Quick Pick: Florida +4.5
Florida’s dominant rebounding (41.6 RPG, 2nd) and efficient inside scoring (47.0% FG, 77th) give them a key edge against Tennessee. The Gators excel on the offensive glass (13.8 ORPG, 1st), which could create second-chance opportunities against a Volunteers defense that allows 27.2 defensive rebounds per game (18th). Tennessee’s defense is elite, ranking 3rd in opponent PPG (59.3), 4th in opponent FG% (36.6%), and 1st in opponent 3P% (26.5%), but Florida’s ability to control the paint and push tempo gives them a strong chance to cover the spread. Expect a physical, grind-it-out game with Florida keeping it close.
Game Preview: Tennessee vs. Florida
Florida Gators (18-2, 14-6 ATS, 7-12-1 O/U, 3-1 Away, 10-1 Home)
Tennessee Volunteers (17-4, 12-8-1 ATS, 8-13 O/U, 3-3 Away, 11-1 Home)
Offensive Strengths & Weaknesses
Florida Gators
- Shooting Efficiency: 47.0% FG (77th), 34.3% 3P% (156th) – Prefers to attack inside rather than rely on perimeter shooting.
- Rebounding Dominance: 41.6 RPG (2nd), 13.8 ORPG (1st) – Generates extra possessions.
- Free Throw Shooting: 71.6% FT (192nd) – Struggles at times in late-game situations.
- Ball Movement: 15.5 APG (86th) – Moves the ball well but is not elite in creating open shots.
Tennessee Volunteers
- Shooting Efficiency: 44.6% FG (192nd), 33.4% 3P% (206th) – Struggles with shooting efficiency.
- Rebounding: 35.2 RPG (54th), 11.0 ORPG (51st) – Good, but not dominant on the glass.
- Free Throw Efficiency: 75.8% FT (57th) – Converts at a high rate.
- Assists: 15.7 APG (74th) – Similar to Florida in ball distribution.
Defensive Strengths & Weaknesses
Tennessee Volunteers
- Elite Defense Across the Board: 3rd in opponent PPG (59.3), 4th in opponent FG% (36.6%), 1st in opponent 3P% (26.5%).
- Defensive Rebounding: 27.2 RPG (18th) – Limits second-chance opportunities effectively.
- Steals & Turnovers: 5.9 SPG (101st) – Defensive pressure is solid but not elite.
Florida Gators
- Strong FG Defense: Opponents shoot 37.8% FG (10th) – Forces difficult shots inside.
- Perimeter Defense: Holds opponents to 27.9% 3P% (5th) – Strong at limiting three-point efficiency.
- Defensive Rebounding: 30.1 RPG (121st) – Can struggle to limit offensive rebounds.
- Turnovers Forced: 7.8 SPG (65th) – More effective than Tennessee at creating turnovers.
Key Metrics Comparison
MetricFloridaNational RankTennesseeNational RankPoints Per Game85.28th75.0176thFG%47.0%77th44.6%192nd3P%34.3%156th33.4%206thFT%71.6%192nd75.8%57thRebounds41.62nd35.254th
Defensive Comparison
MetricTennesseeNational RankFloridaNational RankOpponent PPG59.33rd65.438thOpponent FG%36.6%4th37.8%10thOpponent 3P%26.5%1st27.9%5thDefensive Rebounds27.218th30.1121stSteals5.9101st7.865th
Pace & Tempo
- Florida prefers an up-tempo game, averaging 85.2 PPG (8th), relying on rebounding dominance and quick transition offense.
- Tennessee is more methodical, focusing on elite defense to limit opponent scoring opportunities.
- Edge: Florida – If they can push the pace and generate second-chance opportunities, they can wear down Tennessee’s defense.
Home/Away Performance
TeamRecord (SU)ATSO/URoad Record (SU)Home Record (SU)Florida18-214-67-12-13-110-1Tennessee17-412-8-18-133-311-1
- Tennessee is tough at home (11-1 SU), but their ATS record isn’t dominant.
- Florida has been solid away from home (3-1 SU).
- Edge: Florida – They’ve shown consistency on the road, while Tennessee hasn’t been dominant ATS at home.
Matchup-Specific Factors
- Perimeter Play: Tennessee’s elite three-point defense (26.5%, 1st) could limit Florida’s shooting efficiency.
- Rebounding Edge: Florida’s dominance on the boards (41.6 RPG, 2nd) gives them a strong advantage over Tennessee (35.2 RPG, 54th).
- Turnover Battle: Florida forces more turnovers (7.8 SPG, 65th) than Tennessee (5.9 SPG, 101st).
- Free Throws: Tennessee has a slight edge in FT% (75.8% vs. 71.6%), but it’s not a major factor.
Game Odds
TeamSpreadTotalMoneylineFlorida+4.5 (-105)o143.5 (-110)+180Tennessee-4.5 (-115)u143.5 (-110)-220
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score:
Tennessee 72, Florida 70
Spread Pick: Florida +4.5
- Florida’s rebounding dominance and defensive efficiency make them a strong underdog bet.
- Tennessee’s offense isn’t efficient enough to pull away in a high-possession game.
- Florida has covered in 14 of 20 games, showing value as an underdog.
Confidence Level: Moderate
Total (O/U) Lean: Under 143.5
- Both teams have elite defenses, ranking in the top 10 in opponent FG%.
- Tennessee has hit the under in 13 of 21 games.
- Florida’s ability to control tempo could keep scoring lower than expected.
Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Florida +4.5
Lean: Under 143.5
Predicted Score: Tennessee 72, Florida 70
Florida’s elite rebounding, defensive efficiency, and ability to dictate tempo give them a great chance to cover in a low-scoring battle. Expect a close, physical game where the underdog stays within the number.
