Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11) in a matchup of two teams struggling through disappointing seasons. With little more than draft positioning and pride on the line, both teams will be looking to build some late-season momentum and evaluate young talent. The Raiders enter as slight favorites, primarily due to their home-field advantage and slightly better defensive rankings.
Team Breakdown
- Las Vegas Raiders: Despite ranking 29th in points scored (17.5 per game), the Raiders have a capable passing attack, averaging 221.1 yards per game (15th). However, their rushing game is the league’s worst, producing just 78.1 yards per game (32nd).
Defensively, Las Vegas ranks 12th in total yards allowed (348.2 per game) and 9th in passing yards allowed (208.3 per game). However, they are susceptible to the run, allowing 121.2 rushing yards per game (17th). - Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville’s offense is marginally better, averaging 18.8 points per game (26th). They rank 25th in rushing yards (101.6 per game) and 23rd in passing yards (204.4 per game).
The Jaguars’ defense has been among the league’s worst, allowing a league-high 410.0 yards per game. They are last in both total yards and passing yards allowed (264.3 per game) while ranking 27th in points allowed (26.9 per game). Their inability to stop opponents on third downs (44.5%, 29th) has been a recurring issue.
Key Matchups
- Raiders’ Passing Game vs. Jaguars’ Secondary:
With the Jaguars allowing the most passing yards in the league, Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (or the current starter) has a chance to exploit a soft secondary and find success through the air. - Jaguars’ Rushing Attack vs. Raiders’ Run Defense:
While Jacksonville’s run game has been inconsistent, the Raiders’ mediocre run defense gives the Jaguars a chance to control the clock and keep the game close. - Third-Down Efficiency:
Both teams struggle to sustain drives, ranking near the bottom in third-down conversion percentage. Whichever team finds ways to extend drives will gain the upper hand in this matchup.
Prediction
The Raiders have a slight edge at home thanks to their superior defensive rankings, particularly against the pass. Jacksonville’s porous defense will likely struggle to contain the Raiders’ passing game, and their offense lacks the firepower to fully capitalize on the Raiders’ defensive vulnerabilities.
- Final Score Prediction: Raiders 24, Jaguars 20
- Best Bet: Raiders -2.5 (Confidence Level: Medium)
Las Vegas should have just enough offensive firepower and defensive stability to cover the small spread. However, with both teams struggling mightily, this is a lower-confidence pick in a game likely decided by turnovers and situational football.
