Game Preview: Ohio State vs Iowa
Offensive and Defensive Strengths
Iowa Hawkeyes
Offensive Strengths:
- Shooting Efficiency: Iowa ranks 4th nationally in FG% (50.5%) and 20th in 3P% (39.1%), excelling in shot selection and scoring efficiency.
- Ball Movement: Iowa’s offense is highly effective, with 19.4 assists per game (2nd nationally) and an Assist/TO ratio of 1.9 (5th nationally), showcasing exceptional offensive execution.
- Scoring Power: Averaging 86.8 points per game (4th nationally), Iowa’s fast-paced offense is one of the best in the nation.
Defensive Strengths:
- Turnover Creation: Iowa forces 14.8 turnovers per game (37th nationally), disrupting opposing offenses and creating transition opportunities.
- Free-Throw Defense: Opponents shoot just 66.5% from the free-throw line (6th nationally), limiting their ability to capitalize on fouls.
Defensive Weaknesses:
- Perimeter Defense: Iowa allows opponents to shoot 32.8% from three (192nd nationally), which is vulnerable but not disastrous.
- Interior Defense: Iowa ranks 346th in FG% allowed (47.6%) and 328th in points allowed (78.3 per game), making them one of the weaker defensive units in the country.
- Rebounding: Iowa struggles to secure boards, ranking 328th in defensive rebounds, allowing second-chance opportunities.
Additional Insight:
- When Iowa loses, they tend to lose big. Only 2 of their 7 losses this season have been by 7 points or fewer, highlighting their susceptibility to significant defeats, especially on the road.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Offensive Strengths:
- Shooting Efficiency: Ohio State is effective from the field, shooting 48.2% FG (41st nationally) and excelling inside the arc.
- Free-Throw Shooting: With a 73.4% FT% (125th nationally), Ohio State is reliable in close games.
- Rebounding: The Buckeyes average 24.0 defensive rebounds per game (85th nationally), limiting second-chance opportunities.
Defensive Strengths:
- Perimeter Defense: Ohio State limits opponents to just 29.2% from three (4th nationally), effectively disrupting perimeter-oriented teams.
- Interior Defense: The Buckeyes allow 39.9% FG (31st nationally), excelling at contesting shots inside.
Defensive Weaknesses:
- Free-Throw Defense: Opponents shoot 75.9% from the line (345th nationally), allowing easy points in tight situations.
- Turnover Creation: Ohio State forces only 12.2 turnovers per game (203rd nationally), struggling to generate extra possessions.
Key Metrics Comparison
Offense
| Metric | Iowa | Iowa Rank | Ohio State | Ohio State Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 4th | 48.2% | 41st |
| 3P% | 39.1% | 20th | 32.7% | 143rd |
| FT% | 68.7% | 267th | 73.4% | 125th |
| Points Per Game | 86.8 | 4th | 79.7 | 64th |
| Assists Per Game | 19.4 | 2nd | 13.8 | 183rd |
| Turnovers Per Game | 10.4 | 47th | 11.5 | 129th |
| Rebounds Per Game | 30.0 | 307th | 31.5 | 247th |
Defense
| Metric | Iowa | Iowa Rank | Ohio State | Ohio State Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent FG% | 47.6% | 346th | 39.9% | 31st |
| Opponent 3P% | 32.8% | 192nd | 29.2% | 4th |
| Points Allowed | 78.3 | 328th | 71.3 | 183rd |
| Turnovers Forced | 14.8 | 37th | 12.2 | 203rd |
| Steals Per Game | 7.8 | 162nd | 6.7 | 160th |
| Blocks Per Game | 4.9 | 30th | 3.8 | 261st |
| Defensive Rebounds | 22.5 | 328th | 24.0 | 85th |
Pace and Tempo
- Iowa: Plays at a fast pace, ranking among the top teams in scoring. Their tempo favors high-scoring games with many possessions.
- Ohio State: Prefers a more deliberate pace, focusing on efficient possessions and limiting turnovers. They will likely aim to slow the game to disrupt Iowa’s rhythm.
Home/Away Performance
- Iowa (Away): The Hawkeyes are 0-4 on the road, struggling to translate their offensive efficiency to hostile environments. Their defense often falters in away games.
- Ohio State (Home): The Buckeyes are 7-4 at home, playing with confidence and using their defensive strengths effectively in front of their crowd.
Matchup-Specific Factors
- Perimeter Matchup:
- Iowa’s elite three-point shooting (39.1%) clashes with Ohio State’s perimeter defense (29.2% allowed, 4th nationally). Ohio State’s ability to contest threes could neutralize one of Iowa’s primary weapons.
- Rebounding Battle:
- Both teams struggle on the boards, but Ohio State has a slight edge in rebounding metrics. Iowa’s weakness in defensive rebounding (328th) could give Ohio State extra possessions.
- Free Throws:
- Iowa’s poor free-throw shooting (68.7%) could hurt in a close game, while Ohio State’s reliability from the line (73.4%) is a key advantage.
- Loss Patterns:
- Iowa’s tendency to lose by wide margins (5 of 7 losses by more than 7 points) adds confidence in Ohio State’s ability to cover the spread.
Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | +7.5 -110 | o156.5 -105 | +260 |
| Ohio St | -7.5 -110 | u156.5 -115 | -325 |
Prediction and Betting Insights
Predicted Winner and Final Score:
- Ohio State 81, Iowa 72
Ohio State’s defense, rebounding edge, and ability to control the pace make them the likely winner, especially at home.
Spread Pick:
- Ohio State -7.5
Ohio State’s ability to neutralize Iowa’s perimeter shooting and dominate on the boards aligns with Iowa’s pattern of losing big, making it likely for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.
Betting Insights:
- Confidence Level: High
- Trends to Note:
- Iowa is 0-4 on the road, making them a risky play away from home.
- When Iowa loses, they rarely stay close, with 5 of 7 losses by more than 7 points.
- Ohio State’s defense aligns well with Iowa’s offensive strengths, particularly in perimeter shooting.
Conclusion
Ohio State’s home-court advantage, defensive strengths, and Iowa’s history of large-margin losses make the Buckeyes the better play in this matchup. Back Ohio State -7.5 confidently, and lean toward the Over 156.5, as Iowa’s fast pace and defensive struggles could contribute to a high-scoring game.
