Quick Pick: Dayton +2.5
Dayton’s disciplined offense (47.3% FG, 62nd) and strong ball movement (16.2 APG, 50th) give them an advantage against Saint Louis. The Flyers are excellent at taking care of the ball, averaging just 10.1 turnovers per game (25th), while Saint Louis struggles with giveaways (12.7 TO per game, 254th). The Billikens, however, have an elite perimeter defense, holding opponents to just 29.3% from three (27th), which could limit Dayton’s efficiency from deep (36.4% 3P%, 64th). Dayton has won eight of the last ten meetings and is poised to cover the spread by controlling tempo and capitalizing on Saint Louis’ turnover issues.
Game Preview: Saint Louis vs. Dayton
Dayton Flyers (14-7, 10-10 ATS, 13-6-1 O/U, 1-3 Away, 12-1 Home)
Saint Louis Billikens (13-8, 7-12 ATS, 4-15 O/U, 2-5 Away, 11-1 Home)
Offensive Strengths & Weaknesses
Dayton Flyers
Shooting Efficiency: 47.3% FG (62nd), 36.4% 3P% (64th) – Well-balanced scoring attack.
Ball Movement: 16.2 assists per game (50th) – Generates high-quality shots.
Turnover Control: 10.1 TO per game (25th) – One of the best in the nation.
Offensive Rebounding: 7.6 ORPG (301st) – Struggles to generate second-chance points.
Saint Louis Billikens
Three-Point Volume: 27.1 attempts per game (48th) – Relies heavily on outside shooting.
Assists: 15.3 per game (93rd) – Moves the ball well to create opportunities.
Free Throw Shooting: 67.8% (297th) – A major liability in close games.
Turnovers: 12.7 TO per game (254th) – Ball security is a significant weakness.
Defensive Strengths & Weaknesses
Dayton Flyers
Strong FG Defense: Opponents shoot just 41.1% from the field (72nd).
Defensive Rebounding: 23.1 DRPG (100th) – Secures defensive boards effectively.
Turnover Generation: 6.7 steals per game (36th) – Disrupts opposing offenses.
Interior Defense: 3.4 blocks per game (172nd) – Lacks elite rim protection.
Saint Louis Billikens
Elite Three-Point Defense: Holds opponents to 29.3% from deep (27th), which could disrupt Dayton’s perimeter game.
Defensive Rebounding: 21.4 DRPG (198th) – Below average in securing boards.
Field Goal Defense: Allows 43.5% shooting (190th), meaning teams find success inside.
Steals & Turnovers: 5.6 steals per game (206th) – Lacks consistent defensive pressure.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offensive Comparison
| Metric | Dayton | Dayton Value | Saint Louis | Saint Louis Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 175th | 75.0 | 187th | 74.6 |
| FG% | 62nd | 47.3% | 53rd | 47.6% |
| 3P% | 64th | 36.4% | 184th | 33.9% |
| FT% | 188th | 71.7% | 297th | 67.8% |
| Rebounds | 288th | 30.7 | 158th | 32.8 |
Defensive Comparison
| Metric | Dayton | Dayton Value | Saint Louis | Saint Louis Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 116th | 69.4 | 104th | 69.0 |
| Opponent FG% | 72nd | 41.1% | 190th | 43.5% |
| Opponent 3P% | 27th | 29.3% | 250th | 34.5% |
| Defensive Rebounds | 100th | 23.1 | 198th | 21.4 |
| Steals | 36th | 6.7 | 206th | 5.6 |
Pace & Tempo
Dayton prefers a deliberate, slow-paced approach, relying on half-court efficiency.
Saint Louis plays faster, taking a high volume of threes and looking for transition scoring.
Edge: Dayton – Their ability to dictate the tempo will limit Saint Louis’ transition offense.
Home/Away Performance
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U | Road Record | Home Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | 14-7 | 10-10 | 13-6-1 | 1-3 | 12-1 |
| Saint Louis | 13-8 | 7-12 | 4-15-0 | 2-5 | 11-1 |
Dayton has struggled on the road but has historically dominated this matchup.
Saint Louis is strong at home but has struggled against the spread.
Matchup-Specific Factors
Perimeter Play: Dayton’s efficient shooting (36.4% 3P%) will be challenged by Saint Louis’ elite three-point defense (29.3% opponent 3P%).
Turnover Battle: Dayton is one of the best in the nation at protecting the ball, while Saint Louis struggles with giveaways.
Rebounding Edge: Neither team excels, but Saint Louis has a slight advantage in total rebounding.
Free Throws: Dayton has a slight edge at the line (71.7% vs. 67.8%), though neither team is great in clutch free throw situations.
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | +2.5 | o144.5 | +110 |
| Saint Louis | -2.5 | u144.5 | -135 |
Prediction & Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score: Dayton 74, Saint Louis 68
Spread Pick: Dayton +2.5
Dayton’s perimeter efficiency, turnover discipline, and ability to slow the pace give them a strong edge.
Saint Louis has a 7-12 ATS record, struggling to cover the spread despite their strong home play.
Dayton has won eight of the last ten meetings, giving them a significant historical advantage.
Confidence Level: Moderate
Total (O/U) Lean: Under 144.5
Saint Louis has hit the under in 15 of 19 games this season.
Dayton’s defensive efficiency and slow tempo should keep scoring in check.
A lower possession count favors the under.
Trends to Consider:
Dayton is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings vs. Saint Louis.
Saint Louis is 4-15 to the under this season.
Saint Louis’ elite perimeter defense will challenge Dayton’s three-point shooting.
Final Betting Verdict
Best Bet: Dayton +2.5
Lean: Under 144.5
Predicted Score: Dayton 74, Saint Louis 68
Dayton’s ability to control tempo, limit turnovers, and capitalize on Saint Louis’ offensive inefficiencies gives them the upper hand. Saint Louis’ strong perimeter defense may slow Dayton’s outside shooting, but the Billikens’ turnover issues and poor free throw shooting make it difficult to trust them as favorites. Expect Dayton to dictate the pace and cover the spread in a lower-scoring game.
