Game Preview: Georgetown vs. St. John’s
Offensive and Defensive Strengths
Georgetown Hoyas (13-7, 10-3 Home)
Offensive Strengths:
- Georgetown scores 69.2 PPG (270th), relying more on defense to stay competitive.
- Moderate shooting efficiency, hitting 42.9% from the field (247th) and 30.6% from three (310th).
- Decent free-throw shooting at 71.0% (217th), though not a major edge.
- Ball movement is a concern, with just 12.0 APG (259th), ranking among the bottom teams nationally.
Defensive Strengths:
- Strong defense, allowing 65.0 PPG (32nd), keeping games low-scoring.
- Holds opponents to 39.1% FG (16th), one of the best marks in the country.
- Forces 8.0 steals per game (79th), applying solid defensive pressure.
- Weak rebounding team, ranking 112th in total rebounds (29.9 RPG) and 251st in offensive rebounding (9.2 ORPG).
St. John’s Red Storm (17-3, 3-1 Away)
Offensive Strengths:
- High-scoring offense, averaging 80.5 PPG (47th nationally).
- Elite offensive rebounding, pulling down 12.1 ORPG (19th), creating second-chance points.
- Moves the ball well, averaging 15.5 assists per game (89th).
- Struggles with three-point shooting, hitting just 29.9% from beyond the arc (335th).
Defensive Strengths:
- Forces turnovers at a high rate, averaging 7.9 SPG (66th).
- Shot-blocking presence, with 4.8 BPG (16th), making it difficult for opponents to score inside.
- Solid perimeter defense, allowing opponents to shoot 33.4% from three (192nd).
- Strong rebounding team, grabbing 24.9 DRPG (89th) to limit second-chance opportunities.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offense
| Metric | Georgetown (Rank) | St. John’s (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% (247) | 45.6% (147) |
| 3P% | 30.6% (310) | 29.9% (335) |
| FT% | 71.0% (217) | 70.4% (234) |
| Assists | 12.0 (259) | 15.5 (89) |
| Turnovers | 14.2 (158) | 11.4 (122) |
| Points Per Game | 69.2 (270) | 80.5 (47) |
Defense
| Metric | Georgetown (Rank) | St. John’s (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent FG% | 39.1% (16) | 41.6% (57) |
| Opponent 3P% | 33.6% (207) | 33.4% (192) |
| Defensive Rebounds | 20.6 (177) | 24.9 (89) |
| Steals | 8.0 (79) | 7.9 (66) |
| Blocks | 3.5 (53) | 4.8 (16) |
| Points Allowed | 65.0 (32) | 71.6 (179) |
Pace and Tempo
- St. John’s plays at a faster pace, attempting 66.0 field goals per game (6th nationally) and thriving in transition.
- Georgetown prefers a slower, more defensive game, relying on their 16th-ranked opponent FG% defense to control tempo.
- Edge: St. John’s – Their ability to push the pace and dominate the offensive glass will likely dictate the game.
Home/Away Performance
| Team | Home Record | Away Record |
|---|---|---|
| Georgetown | 10-3 | 3-4 |
| St. John’s | 13-0 | 3-1 |
- Georgetown is strong at home (10-3), but has struggled against higher-level competition.
- St. John’s is undefeated at home (13-0) and has proven they can win on the road.
- Edge: St. John’s – While Georgetown plays well at home, St. John’s has a better all-around team.
Matchup-Specific Factors
- St. John’s rebounding advantage (12.1 ORPG vs. 9.2 ORPG) will be a major factor.
- Georgetown’s perimeter defense (33.6% opponent 3P%) could slow down St. John’s already weak three-point shooting.
- Georgetown’s turnover issues (14.2 per game) could be a major problem against St. John’s defensive pressure.
- St. John’s ability to block shots (4.8 BPG) and force missed shots could make it tough for Georgetown to score inside.
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. John’s | -4.5 (-102) | o140.5 (-115) | -185 |
| Georgetown | +4.5 (-118) | u140.5 (-105) | +150 |
Prediction and Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score
Predicted Score: St. John’s 74, Georgetown 66
Winner: St. John’s
Spread Pick
Pick: St. John’s -4.5
Why?
- St. John’s dominates the rebounding battle, creating extra possessions.
- Georgetown’s turnover struggles will hurt them against St. John’s defensive pressure.
- St. John’s has won 9 of the last 10 meetings, though only 5-5 ATS in those games.
- Georgetown is solid at home but has not faced a team with St. John’s athleticism and pace.
Betting Insights
- Confidence Level: High
- St. John’s should control the tempo, forcing Georgetown into an uncomfortable style of play.
- Lean Under 140.5 – Georgetown plays slow, and St. John’s defense should keep them in check.
- St. John’s ATS trends: 12-7-1 this season, but only 5-5 ATS in last 10 vs. Georgetown.
Final Conclusion
St. John’s has the rebounding edge, defensive pressure, and scoring ability to take control of this game against Georgetown. The Red Storm’s ability to dominate the offensive glass will create second-chance points, while their defensive pressure should exploit Georgetown’s turnover issues. Georgetown’s strong home record and solid defense will keep them in the game early, but their struggles with ball movement and rebounding will make it difficult to sustain offensive success for 40 minutes. Expect St. John’s to control the tempo, wear down Georgetown, and pull away late to cover the -4.5 spread.
