Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Date/Time: Dec 22, 2024, 10:00 AM
Broadcast: FOX
Spread: Eagles -3.5
Team Overview
Philadelphia Eagles (12-2-0, 1st NFC East)
The Eagles enter this critical NFC East matchup as one of the league’s best teams, boasting a dominant record and the NFL’s top-ranked defense. Offensively, Philadelphia thrives on the ground, leading the league in rushing yards per game (186.2) while ranking 4th in total offense (393.1 yards per game). However, their passing game is less efficient, ranking 28th with 187.0 yards per game.
Defensively, the Eagles are elite, leading the league in total yards allowed (296.6), passing yards allowed (173.4), and points allowed per game (17.6). Their ability to force opponents into tough third-down situations (34.1%, T-2nd) has been a key factor in their success.
Washington Commanders (9-5-0, 2nd NFC East)
The Commanders are having an impressive season and sit just behind the Eagles in the NFC East standings. Their offense ranks 5th in total yards per game (387.5), fueled by a strong rushing attack that ranks 3rd in the league (155.5 yards per game). Their passing game is middle-of-the-pack, ranking 16th with 218.4 yards per game.
Defensively, Washington is solid but not at the same elite level as Philadelphia. They rank 9th in total yards allowed (337.2) and 4th in passing yards allowed (189.6). However, their run defense is a weakness, ranking T-24th and allowing 132.1 rushing yards per game. On third downs, they struggle, ranking 22nd with a 40.9% conversion rate allowed.
Key Matchups
- Eagles’ Rushing Attack vs. Commanders’ Run Defense
Philadelphia’s league-best rushing offense is a clear mismatch against Washington’s 24th-ranked run defense. The Eagles will likely look to control the game on the ground, wearing down the Commanders’ front seven. - Commanders’ Rushing Attack vs. Eagles’ Run Defense
Washington’s 3rd-ranked rushing attack faces a tough test against Philadelphia’s 7th-ranked run defense. Success on the ground will be crucial for the Commanders to keep the Eagles’ high-powered offense off the field. - Third-Down Efficiency
Both teams are strong offensively on third downs, but Philadelphia’s defense holds a significant edge in stopping conversions (34.1%, T-2nd) compared to Washington’s 22nd-ranked third-down defense (40.9%).
Prediction
The Eagles’ ability to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball gives them a significant edge. Their rushing attack should exploit Washington’s weak run defense, while their elite defense, particularly against the pass, can neutralize the Commanders’ balanced offensive approach.
The Commanders have the tools to keep this game close, particularly with their strong ground game, but their defensive vulnerabilities and struggles on third down will make it tough to upset a complete team like Philadelphia. Expect the Eagles to cover the 3.5-point spread, securing a pivotal divisional win.
Final Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 20
Betting Recommendation: Take the Eagles -3.5
