Buffalo Bills (-10) vs. Denver Broncos
Date: Jan 12, 2025
Time: 10:00 AM ET
Network: CBS
Matchup Overview
The Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos in an AFC playoff battle. The Bills, with their dynamic offense and strong home-field advantage, enter as 10-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Broncos bring a top-tier defense and a balanced offensive attack, aiming to upset the AFC East champions.
Team Breakdown
Buffalo Bills (13-4, 1st in AFC East)
The Bills feature one of the league’s most explosive offenses, ranking 2nd in points per game (30.9) and 12th in total yards (362.8 per game). Their rushing attack, powered by their 9th-ranked ground game (131.2 rushing yards per game), complements an efficient passing game (227.9 yards per game, 9th).
Defensively, the Bills are solid but not elite, allowing 356.6 yards per game (19th). They excel at limiting scoring opportunities, giving up 21.6 points per game (T-11th), though their 24th-ranked pass defense (226.1 yards per game allowed) could be a concern against a capable Broncos attack.
Key Strengths:
- High-scoring, balanced offense.
- Solid red-zone efficiency on both sides of the ball.
- Strong third-down conversion rate (44.1%, 7th).
Denver Broncos (10-7, 3rd in AFC West)
The Broncos rely on their defense, which ranks 9th in total yards allowed (338.3 per game) and 3rd in rushing defense (96.4 yards per game). They’ve been exceptional at keeping opponents off the scoreboard, allowing just 18.3 points per game (3rd).
Offensively, Denver is middle-of-the-pack, averaging 336.2 yards per game (22nd), with a decent rushing attack (112.2 yards per game, 16th) and an inconsistent passing game (212.4 yards per game, 20th). To pull off the upset, they’ll need a strong defensive showing and opportunistic offensive execution.
Key Strengths:
- Elite defense, particularly against the run.
- Excellent at limiting scoring opportunities.
- Competitive in physical, low-scoring matchups.
Key Matchups
- Bills’ Rushing Attack vs. Broncos’ Run Defense
The Bills rank in the top 10 in rushing offense, while the Broncos have the 3rd-best run defense. This battle will play a crucial role in determining which team controls the tempo. - Broncos’ Offense vs. Bills’ Pass Defense
The Bills’ pass defense has been vulnerable this season, ranking 24th. The Broncos will need to capitalize on this weakness to keep pace with Buffalo’s high-powered offense. - Third-Down Efficiency
The Bills excel on third downs offensively (44.1%, 7th) and defensively. The Broncos will need to improve their conversion rate (39.6%, 13th) to sustain drives and limit Buffalo’s scoring opportunities.
Prediction and Best Bet
The Bills are heavy 10-point favorites, and their offense should outpace Denver over the course of the game. However, the Broncos’ strong defense and ability to limit points make them a solid bet to cover the spread.
Prediction:
- Winner: Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Broncos +10
Best Bet:
Take the Broncos +10. Their elite defense can keep the game closer than expected, even if Buffalo ultimately prevails. Confidence Level: Medium.
