Efficient Inside Scoring: 45.1% FG (167th), but struggles from three (31.5%, 302nd).
Second-Chance Opportunities: Strong offensive rebounding (10.6 per game, 72nd).
Ball Security: Only 10.0 turnovers per game (20th), limiting costly mistakes.
Defensive Strengths:
Elite Interior Defense: Holds opponents to 39.9% FG (32nd).
Rebounding Control: 33.9 RPG (113th), with strong defensive rebounding (23.3 per game, 90th).
Turnover Generation: 7.2 steals per game (34th).
Perimeter Defense: Opponents shoot just 30.3% from three (51st).
Weaknesses:
Perimeter Shooting Issues: 31.5% from three (302nd) could be a problem against Utah’s strong three-point defense.
Free Throw Struggles: 64.6% FT shooting (347th) could cost them in a close game.
Road Inconsistency: Just 3-4 away from home this season.
Utah Utes (11-8, 9-10 ATS)
Offensive Strengths:
Better Three-Point Shooting: 33.7% from deep (202nd), higher than Cincinnati.
Ball Movement: 18.9 assists per game (6th), moving the ball efficiently.
Balanced Inside-Out Scoring: 45.9% FG (130th).
Defensive Strengths:
Elite FG% Defense: Allows just 39.9% shooting (32nd).
Decent Shot Blocking: 4.3 blocks per game (39th).
Perimeter Defense: Opponents shoot 30.3% from deep (51st), which matches up well against Cincinnati’s weak perimeter shooting.
Weaknesses:
Turnovers: 12.4 per game (233rd), which could be a concern against Cincinnati’s active defense.
Defensive Rebounding: 21.3 per game (185th), meaning they could give up second-chance opportunities.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offense
Metric
Cincinnati (Rank)
Utah (Rank)
FG%
45.1% (167th)
45.9% (130th)
3P%
31.5% (302nd)
33.7% (202nd)
FT%
64.6% (347th)
62.3% (358th)
Rebounds
33.9 (113th)
35.7 (45th)
Assists
14.3 (143rd)
18.9 (6th)
Turnovers
10.0 (20th)
12.4 (233rd)
Points per Game
71.3 (260th)
76.8 (122nd)
Defense
Metric
Cincinnati (Rank)
Utah (Rank)
Opponent FG%
39.9% (32nd)
40.1% (40th)
Opponent 3P%
30.3% (51st)
31.9% (128th)
Defensive Rebounds
23.3 (90th)
25.7 (132nd)
Steals
7.2 (34th)
6.6 (277th)
Blocks
4.8 (83rd)
4.3 (343rd)
Points Allowed
62.7 (14th)
70.3 (146th)
Pace and Tempo
Cincinnati prefers a slower, defensive-oriented style, limiting possessions.
Utah plays slightly faster and excels at ball movement, which could challenge Cincinnati’s half-court defense.
With Utah now favored at -1.5, the oddsmakers are signaling confidence in their ability to dictate tempo.
Edge: Utah – if they keep the game at their pace, their offensive efficiency and home-court advantage could be the difference.
Home/Away Performance
Team
Record
Away
Home
Cincinnati
12-7
3-4
8-3
Utah
11-8
1-3
10-3
Utah is dominant at home (10-3), while Cincinnati has struggled on the road (3-4).
Utah’s only home losses were against top-tier opponents, while Cincinnati’s road struggles make them vulnerable.
Edge: Utah – their home-court advantage should play a major factor.
Matchup-Specific Factors
Utah’s Three-Point Shooting Edge: Cincinnati struggles from beyond the arc, while Utah has a more efficient perimeter attack.
Cincinnati’s Offensive Rebounding: Utah’s defensive rebounding struggles could allow second-chance points, but Utah’s shot defense could negate this advantage.
Turnover Battle: Utah turns the ball over more frequently, but Cincinnati doesn’t force a high number of takeaways.
Free Throw Shooting: Both teams are poor from the line, meaning late-game fouls may not favor either team.
Game Control: If Utah’s ball movement and tempo dictate the game, Cincinnati could struggle offensively.
Game Odds
Team
Spread
Total
Moneyline
Cincinnati
+1.5 (-110)
o138.5 (-110)
-110
Utah
-1.5 (-110)
u138.5 (-110)
-110
Prediction and Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score
Utah 70, Cincinnati 66
Utah’s offensive efficiency and home-court edge should help them close out a tight game.
Spread Pick
Pick: Utah -1.5
Utah is 10-3 at home and has played significantly better in their own building.
Cincinnati has struggled on the road and doesn’t shoot well enough to break through Utah’s perimeter defense.
Utah’s ball movement (18.9 assists per game) should create enough quality looks to overcome Cincinnati’s defensive pressure.
Final Conclusion
Utah’s home-court advantage and three-point edge make them the better play.
Cincinnati’s rebounding could keep them in the game, but their poor outside shooting and road struggles are concerns.
Utah -1.5 is the best bet, as they have proven to be much better at home.
