebounding and shooting efficiency gives them the edge.
- Ole Miss’ lack of interior presence (315th in blocks) will struggle against Auburn’s post play.
- Auburn has covered in 12 of 20 games and is 4-1 SU on the road.
Confidence Level: High
Total (O/U) Lean: Over 147.5
- Auburn’s pace and offensive firepower favor the over.
Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Auburn -5.5
Lean: Over 147.5
Predicted Score: Auburn 78, Ole Miss 70
Auburn’s rebounding, efficient offense, and road success make them the better team in this matchup. Expect the Tigers to control the tempo and win comfortably, covering the spread.
