Game Preview: Maryland vs. Wisconsin
Offensive and Defensive Strengths
Wisconsin Badgers (16-4, 12-7-1 ATS, 2-3 Away)
Offensive Strengths:
- Shooting Efficiency: Wisconsin shoots 47.2% FG (69th) and 36.2% from three (94th), showing strong offensive balance.
- Free Throw Shooting: Wisconsin leads the nation in free throw percentage at 85.3% (1st), a key advantage in close games.
- Turnover Discipline: The Badgers take care of the ball well, averaging 10.3 turnovers per game (48th) with a 1.5 AST/TO ratio (49th).
- Scoring Output: Wisconsin averages 82.5 PPG (31st), proving they can score effectively.
Offensive Weaknesses:
- Offensive Rebounding: The Badgers are poor on the offensive glass, ranking 303rd in offensive rebounds per game (7.3).
- Limited Shot Volume: They attempt 58.2 field goals per game (222nd) and 27.4 three-pointers per game (56th), relying more on efficiency than high shot volume.
Defensive Strengths:
- Perimeter Defense: Wisconsin holds opponents to 31.4% 3P% (97th), making it difficult for Maryland to get open looks from deep.
- Steals: Wisconsin ranks 9th nationally in steals (5.3 per game), allowing them to generate transition opportunities.
Defensive Weaknesses:
- Interior Defense: They average 2.1 blocks per game (125th), meaning they lack significant rim protection.
- Rebounding Struggles: Wisconsin ranks 221st in total rebounds (32.4 RPG), which could be a problem against Maryland’s physicality inside.
Maryland Terrapins (16-5, 10-11 ATS, 2-4 Away)
Offensive Strengths:
- Shooting Efficiency: Maryland shoots 48.8% FG (25th) and 36.5% from three (61st), making them a well-rounded scoring team.
- Ball Movement: The Terrapins distribute the ball well, averaging 15.5 assists per game (87th).
- Scoring Output: Maryland ranks 22nd nationally in scoring (83.4 PPG), slightly higher than Wisconsin.
Offensive Weaknesses:
- Free Throw Shooting: Maryland converts 74.8% from the line (85th), which is solid but significantly worse than Wisconsin’s elite mark.
- Turnover Issues: Maryland commits 10.4 turnovers per game (45th), which is similar to Wisconsin but still a concern against the Badgers’ strong defensive presence.
Defensive Strengths:
- Turnover Generation: Maryland forces 8.0 steals per game (8th), ranking among the best at disrupting opponents.
- Interior Defense: Maryland blocks 4.5 shots per game (11th), giving them a significant edge over Wisconsin in rim protection.
Defensive Weaknesses:
- Three-Point Defense: Maryland allows opponents to shoot 31.2% from three (77th), which could be exploited by Wisconsin’s capable shooters.
- Rebounding Concerns: Maryland ranks 109th in rebounds per game (29.9 RPG), only slightly better than Wisconsin.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offense
| Metric | Wisconsin (Rank) | Maryland (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game (PPG) | 82.5 (31st) | 83.4 (22nd) |
| FG% | 47.2% (69th) | 48.8% (25th) |
| 3P% | 36.2% (94th) | 36.5% (61st) |
| FT% | 85.3% (1st) | 74.8% (85th) |
| Rebounds | 32.4 (221st) | 34.2 (101st) |
| Offensive Rebounds | 7.3 (303rd) | 9.6 (148th) |
| Assists | 15.2 (100th) | 15.5 (87th) |
| Turnovers | 10.3 (48th) | 10.4 (45th) |
Defense
| Metric | Wisconsin (Rank) | Maryland (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent PPG | 70.3 (177th) | 65.4 (36th) |
| Opponent FG% | 41.6% (103rd) | 41.7% (90th) |
| Opponent 3P% | 31.2% (77th) | 31.4% (97th) |
| Defensive Rebounds | 25.1 (95th) | 24.6 (85th) |
| Steals | 5.3 (9th) | 8.0 (8th) |
| Blocks | 2.1 (125th) | 4.5 (11th) |
Pace & Tempo
- Wisconsin prefers a slow, methodical game, ranking outside the top 200 in possessions per game.
- Maryland plays faster, ranking in the top 100 in tempo.
- Edge: Maryland will try to dictate pace, but Wisconsin’s disciplined half-court offense could slow things down.
Home/Away Performance
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U | Away Record | Home Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 16-4 | 12-7-1 | 13-7-0 | 2-3 | 11-1 |
| Maryland | 16-5 | 10-11-0 | 13-7-1 | 2-4 | 12-1 |
- Maryland is 12-1 at home, giving them a strong home-court advantage.
- Wisconsin is 2-3 on the road, struggling outside of Madison.
Edge: Maryland due to home dominance.
Matchup-Specific Factors
- Three-Point Battle: Both teams shoot well from deep, but Maryland’s perimeter defense could be slightly exploitable.
- Rebounding Struggles: Neither team dominates the glass, so second-chance points will be limited.
- Turnovers: Both teams protect the ball well, but Maryland forces more steals, which could be a swing factor.
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | +5.5 | o152.5 | +170 |
| Maryland | -5.5 | u152.5 | -210 |
Prediction and Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score
- Maryland 77, Wisconsin 72
- Maryland wins, but Wisconsin keeps it close.
Spread Pick
- Pick: Wisconsin +5.5
- Confidence Level: Moderate-High
- Why? Wisconsin’s free-throw shooting and ball security should keep them competitive.
Final Conclusion
- Best Bet: Wisconsin +5.5
Wisconsin should stay within the spread thanks to its three-point shooting, free throws, and turnover discipline. Maryland’s home-court edge is strong, but this projects as a close game rather than a blowout.
