Quick Pick: Memphis -6.5
Memphis’s solid three-point shooting (39.5%, 13th) and effective field goal percentage (47.3%) give them a clear edge over Tulane. With a strong defensive stance (holding opponents to 39.6% FG), Memphis is positioned to dominate the game. Tulane, struggling with field goal efficiency (44.8%) and weak rebounding (32.1 RPG, 205th), will likely find it difficult to keep up. Memphis’s ability to control both ends of the court makes them a solid bet to cover the spread.
Game Preview: Tulane vs. Memphis
Tulane Green Wave (11-9, 10-8 ATS, 6-10-2 O/U, 2-4 Away, 9-2 Home)
Offensive Strengths
- Free Throw Efficiency: Excelling at the line (77.2%, 34th), crucial for capitalizing in close games.
- Perimeter Shooting: A reasonable three-point shooting team (34.9%), necessary to challenge Memphis’s defense.
Offensive Weaknesses
- Scoring Efficiency: Only shooting 44.8% from the field (179th), which could be detrimental against Memphis’s tight defense.
- Rebounding: Poor rebounding metrics may lead to fewer second-chance points against a strong Memphis side.
Defensive Strengths
- Perimeter Defense: Fairly good at containing the three-point line (32.7%), important against a proficient Memphis shooting team.
- Steals: Capable of creating turnovers (7.9 steals per game), which could disrupt Memphis’s rhythm.
Defensive Weaknesses
- Interior Defense: Allowing a higher field goal percentage (41.6%) could be exploited by Memphis’s aggressive inside play.
Memphis Tigers (16-4, 10-10 ATS, 10-10 O/U, 5-1 Away, 8-2 Home)
Offensive Strengths
- Shooting Prowess: Impressive accuracy from beyond the arc (39.5%) and from the field (47.3%) provides a significant advantage.
- Rebounding: Strong rebounding on both ends (32.4 per game) helps maintain control of the game flow.
Offensive Weaknesses
- Turnovers: Averaging 14.7 turnovers per game, which could offer Tulane opportunities to stay competitive.
Defensive Strengths
- Field Goal Defense: Strong at limiting opponents’ shooting efficiency (39.6%), critical for keeping games under control.
- Block Presence: Good at defending the rim, which will challenge Tulane’s attempts inside.
Defensive Weaknesses
- Foul Rate: High fouling could lead to beneficial situations for Tulane at the free-throw line.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offense
| Metric | Tulane (Rank) | Tulane Value | Memphis (Rank) | Memphis Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 126th | 76.5 | 95th | 79.0 |
| FG% | 179th | 44.8% | 94th | 47.3% |
| 3P% | 127th | 34.9% | 13th | 39.5% |
| FT% | 34th | 77.2% | 157th | 72.0% |
| Rebounds | 205th | 32.1 | 191st | 32.4 |
Defense
| Metric | Tulane (Rank) | Tulane Value | Memphis (Rank) | Memphis Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 228th | 73.2 | 96th | 68.5 |
| Opponent FG% | 92nd | 41.6% | 27th | 39.6% |
| Opponent 3P% | 147th | 32.7% | 36th | 29.9% |
| Defensive Rebounds | 243rd | 24.6 | 59th | 22.8 |
| Steals | 130th | 7.9 | 330th | 7.7 |
| Blocks | 284th | 4.7 | 298th | 4.2 |
- Rebounding Edge: Memphis has a slight edge in overall rebounds which could lead to extra possessions.
- Turnover Battle: Tulane is slightly better at protecting the ball, but Memphis’s defense could neutralize this advantage.
- Free Throws: Tulane excels at free throw shooting, which could keep them in the game during critical moments.
Pace & Tempo
- Memphis: Tends to control the game with their shooting efficiency and defensive capabilities.
- Tulane: Needs to manage the game pace through strategic use of perimeter shooting and free throws.
- Edge: Memphis – Likely to dictate the tempo and enforce their playing style.
Home/Away Performance
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U | Road Record | Home Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane | 11-9 | 10-8 | 6-10-2 | 2-4 | 9-2 |
| Memphis | 16-4 | 10-10 | 10-10 | 5-1 | 8-2 |
- Memphis shows strong performance both at home and on the road.
- Tulane performs well at home, but their away record shows vulnerabilities.
Matchup-Specific Factors
- Memphis’s Shooting vs. Tulane’s Defense: Memphis’s high three-point shooting percentage will challenge Tulane’s perimeter defense.
- Rebounding Battle: Memphis’s slight advantage in rebounding might tip the scales in their favor, limiting Tulane’s opportunities for second-chance points.
- Tulane’s Free Throw Shooting: Tulane’s efficiency at the line could be crucial in keeping the score tight.
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane | +6.5 | u151.5 | +220 |
| Memphis | -6.5 | o151.5 | -275 |
Prediction & Betting Insights
- Predicted Winner and Final Score: Memphis 78, Tulane 70
- Spread Pick: Memphis -6.5. Memphis’s offensive and defensive strengths should enable them to cover the spread.
- Confidence Level: High. Memphis’s overall performance indicators suggest they have the upper hand in this matchup.
Final Conclusion: Best Bet – Memphis -6.5
Memphis’s proficiency in key areas such as shooting and rebounding, combined with their defensive strength, should lead them to a comfortable victory over Tulane. Tulane’s dependency on free throws and perimeter shooting might not suffice against Memphis’s robust gameplay. Expect Memphis to control the pace and effectively manage the game, leading to a successful cover of the spread.
