Three-Point Accuracy: They shoot 37.4% from deep (42nd nationally), making them a legitimate perimeter threat.
Free Throw Efficiency: Texas converts 75.1% of free throws (76th nationally), which is crucial in close games.
Turnover Discipline: Texas averages just 9.6 turnovers per game (11th nationally), meaning they take care of the ball well.
Offensive Weaknesses:
Lack of Shot Volume: They rank 256th in field goal attempts and 274th in three-point attempts, meaning they don’t take as many shots as other high-efficiency teams.
Weak Offensive Rebounding: Texas secures only 8.3 offensive rebounds per game (247th nationally), limiting second-chance opportunities.
Defensive Strengths:
Forcing Turnovers: Texas averages 6.8 steals per game (20th nationally), which could disrupt Ole Miss’ offensive flow.
Interior Defense: They allow opponents to shoot 41.2% FG (69th nationally), which is solid for defending inside.
Shot Blocking: Texas records 4.5 blocks per game (88th nationally), adding rim protection.
Defensive Weaknesses:
Defensive Rebounding Struggles: They allow 30.3 rebounds per game (138th nationally) and 9.1 offensive rebounds (234th nationally), which could be a problem against Ole Miss.
Perimeter Defense Issues: Texas allows opponents to shoot 32.8% from three (163rd nationally), which is a concern against Ole Miss’ shooters.
Ole Miss Rebels (15-5, 13-7 ATS, 9-1 Home)
Offensive Strengths:
Balanced Scoring: Ole Miss averages 77.8 PPG (98th nationally), showing they can score both inside and outside.
Turnover Control: Ole Miss, like Texas, commits only 9.6 turnovers per game (10th nationally), ensuring they don’t give away possessions.
Ball Movement: They average 15.6 assists per game (85th nationally), showing strong offensive coordination.
Offensive Weaknesses:
Free Throw Shooting: They shoot 73.0% from the line (138th nationally), slightly below Texas.
Offensive Rebounding Issues: They only grab 7.8 offensive rebounds per game (289th nationally), meaning they struggle to generate second-chance points.
Defensive Strengths:
Forcing Turnovers: Ole Miss generates 10.1 steals per game (93rd nationally), meaning they can pressure Texas into mistakes.
Strong Interior Defense: Allowing 41.2% FG (69th nationally), similar to Texas, showing a tough inside presence.
Elite Perimeter Defense: Ole Miss holds opponents to 30.0% from three (40th nationally), which could limit Texas’ outside shooting.
Defensive Weaknesses:
Rebounding Issues: Ole Miss allows 30.3 rebounds per game (138th nationally), meaning Texas might be able to get extra possessions.
Foul Issues: Ole Miss gives up 18.5 FTA per game (163rd nationally), which could help Texas score at the line.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offense
Metric
Texas (Rank)
Ole Miss (Rank)
Points Per Game (PPG)
78.9 (77th)
77.8 (98th)
FG%
48.2% (38th)
44.7% (184th)
3P%
37.4% (42nd)
35.0% (118th)
FT%
75.1% (76th)
73.0% (138th)
Rebounds
32.3 (187th)
31.2 (261st)
Offensive Rebounds
8.3 (247th)
7.8 (289th)
Assists
13.3 (224th)
15.6 (85th)
Turnovers
9.6 (11th)
9.6 (10th)
Defense
Metric
Texas (Rank)
Ole Miss (Rank)
Opponent PPG
66.3 (48th)
66.3 (51st)
Opponent FG%
41.2% (69th)
40.6% (48th)
Opponent 3P%
32.8% (163rd)
30.0% (40th)
Defensive Rebounds
23.9 (89th)
23.4 (305th)
Steals
6.8 (20th)
10.1 (93rd)
Blocks
4.5 (88th)
4.6 (314th)
Pace and Tempo
Texas plays at a moderate pace, ranking 170th in first-half and second-half points.
Ole Miss plays similarly, ranking 113th in first-half and second-half scoring.
Expect a half-court battle, with neither team looking to push transition too aggressively.
Home/Away Performance
Team
Record
ATS
O/U
Away Record
Home Record
Texas
14-6
11-8-1
9-10-1
2-2
10-3
Ole Miss
15-5
13-7
8-12
3-3
9-1
Ole Miss (9-1 at home) has been dominant in their building, making this a tough matchup for Texas.
Texas (2-2 on the road) has been solid but unproven in difficult environments.
Edge: Ole Miss due to home-court advantage.
Matchup-Specific Factors
Three-Point Battle: Texas shoots 37.4% from three, but Ole Miss defends the perimeter well (30.0% opponent 3P%).
Rebounding Struggles on Both Sides: Neither team excels in rebounding, so second-chance points may be minimal.
Turnovers Could Decide It: Both teams protect the ball well, but Ole Miss forces more steals. If Texas gets sloppy, that could swing the game.
Game Odds
Team
Spread
Total
Moneyline
Texas
+6.5
o141.5
+230
Ole Miss
-6.5
u141.5
-295
Prediction and Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score
Ole Miss 74, Texas 69
Texas keeps it close, but Ole Miss’ home-court advantage and perimeter defense hold up.
Spread Pick
Pick: Texas +6.5
Confidence Level: Moderate
Why? Texas’ three-point shooting and turnover discipline should keep them competitive.
Final Conclusion
Best Bet: Texas +6.5
Texas should stay within the spread thanks to their three-point shooting, ball control, and defense. Ole Miss is strong at home, but expect a competitive game rather than a blowout.
