Quick Pick: Ohio State +3.5 (-105)
Ohio State’s elite perimeter defense (29.1% opponent 3P%) and rebounding should keep this close. While Penn State thrives at home (10-2) and plays fast (83.2 PPG, 22nd), Ohio State’s ability to limit assists (10.9 APG allowed, 33rd) and their shooting efficiency (37.2% 3P, 30th) give them the edge to cover.
Game Preview: Ohio State vs. Penn State
Ohio State Buckeyes (12-8, 12-8 ATS, 9-11 O/U, 2-3 Away, 8-4 Home)
Offensive Strengths
- Three-Point Efficiency: Ohio State shoots 37.2% from deep (30th nationally), a key edge against Penn State’s 209th-ranked perimeter defense.
- Free Throw Volume: OSU gets to the line often (21.1 FTA per game, 85th) and converts at 73.4% (126th nationally).
- Scoring Depth: The Buckeyes average 79.8 PPG (64th nationally), making them a well-rounded offensive team.
Offensive Weaknesses
- Lack of Ball Movement: OSU averages 13.8 assists per game (185th nationally), relying more on isolation scoring.
- Rebounding Issues: The Buckeyes rank 305th in offensive rebounding, limiting their second-chance opportunities.
Defensive Strengths
- Elite Perimeter Defense: OSU allows opponents to shoot just 29.1% from three (25th nationally), limiting Penn State’s shooting attack.
- Interior Defense: OSU holds opponents to 39.9% FG (33rd nationally) and averages 3.5 blocks per game (100th nationally).
- Strong Ball Pressure: OSU ranks 33rd in assists allowed per game (10.9), making it difficult for Penn State’s assist-heavy offense to create easy looks.
Defensive Weaknesses
- Struggles Forcing Turnovers: The Buckeyes force just 6.6 steals per game (1st nationally), meaning Penn State will likely control possessions.
- Defensive Rebounding Issues: Ohio State allows 30.2 RPG (141st nationally), which could give Penn State some extra opportunities.
Penn State Nittany Lions (13-8, 11-10 ATS, 9-12 O/U, 1-5 Away, 10-2 Home)
Offensive Strengths
- High-Scoring Attack: Penn State ranks 22nd nationally in PPG (83.2), thriving in fast-paced games.
- Elite Ball Movement: The Nittany Lions rank 31st in assists per game (16.9), which helps create high-percentage shots.
- Free Throw Efficiency: Penn State shoots 75.9% from the line (53rd nationally) and attempts 22.7 FTA per game (44th nationally).
Offensive Weaknesses
- Heavy Dependence on Assists: Penn State’s offense relies on ball movement, but Ohio State limits assists (33rd in APG allowed).
- Three-Point Inconsistency: PSU shoots 34.7% from deep (140th nationally), which could struggle against OSU’s elite perimeter defense (25th in opponent 3P%).
Defensive Strengths
- Forces Turnovers: Penn State generates 9.0 steals per game (207th nationally), which could disrupt OSU’s ball handlers.
- Tempo Control: Despite playing fast, PSU allows just 72.1 PPG (206th nationally), making them a solid defensive team overall.
Defensive Weaknesses
- Three-Point Defense: Opponents shoot 33.7% from deep (209th nationally), which plays into OSU’s shooting strength.
- Lack of Rim Protection: Penn State averages just 3.0 blocks per game (83rd nationally), making them vulnerable inside.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offense
| Metric | Ohio State (Rank) | Ohio State Value | Penn State (Rank) | Penn State Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game (PPG) | 64th | 79.8 | 22nd | 83.2 |
| FG% | 35th | 48.2% | 23rd | 48.8% |
| 3P% | 30th | 37.2% | 140th | 34.7% |
| FT% | 126th | 73.4% | 53rd | 75.9% |
| Rebounds | 241st | 32.0 | 211th | 32.0 |
Defense
| Metric | Ohio State (Rank) | Ohio State Value | Penn State (Rank) | Penn State Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 185th | 71.0 | 206th | 72.1 |
| Opponent FG% | 33rd | 39.9% | 245th | 44.4% |
| Opponent 3P% | 25th | 29.1% | 209th | 33.7% |
| Defensive Rebounds | 141st | 30.2 | 148th | 30.5 |
| Steals | 1st | 6.6 | 207th | 9.0 |
| Blocks | 100th | 3.5 | 83rd | 3.0 |
Pace & Tempo
- Penn State plays at a faster pace, averaging 83.2 PPG (22nd nationally).
- Ohio State is slightly slower but still efficient, averaging 79.8 PPG (64th).
- Edge: Penn State – They will push the tempo, but OSU’s efficiency should keep them in it.
Home/Away Performance
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U | Road Record | Home Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 12-8 | 12-8-0 | 9-11-0 | 2-3 | 8-4 |
| Penn State | 13-8 | 11-10-0 | 9-12-0 | 1-5 | 10-2 |
- Penn State is dominant at home (10-2), while OSU has struggled on the road (2-3).
- Ohio State has been slightly better ATS (12-8) than Penn State (11-10).
Matchup-Specific Factors
- Ohio State’s three-point shooting (37.2% 3P) is a major edge vs. PSU’s 209th-ranked 3P defense.
- Ohio State’s strong assist defense (33rd in assists allowed) could disrupt Penn State’s passing game.
- Penn State’s pace will push OSU, but the Buckeyes’ efficient shooting should keep them in the game.
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +3.5 | o149.5 | +145 |
| Penn State | -3.5 | u149.5 | -175 |
Prediction & Betting Insights
- Predicted Winner and Final Score: Penn State 78, Ohio State 76
- Spread Pick: Ohio State +3.5 – Buckeyes’ perimeter defense and rebounding should keep it close.
- Confidence Level: Moderate
- O/U Lean: Over 149.5 – Both teams play at a fast pace.
- Trend to Consider: Penn State is 10-2 at home, but Ohio State’s defense should keep it tight.
Final Conclusion
Best Bet: Ohio State +3.5
Ohio State’s strong three-point shooting and perimeter defense should keep this game competitive. While Penn State is the better team at home, OSU’s ability to defend the perimeter and limit Penn State’s assists gives them the edge to cover the spread.
