Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
Date/Time: Dec 22, 2024, 10:00 AM
Broadcast: FOX
Spread: Falcons -9
Team Overview
Atlanta Falcons (7-7-0, 2nd NFC South)
The Falcons are in the thick of the NFC playoff race and look to gain ground with a home matchup against the struggling Giants. Atlanta’s offense has been one of the more balanced in the league, ranking 7th in total yards per game (377.5) and 6th in passing yards (238.9). Their rushing attack is also strong, averaging 124.2 yards per game (12th).
This game marks the NFL debut of rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who takes over the starting role. Known for his strong arm and accuracy during his collegiate career, Penix is surrounded by solid weapons, including a capable offensive line and a dynamic backfield. However, rookie debuts often come with growing pains, and the Falcons will rely on their balanced offense to support Penix.
Defensively, the Falcons rank T-14th in total yards allowed per game (352.3) and are particularly strong against the run (116.8 yards per game, 13th). However, their pass defense has been a liability, ranking 24th and allowing 225.9 yards per game. Atlanta has struggled to get off the field on third downs, allowing a 44.9% conversion rate (31st).
New York Giants (2-12-0, 4th NFC East)
The Giants are enduring a miserable season and will start Drew Lock at quarterback in this game. Lock, who has shown flashes of potential in his career, has been plagued by inconsistency and turnovers. With a passing attack ranked 30th in the league (185.1 yards per game), the Giants have struggled to put points on the board, averaging just 14.9 points per game (last in the NFL).
The Giants’ defense has been slightly better than their offense but still ranks in the bottom half of the league. They are 23rd in total yards allowed (362.9) and 31st against the run (143.7 rushing yards per game). Their pass defense is a bright spot, ranking 7th in the league (200.4 passing yards allowed per game), but they will need to be sharp against Penix’s debut.
Key Matchups
- Michael Penix Jr. vs. Giants’ Pass Defense
Penix faces a challenging first test against a Giants’ secondary that has been one of the few strengths of their defense. His ability to stay composed and avoid turnovers will be critical in his debut. - Drew Lock vs. Falcons’ Pass Defense
Lock has a favorable matchup against Atlanta’s struggling secondary, but his inconsistency and the Giants’ weak offensive line may limit his ability to capitalize. - Falcons’ Rushing Attack vs. Giants’ Run Defense
The Falcons’ ground game is poised for a big day against New York’s 31st-ranked run defense. Expect Atlanta to lean on the run to ease the pressure on their rookie quarterback.
Prediction
The Falcons are the more complete team, and their balanced offensive attack, led by a strong rushing game, should dominate the Giants’ porous run defense. While Michael Penix Jr. is likely to experience some rookie growing pains, he is surrounded by enough talent to lead the Falcons to success.
For the Giants, Drew Lock’s inconsistency and a lack of offensive weapons will likely prevent them from keeping pace. While the Giants’ secondary might slow Penix at times, their inability to stop the run will ultimately decide the game.
Atlanta should cover the 9-point spread with a convincing win at home.
Final Score Prediction: Falcons 28, Giants 16
Betting Recommendation: Take the Falcons -9
